Over 50k hands at 4nl fr this month my c-bets in hu pots are working at least 45% of the time on average almost regardless of flop texture. My btn steal success is always around 50% as well. It doesn't matter if my button steal is 95% or 60%. I almost always cbet 2/3 pot because I've found this works far more often than if I start throwing in half pot or 3/5 pot sized bets. Also some people start calling really light while others won't to half psb or less and it's just easier to stick with 2/3 psb.
So I was thinking hey if my c-bets and button steals are working this much I should be able to steal at least 85% on the button, cbet every flop, and print money. Unfortunately it seems whenever I do this I start losing unless I go back to my normal 60%ish btn steal. I'm not quite sure why this is though.
It could be that I'm not giving up enough after the flop, but this isn't it. It could be that I tend to open more hands from other positions besides btn/co when I start opening more hands there as well, but I've stopped this. The only thing I can think of is that people donk out a lot at 4nl. It's about 33% of the time against me I think, and it's usually always with something that won't fold to a raise. That would explain why my c-bets are working so much. It's really hard for me to float these people and keep track of exactly what's going on because I 18 table and 1 table stack.
I think the problem is I have to be folding the best hand too often on the river. It's nice that I can win a lot of pots on the flop, but they're going to be small pots. I have to be making too many mistakes on the river when the pot is going to be inflated from me c-betting the flop too much and since I'm mostly playing the field c-betting the flop a is not ever going to be optimal.
I really want to find out what's optimal against the field. Maybe people are so spazzy postflop that I can tighten my btn/co ranges even more and I would do better even though people are folding to btn steals and c-bets so much? Playing tighter would make it easier to multitable and keep me from being exploited by the regs who 3-bet me a lot although I'm not worried at all about that yet.
My winrate is 2.5ptbb over 50k hands so far and I'm running slightly under allin-ev in HM, but I also don't think I've had many set over sets or KK into AA. I'm not sure how to go about finding out what's optimal against the field and right now I think I'm going to have to resort back to trial and error. I know poker is played with people and things depend, but if there ever was a place to play the field it would be 4nl fr. I'm really interested to hear your thoughts.