As I said in a previous blog entry, I will do a full out and out report on sports betting either a quarter or halfway point in the season. But, I reached a milestone yesterday, so I wanted to share it. I crossed the +1k line! What's funny is the stakes I'm dealing with aren't much compared to poker, but it's a new revenue stream and fun, so it's a good challenge/fun to cross this threshold. As the season continues to pickup, both my unit size and games wagered will increase, so (hopefully!) I'll be able to make money at a faster clip (I lost the chance to wager several days when I was w/o internet, but I'd say it's about ~+1k in 2wks) - technically this paces me for +12k or so which would make me fall way short of the goal (+35k) but again, for all the reasons mentioned above, this is a real positive sign. So, just pleased that milestone has come.

I had the first meeting with the EU group! I'm going to meet with the US group later tonight (technically 5 hours) but I'm pretty exhausted (in a wakeup super early schedule) but regardless that's the plan. I think it went well, the 1st was just very cursory but we ended up discussing quite a lot.

http://www.portfolio.com/news-market...oom?print=true.

I'm linking that article since I think it's a very good read. I like Michael Lewis - Moneyball was fantastic - and well, what he says just makes a ton of sense. Don't want to say too much more, except "read it" and I'm open to discussing it in the comments. (Very open to discussing, in fact, I'm encouraging discussion!)

My place is still not complete, but I wanted to post the new developments: (My room is somewhat of a mess as I've moved my clothes in there and still require a bureau)

~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zx3m4e45bTo

My Favorite 10 Songs:
- #41 (Dave Matthew's Band)
- Bittersweet Symphony (Verve)
- House of the Rising Sun (The Animals)
- No Rain (Blind Melon)
- Fake Plastic Trees (Radiohead)
- King Without a Crown (Matisyahu)
- Mrs. Potter's Lullaby (Counting Crows)

I suppose I have an affinity for British bands. This song was great in Cruel Intentions. No real story, but I feel bad I wont have any Beatles songs on my list - I like the Beatles alot, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ym0x3vTw6yc
that's my favorite song of theirs because of the harpsichord solo. (In fact, when I first heard that song, made me want to play the harpsichord... for a day or two) But overall just don't like any individual song more than the songs already in my top 10. Even though their body of work was very impressive and enjoyable.
So, back to the Verve, they sorta flamed out. "Lucky man" was a good song too. I think this song brings me back to Sophomore year in high school when my roommate was Oliver Style - he was from San Francisco/London, (yeah, talk about truly bi-coastal) and a pretty good guy. He liked the Verve alot. I haven't spoken with him in a while, so perhaps I owe him a facebook message or something.
Sophomore year was fun because I played a ton of cs (counterstrike) after study hall. Well, it was fun for a ton of other reasons, but I'll leave that for another day!

It's nearly been a week since my last blog, so clearly I felt one was required. The past few days have been spent getting my TV mounted on my wall; getting cable/internet; not only getting my bed, but getting a new bed frame since they initially gave me the wrong one; fixing outlets/minor problems; etc. Yesterday I finally got internet, so I don't need to go to Gary Stevenson's solely for internet. (Obv it's fun to go over there, but atleast if I want to check my email I dont need to use my blackberry or drive 10 mins or pirate a connection that only lasts a few mins!)

I need to buy a new couch. I had a nice one last year, but Dave got it + money (I got a bookcase I'm currently using and the TV in the trade) but it's a good thing anyway since I don't think that couch would fit. (It was an incredibly soft leather sectional that was pretty big) My "goal" tomorrow is to look at them and hopefully get one. Once that's done, it's all about getting a bureau (wow it took me a long time to spell that word, tough one!) and then hanging up curtains/a mirror and then the place is just about finished. (Well, not "finished," but comfortable) Pictures will follow, but it simply isn't ready YET!

I had emailed both groups (both groups have officially 6 people, so there will be 12 sessions at the initial price which is great for the people that registered!) and the idea was to have a meeting this week, but it seemed few could do it Sat/Sun, and the one day people could do it (Thursday technically yesterday although it's 445 AM and I haven't gone to bed yet, obv, so it's still Thurs to me) my internet was being installed. (I missed them earlier so they had to come back - thrilled they did that) I am going to email them and just try to schedule the 1st Monday, how hard is it to get everyone on the same page?

I missed a few days of sportsbetting since I wasn't able to attack the lines, but in between I'm on a minor upswing. The units are still small, so it's akin to the fluctuations of a ~100NL player, but it still feels good! (I suppose I'll give quarterly updates to the tune of amount wagered, rake paid, etc - but that will have to come ~20 games in, not yet!) While still on this subject, as noted in the comments from the last blog (quite a discussion there about Iverson!) I made 2 new bets. 1500$ on Det wins straight up vs Cle wins. And 1500$ on who goes further in the playoffs. Both are with "victor," who I have yet to win a bet against. (last year he got the best of me - luckily for him - in Cle wins vs Tor and Was)

~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWOMuvTQg3U

My Favorite 10 Songs:
- #41 (Dave Matthew's Band)
- House of the Rising Sun (The Animals)
- No Rain (Blind Melon)
- Fake Plastic Trees (Radiohead)
- King Without a Crown (Matisyahu)
- Mrs. Potter's Lullaby (Counting Crows)

I've loved this song pretty much since the first time I heard it. I don't have a true story that goes with this song, other than I'm not sure (I don't think so) The Animals wrote this song - I had heard that it was an old, old song that they covered. It's been covered by other people, such as Joan Baez, Pink Floyd, Bob Dylan, etc. but the Animals do it the best. So that's why I listed them!

Further, I didn't want to make it seem as though my entire music life is 90s and later. I like old stuff too! Anyway, enjoy, I especially like this line:
any references to "gamblers" in epic songs or so forth make me like them, largely. (in fact, "The Gambler" by Kenny Rogers is high up on my list, but not in my top 10) The Organ solo follows that too, so it's hard NOT to like it. I'll keep this one short - later ya'll!

So, I truly have been racking up the miles! Not sure my last update of Foxwoods (aside from "leaving in an hour!") but it was a solid trip. Sorta a waste given how I need to get things done, but was fun seeing friends and random people as well as playing a sesh. Travis drove me to Northampton, MA (where my car was) and then I drove down to West Hartford, CT. (I suppose this is the 6th, Thursday)
I slept all day, woke up when my mom came back from work, and pretty much watched basketball. (Speaking of which, had a good past few days, finally back to even in terms of units, which is nice ) Yesterday after my mom got back, we went to see Religilous (yah 2nd time for me) which she enjoyed, and went to a decent restaurant afterward called Tapas. I had lobster bisque to start - my FAVORITE soup.

Today I need to drive back to Boston (just waiting for my mom to get home so that we can eat lunch together - technically my breakfast) so that I can be there when my mattress gets in. I will post pictures, but I got a super awesome bed. It was pricey, but I sleep alot, and sleep is important, so it's something that is worth splurging.

Group coaching seems to be getting together. I'm waiting on about 3 people per group before we can get started, but it looks like ~13 people have confirmed and are ready to go. So am I! Come on people!

In between last post and this, AI was traded for Chauncey and McDyess - this is a win for Denver. AI makes the pistons a little worse, and Chauncey makes the Nugs that much better. I posted some predictions and changes in 2p2 SE, so I wont overburden it here, but it certainly makes the East (and West!) more appealing.

Last note before hopping over to the top 10 list, I had 5% of Alex and Adam (Gary Stevenson/AAIsmyfriend) in the foxwoods main event. I would've played, but given all the moving around and so forth I couldn't commit the time to it. Adam busted day 2, but Alex is still in (it's midway through day 3) Let's gogogo Alex! I feel Alex is a GREAT cash game player, so obviously in a live tourney grabbing a % of him is printing money. That said, he certainly could brush up on some of his push/fold maths, as I think when shallow he makes a bunch of mistakes (folds). But he has a huge edge when deep/over the common WPT player, so GO MONEY.

~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmVn6b7DdpA

My Favorite 10 Songs:
- #41 (Dave Matthew's Band)
- No Rain (Blind Melon)
- Fake Plastic Trees (Radiohead)
- King Without a Crown (Matisyahu)
- Mrs. Potter's Lullaby (Counting Crows)

So, I think Blind Melon were 1 hit wonders. I mean, I never really listened to any of their other songs; I don't remember/know any of their other hits (IF they even had any?); and they certainly did not last a while. I heard this might have been because their lead singer die. That said, this was one of my *earliest* song memories, dating back to my sleep-away camp days. Being nostalgic for a little while, "waxing" on that section, I could listen to it repeatedly then, and probably still good. Almost a childhood song? (Juxtaposed by something like Fake Plastic Trees, where I wouldn't have understood/enjoyed it nearly as much when little!)
The other story worth mentioning while bringing up this song is that a girl in my 2nd home town (although wasn't really my hometown) - Weston, CT - (this will be a choppy story, bear with me) this was her favorite song. Anyway, I moved to Weston ~9th/10th grade from New Canaan, CT (which is like a 20 min move, heh, maybe 30 with traffic!) but it did not affect me since I went to boarding school.
I made a few friends in the Weston area regardless (due to working in the summer, largely) and one of my friends was named Jessica Krane. (I suppose she still is a friend, but we certainly had a weird friendship) While in highschool, a friend of hers (mentioned briefly above, I don't know her name) died while driving home, not due to alcohol or snow or anything, but because apparently she bent down while driving to pickup her phone and drove into a tree. This played at her funeral (I obviously was not at the funeral) but I know this because whenever I listened to this song with Jess she pointed it out. Not exactly my best literary paragraph(s), but it conveys the message!

Bringing this back to the whole group thing, I'm going to be working on dealing with the absolute best way to play a hand. Much like "vs an unknown," we're going to call this poker methodology.
I wanted to close with a hand I randomly plucked from the ~top of our SSNL forum:
http://www.leggopoker.com/forums/sma...-bet-4002.html

6handed hero OTB makes it 2.5 bb to go w/ Q9ss. Hero has 105 bb, blinds are 80 and covers for stacks. Flop comes A 9 4r w/ 1 spade, check check. Turn is the 6s, villain leads 5bb and hero makes it 15bb. River is a dud, and checks through. How do we think about this hand?

Preflop our hand is known as a tier 2 hand grouping; it certainly is worth an open, and in general (depending on stacks and size) we are calling a 3bet. The amount hero opened (2.5) is irrelevant. Once we get smoothed pf, there is little more to say about this street. (Which is nice, I didn't want to get into an intense lecture about pf!)

On the flop, it's a type 1 flop due to the dryness, with our situational hand value being midpair/bdoor flush, so we have a marginal made hand. On this sort of board I fancy checks due to shutting out move makers on this board, a common theme that I'd likely practice with any 9 through KK. We probably should be delayed cbetting any gutshot or paint/paint. I'd cbet bluff random paint/air (Q2o for example) and any TP+ for value. i would probably bet any underpair lower than an 8 as a bluff. Once we check through (in a vacuum, the "right" play) there is little more to say.

On the turn, there is a 13 PSR, but we have position - our situational hand also changed, to that of a situational dependent marginal gamble. (Marginal because we're so deep) In other words, if checked to us, we may opt to check again, since we're way ahead (they have fewer than 5 outs, possibly draw dead or 1) or slightly behind (a hand like AT, which is never folding, we have a full 14 outs, or nearly 1/3rd equity). We could have actually hit that 6 (hands that we could've checked behind that like the 6: (96s/o, 66, 46o/s, 57, 78 ss) - but if they had a hand situationally better than ours, there is no reason to think they suddenly are behind. (Contrast this to say the Qd, where a hand like TT may feel they've gotten outdrawn)

Given we got led into, raising (and opening ourselves up to get 3bet) is fairly disastrous in the scenario they actually do 3bet us. We can't suspect a hand stronger than ours (2pair, set, perhaps a big ace that flatted) to call and check the river, so we're ruining our made hand value - simply because due to the dry nature (board changed from type 1 to 3, fwiw) there aren't many (especially since we have spades, too) 3bet draw hands they could have. So from a combinatorics perspective, even if they are super tight with value range (not doing this with AK) and shoving every combo draw (AXss has us, so even if we limit it to 75ss, 78ss, T8ss) we are crushed and should raise/fold....

Firstly, congrats to Vanessa Selbst ("fslexcduck") - she won ~120k for taking down the Foxwoods 2k event. Coincidentally, I got here just as she won (or rather, just after). So that's pretty cool!
She's coming back with Adam (AAismyfriend) today, so I'll be able to see them before I head out.

Rolling back, since coming back on my flight:
I stayed at the Inn at Harvard an additional day. (That night 30th-31st) - the following day knocked out some errands and drove to Amherst. The idea was to get a U-haul there, pack up all my stuff that was left in Northampton (I drove the stuff there before going to Vegas, most of my stuff has been at GKA's parents house for nearly half a year at this point!)

I ended up watching some bball with Teddy (Tbach24, GKA's brother, a good friend of mine) then slept at Bach's parents house. Saturday the 1st I played some pickup bball (FTs are rounding back into form, but my range still isn't what it was a few months ago, but my form is getting back in place) and got the U-Haul/packed it up with all the stuff. Stayed another night there until I drove to Boston Sunday the 2nd.

Gene, a friend who drove all the way up from Philly, met me in Boston and we ended up moving all my stuff in the dark. It was pretty cool, and tough work, but we got it done. The original plan was to stay there and drive to Foxwoods Monday, but we decided to just say screw it, and drove in that night. (Which is the day Vanessa won the tourney)

So, it's ~7am here, and I suppose this is the 3rd day I've been here. I'm staying with Alex (Gary Stevenson) and Travis (Costanza_G) who drove down to meet us as well. It's been OK. I have played one session (+4.6k, yay, will talk about it below) and the poker is decent, but Foxwoods isn't close to Vegas. It seems as soon as 11pm comes around there's nowhere to eat. So that's brutal.

Actually, on the topic of Foxwoods, it's nice running into people. I've been able to see a student of mine, Dan, who I actually played with at 10/20; Shaundeeb, GobboBoy, and John the Lawyer. So in terms of people, I guess foxwoods has been nice. BTW, FW is in the middle of nowhere...

Sportsbetting update, kbfc/Assani/Asa and I have beaten the marketplace consistently. Obviously it's very early, but we're ~20 of 23 on beating the market. That is SICK. Our PD (point differential; when we've grabbed a line vs closing) is probably >2 at this point. FWIW, on a 5% vig, you beat the market when you have an average of a 1 point advantage. For us to have a minimum of a 2pt advantage (and we're pretty sure our line is closer to the true line) It's akin to putting money at a 49:51 clip while being 56:44 favorites. Of course though our sample size has been ultra limited (we've been pick) and due to some bad luck (variance is huge, and includes losing a recent CHA game by half a point!) I'm down about 4.5 units. Really nothing to worry about, clearly I'd rather be up though!

Kinda random as well, but I was thinking about it on my journey across Mass in the Uhaul, but I used to love (and still do) the Myth of Sisyphus.

It's worth a read for whomever has some spare time.

Other notes:
-Group Coaching will be kicked off soon. Some people have confirmed then reneged on it, so I need to get people to lock down and confirm. It does look like both groups will run at full capacity, which is great.
-Isura and I tried to do the video commentary today, but there was a problem with the Skype program we were using. Apparently I haven't done a video in a WHILE, so this 2parter should be some nice rejuvenation. Anyway, this is the top of the priority list.
-Along that vein, probably going to leave Foxwoods late tonight. (Or tomorrow, depending on how you measure a day!) Just have way too much to do in terms of getting my apartment setup.
-Going to buy a new bed. It's unbelievable. Wanted a temperpedic, but I think I found an even better bed. Sleeping is important!

~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeowFbvpu0U

- King Without a Crown (Matisyahu)
- Mrs. Potter's Lullaby (Counting Crows)
- #41 (Dave Matthew's Band)
- Fake Plastic Trees (Radiohead)

I only got into Radiohead this past year; I kinda ignored them for whatever reason, and now I have every CD of theirs (except Amnesiac). They probably are my favorite band - they're just great.
So, what story to link with this? Two little shorties:
1. Green Plastic (GP) he of cardrunners stardom based his name on this song. I don't know GP aside from sparring with him in 2 or 3 posts on strategy dating back years on 2p2, but the fact he based his poker handle on this song makes him pretty cool in my book. If only I had the foresight to be pick KARMA_POLICE or something instead of Zelijostocko! (Not that I mind my name, I like it quite a bit, it just lacks aplomb )
2. My roommate last year, Dave Tufts, got me into Radiohead. So, I am thankful he did, since I really, really got into them. Not much of a story but a human element, since we were able to share music tastes, which made living with him a bit better. I missed the opportunity in August to see Radiohead in Boston, but hopefully I don't miss them next opportunity!

So I was a little bit rusty playing poker. It had been a while since I had last played, and further my last live session didn't go well (@AC). I sat in a 5handed 10-20 game which unfortunately ended up filling fairly quickly. Aside from one guy who I'm 92% positive nailed a few hands on me, I torched everyone. (But that one guy made a decent amount from me! Always had a hand, 2 spots on my right) The table was playing fairly tightly postflop, which I think I was able to take advantage of. I made a few plays I consider spewy (in a vacuum) but given the reads I had on the table felt suited the table. Here are a smattering of any hands worth mentioning:

vs the guy that seemed to get the best of me...
My very first hand in the 5 handed game, there is a 5k cap and I had pulled out ~4k in cash, a guy limped and this ~kid (mid 20s? overweight from what he told me Tampa later) raised to 100, I made it 325 with AJo from the SB (so I suppose my 2nd hand!) and he 4bet me 650 more. It seemed really weird that I would get 4bet the first time I play a hand, and I was tempted to do a nonstandard thing for me which is spaz shove, but I think (and I hate isolating HH frequencies to such a degree) but his 4bet is AK 95% of the time. So after asking him his name, and where he was from, I mucked my hand. Some people would just flat here, and whether that is correct depends on a ton of other factors. This hand though led me to the (incorrect) assumption that this guy was highly aggressive; afterall, it's rare to see 4bets live off the bat unless it's an online player!

When it had filled to 6 or 7 handed, he raised an UTG limp to 100 and I CCed the btn with 86o. We were 5k deep, fwiw. Limper overcalled, and 3way we took a A T 7r flop. Check, pfr bet 225, and I called. This is what I call a weak passive gamble with an option of floating; it isn't a necessary float, but 86 is a stronger peel then say 67 or 44....

So, my flight was pretty brutal. I generally take the red eye back from CA to MA, and essentially it's so that you can sleep on your flight and wake up "ready for the day" (adjusted to the time difference). Except, for me, I can never sleep by 10 (when the plane took off) and I also can't sleep on planes (in general) so it's just a normal plane ride, except dark and everyone else is sleeping. I also got a middle w/ no extra room, and flew United (horrible airline), was seated between 2 people taking up a fair amount of space, and my chair was slightly broken since I couldn't recline it that far. End the "waa waa" section. On the plane I started to read "the Black Swan" and frankly it just wasn't that good. Got a decent amount into it, but I'm not sure if I'm going to finish it. Anyway...

When I left for CA, I was told by the parking staff in Logan (Central Parking) to park in a handicapped spot. I had my reservations, and voiced them - three times. ("I don't mind walking further"/"I don't feel comfortable parking here"/etc.) and I shouldn't just ignored them and listened to myself. Obviously upon arrival I got a 200$ ticket. And it cost that much to park there for a week. (Blech! Feels like I was bled!) Oh well.

CA was fantastic. I had a great time. It was not the right timing, since I'm trying to get group coaching off the ground, move into a new place, make new videos, get adjusted to the NBA season, etc. But I did it anyway and it was worth it. A note: I saw "forgetting sarah marshall" 2 days ago, and it was an awful movie. Not funny. I loved superbad, and it just seemed like forgetting sarah marshall needed 30 mins editing (just chop off 30 mins) and better acting from the main lead. Also, it just wasn't a good plotline, so that limited its potential. It wasn't as bad as "rachael getting married," but it was close.

BUT! yesterday, I saw "religulous", and I thought it was fantastic. Absolutely marvelous. I find Bill Maher to be VERY funny, but the documentary was well put together as well. The fact that I agree with alot of what he has to say is obviously a primary reason that I enjoyed the movie, but it def gets a strong nod of approval.

So, moving to NBA stuff, things are going well. We've plunked down 6 bets on over/under, and we're 6for6 on the line moving our direction. (Which means we've consistently beaten the markets) Results wise I'm only ahead a small amount of money (relative to poker ) so I'll save that stuff until I reach milestones/my goal. But, I'm very excited. (And, I'm thrilled for NBA regular season action! I love the NBA!) Since I jotted down in the last blog my win futures, I decided I was going to jot down my random sporting event prop bets that (hopefully!) you guys can sweat with me: *I think all are good bets for me, obv, as I'm not one to make a -EV bet, but would appreciate feedback on these.

With "rakes.a.beach":
He has lakers over 64.5, he's laying 200 to win 100
He has spurs +3.72 (meaning +3.5 ) over jazz 50 to win 50. (This is wins in the season)

With "morello": (*for the record, I HIGHLY respect morello's basketball opinion. He's a goddamn short stacker, but he knows a ton about bball)
He has 1k on the Pacers final standing in the East. If they miss the playoffs, I lose. If they make it, I win.

With "Victor":
If LeBron resigns with the Cavs, I have to change my avatar to whatever he wants. If he resigns elsewhere, he needs to change his avatar to whatever I want.

With "Kbfc": (My bball business partner!)
Straight up 500 on Biedrins (me) TS% vs Bynum. Min. 1k mins.

With "ZJ123":
200 on Wiz O/U. 38.5 is the line, I have the under.

With "POKEROMGLOL":
500 on the Mavs O/U. 50 is the line, I have the under.

~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1qb1...eature=related

-King Without a Crown (Matisyahu)
-Mrs. Potter's Lullaby (Counting Crows)
-#41 (Dave Matthew's Band)

No story here, really. I really like DMB. Alot. Actually, I have more DMB CDs than any other band. I normally do not like live music much, but I LOVE DMB's live stuff. And studio sound. (1 other band, that you will see later on the top 10, is VERY close in CD count though, so don't despair!) Anyway, had to get some acoustic mixing in there, and DMB wins that spot. Hopefully others can agree what a great song that is. Crush is a close 2nd, though, and NEARLY made the list.

So, I went to check out my new apartment today. I got keys, but the place isn't *quite* ready. I move in Nov 1st (2 days) and they need to fix a closet and clean the place up. Also, I realized I am the only non-Irish person in the building. I'm actually pretty excited about this: The owner of the building is named Martin, and from Ireland; the guy I met who I believe is the manager is named Cerill, and has a very thick Irish accent. I met one of my neighbors, and elderly lady who had a very Irish sounding name.

Why is this exciting? Well, when I was younger, (10 I think) I went through a phase where I wanted to be Irish. I wanted people to call me Robert Ford (an invented last name), simply because I thought that was really cool. My Uncle Robert (who reads this blog from time to time, so perhaps he'd like to comment on this) actually sent me a tape of Irish songs. (After listening to it, though, I decided I didn't really like Irish folk songs that much) Here are some pictures: (Keep in mind these were taken in a rush with my blackberry, I will have better later)

My brand new kitchen:


My bathroom (wow my photography is bad here)


My entry way...


NOTE: If you've PMed me, and I have NOT gotten to you, PLEASE leave a comment. I got a TON of messages, and I THINK I spoke to everyone, but it's possible I missed out. I'm NOT ignoring you, it's a legit mishap on my end.

Finally wanted to throw a poker example in here! I've been talking about a million different things the past month or two. With hardly any poker! I get the sense some of you would rather read poker stuff. So, here it is, a tidbit I was thinking about today on AIM w/ a friend/student.

Student/Friend: What about this situation: You have 99 and call a cutoff raise from the button and the flop is 88 2 turn is an ace and he bets and we call, is it an automatic call down on the river
“- i feel like in a spot liek that i generally call down a lot”
“- cus people are second barreling the turn with a ton of there range, but will they shut down if you call the turn, probably not since you never hanve an ace”

Well, basically…
- i am surprised you dont c/r the flop
-SH people are so paranoid, you get floated, you get value called by 77 + under, and you get people making macho moves with like QT
[I normally c/r wider for value on type 1]

if you c/r and get called, and the turn is a ace: you can check fold (since they're going to PC worse, and the hands...

Diamond Lie brought it to my attention there is a Matisyahu concert the 29th in Boston. This is very frustrating as I fly back then. Gary Stevenson and my friend Skye (yeah, it's his 1st name, not his 2p2 log in or anything ) are going, but I'm going to miss out. Bummer.

I completed the details for group coaching. I posted it: http://www.leggopoker.com/forums/gen...html#post29396

I also have been pretty good (by my standards) of getting back to PMs. If I missed you, I'm going to knock out 1 more round of them before I sleep. If you sent me a PM via 2p2, I missed it because I'm involved in the "modern era NFL draft," (lots of fun, not QUITE as fun as the NBA one though) and I've gotten/sending out tons of PMs, so book ones get overlooked. (I prefer to have book stuff come through leggo) FWIW, my team (32 teams, players must have played 1986+) is:
Mike Singletary LB
Derrick Thomas RLB
Terrell Owens WR
Jared Allen DE
Kenny Easley SS

Those were my guys round 1 through 5. I have another pick coming up. My co-owner, Jeff W, was actually a student of mine a long time ago - he was (is?) a brilliant limit player that switched over to NL. He also knows a TON about the NFL. We've done a good job together, and I must say his expertise has shown. I was going to take Samurai Mike with my 1st and TO in the 3rd, but I wasn't sold on Derrick Thomas (great pick in the 2nd im) and Jared Allen, so that was all him. (And the Easley pick, who knows!) The rules are kinda strange and not worth going into, but it's just a fun exercise where I'm learning alot about the NFL. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/46.../index104.html

I had my 4 fantasy bball drafts, and I'm not quite as pumped as I thought. I drafted OK, but hey, I'm just excited for the season to start! (tomorrow!) I'm in the HSNL 1k, MSNL 500, SE 100, and the one carry-over from last year, the "20 team H2H SE 50$". I'm the commish of that one Despite that one being the lowest financially-laden, certainly the one I've spent the most time preparing for. The other 3 are all roto leagues. (With 14, 14, and 12 teams respectively)

For a little insight on the sports betting world:
When the win totals (and futures) were announced, I started doing a ton of research (my own projections vs the lines) and saw MANY spots FULL of equity. Unfortunately, I moved slowly (mainly because as noted in a previous blog it's very difficult to move money online as an American; also, only a few places in Vegas will accept win total bets) and so all the lines changed. The bad news is all my lines got worse. That's right: Every single line changed the way I expected them to. The good news is it means my projections were far better than the opening lines, which means I must be doing a good job of analyzing things.

So it's a double edged blade or something like that. I was able to place a few bets, but it was sickening to know that a. I could've gotten SOME lines in better spots had I been able to bet earlier b. I've gotten a worse price as well given the aforementioned and c. I could've made more +EV bets, but have to just sit still with whatever meager lines I feel still shed value. (The difference between opening and closing lines is insane, for the laymen: The best time to strike is when the books open, since they have a surprisingly good ability at adapting and shifting lines to the more correct price)

OK City Thunder under 26.5(-115) risk $2300 to win $2000
NY Knicks under 31.5(-105) risk $525 to win $500
Atlanta Hawks under 37(-115) risk $575 to win $500
Utah Jazz over 51.5(-120) risk $600 to win $500

I wanted (and may get, hopefully) 2k on the Pacers over 33.5 (which was the 2nd best line of them all, but I'm having trouble getting money on them) and 500 on the Celtics at over 54, but again neither of those are confirmed. So, these are my 1st 4 NBA bets of the season. Good luck me! (Fwiw, Okc line did not change at all; NYK was the only one that moved in my favor, going from 29.5 to 31.5; and Atl opened at 39.5, which was a jokingly great deal, but at 37 is only decent equity. The Jazz opened at 51.5, but -120 is not as good as -110, which is where it opened)

As far as me DOING stuff in CA, well, I've been staying with Noelle. (Obviously ) We've had a great time. I also have visited my dad/Rene/Amanda (twice), and that went fine. Funny enough, my dad had a published comment about the hiring of Singletary as 49er's head coach. (He is not a fan; I obviously like Singletary alot and think he should be given a chance!)

~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDRvbqOiEtw

-King Without a Crown (Matisyahu)
-Mrs. Potter's Lullaby (Counting Crows)

My story about this song: (I'll try to keep it quick!)
-I love the Counting Crows, and it is hard for me to label my FAVORITE song of theirs. I actually could name several other songs, and accompanying stories, but "MPL" tops them all. Yes, this song is so special to me, I created an entire acronym devoted to its majesty. During high school, GKA and I got a little obsessed with this song. I think I listened to it ~30 times in a row or so. Regardless, we really wanted to *know* who Mrs. Potter was. We conjectured constantly, trying to understand the lyrics, break it down, etc. When I say "constantly," I mean more like for a full week. (hmm, this reflects badly on me, doesn't it? ) We however found out (much to our chagrin I suppose) that it simply is about the actress Monica Potter.


Yeah, kinda buzzkill, huh? I mean, she's hot, but we wanted more. Sometimes a song is not as deep as you think!

*Also, in case you wondered, I haven't had a video out in about 2 months. Yah! Well, I had alot going on, so I couldn't make one. That said, there are going to be 4 on tap:
-2 parter with Isura
-Me 1tabling so it's Ipod friendly (no DRM!)
-Powerpoint theory

Hope that gets people interested.

Before I go into details of my life, I want to say "thank you" to all those who emailed, pmed, and wrote a note wishing me condolences for the loss of my grandmother. That is/was a very nice thing to do.

With that said - I am in San Fransisco now - the flight (yesterday) was brutal. I was stuck in the VERY back of the plane (back corner), so I couldn't lean my seat down very much. Further, the woman ahead of me stuck HER seat very far down. Also, there was a baby crying the row next to me. Trifecta there! The one silver lining was I was sitting next to a very nice woman named Jane Bradbury (who apparently makes dolls, http://www.dollery.com/html/artists/...radbury-mm.htm) and we ended up talking for ~4 of the 6 hours. Various topics too - she was flying to New Zealand to visit her daughter who lived there. Anyway -

I bought the tickets nearly last minute (impulse buy?) so they ended up being pretty expensive, and since the flight wasn't good (lots of turbulence too) that's never fun.

So! Moving along, I finally found a place. Funny enough, the one place I really liked (when looking to buy) had a unit right below it to rent. I signed a 5 month lease (it's a joke how much real estate agents make; a full month's worth of commission, I likely should've negotiated but I was hasty to get things wrapped up as I had to leave the following morning). So, I now live in Cambridge (not Somerville anymore!) near Central Square. Central Square isn't as pomp as Harvard Square, but I'm a little closer to Celtic games, and the unit is awesome. It's on Magazine street.

The idea is to gauge whether I like it or not, and if I do, buy the unit above me. I'll post pics when I get back from CA - move in day is Nov 1st. (looooong overdue - a full 3 months of homelessness!) *On this note, several people have asked if I'm going to foxwoods, and I probably SHOULD, and likely WILL, but given I'm here in CA and moving takes priority, I can't promise anything.

On that note, I wanted to do a small thing in my blog which is basically make random top 10 lists. Well, not so random. I always love lists - in fact, that's how I got started in coaching. (in a way - making lists of things, and categorizing) I love Aristotle for his categories, but that's another discussion. (Wooooo aristotle, boooooo plato) So, I'm not going to specify the ORDER of my 10, but rather, today I want to begin my "top 10 songs". And, somewhere 1 through 10, is Matisyahu's King Without a Crown. (Live Version, Stubbs)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EBiei21-C8

-King Without a Crown

Two stories about this song:
1. My very good friend Alex Wilson (Dubness, Gary Stevenson) is somewhere ~2-5 on the FLB. (Depending on the day) Anyway, he and I don't really see eye to eye on music. I don't MIND or HATE rap/hiphop, but most of it does not appeal to me. He feels the same way; whenever I have Radiohead, the Beatles, Aerosmith, Dispatch, etc. in my car, he generally rolls his eyes. In fact, the joke is a friend asked him if he recognized the song "Dream On" once. Alex's answer the Beatles?. So, he does not care for that genre of music.
So, when I heard this song, I recommended it to him. At first, Alex was very apprehensive; afterall, we don't see eye to eye on music! Finally, he listened to it, and... loved it! Possibly even more than me. One trip to Turningstone (leaving from New Haven, coming down to Westport, and allllll the way there) we listened to live at stubbs for the 4 hours+ straight. (I would sing loudly, obv) So, I love it, he loves it, and frankly, it's a great song.

2. I've gone to 2 Matisyahu concerts. I haven't gone to "2" of any other bands, so I suppose that in itself is somewhat landmark. The 2nd one I went to was in San Jose, 2 years ago. I drove down alone in my step mother's car, (because it had GPS, I didn't know my way around San Jose!) and got there. (I went alone - queue "1 is the loneliness number") The concert was fine, although he was an hour late, and went late as well, so I didn't leave the venue until 2 am. Not a problem. I didn't realize the gas was low, until I was near the Golden Gate Bridge. I got on the bridge and realized I needed gas ASAP. So, I took the very 1st exit off the GGB... (Off-tangent, but I HATE the GGB, and don't understand how/why it's so beloved. Terrible to drive over)
The first exit off the GGB is I THINK Sausilito, but it actually leads to a mountain side. It was also VERY foggy this night. As I found out, there is no gas station off this exit, so here I was, 3am+, foggy weather, somewhat lost, driving with a gas light on. I decided to input the closest gas station on the GPS, and it started leading me through the mountain. with every mountain twist, I was more convinced I was going to run out of gas and be stranded there.
However, I was fortunate to reach the 1st gas station! It was completely dark, and as i found out... Did not shelve out gas whatsoever. Hmm, not so lovely. I inputted another gas station, and several minutes later, boom, a dark gas station.
I ended up calling the police (couldn't find a triple A card) since I wasn't going to make it much further, and since they didn't have much to do, a dude came about 20 minutes later. I explained my situation, and he was actually pretty happy to help. I got to ride in the police car (although, wasn't allowed in the front, so I was stuck in the back - which is VERY uncomfortable, I learned that they keep it that way to remove the plastic seats in case people throw up / spit / bleed etc, they can just hose it down). We got to a gas station, and I pumped gas into a Big Gulp. I got about 3/4 a gallon in there.
We got back, and it was a huge chore putting the gas in the tank via the big gulp (wellp, cya later) but it ended up working. I then drove and followed him to the gas station that WAS open, filled up, and went on my way. Finally got home around 4:30 or so. How does this relate to KWOC? Well, he didn't even sing this song at the concert! IIRC, atleast.

~~

I have gotten a ton of PMs about the book. Which is awesome. Hopefully I answered all of them. If I did not, please feel free to comment here or send another. (If I just posted this, and you're reading it, give me an hour, since I have READ them all, and was planning on sending messages out, so just wait the hour :P )

About group coaching, I want to post a full writeup about how I am going to incorporate everything. In fact, I'm pretty pumped, since it's a new challenge, a "think tank" type exercise. I actually feel not only will I learn alot from it as well, but it could revolutionize the way coaching is done. We'll see!

~~

I've run into a tiny bit of trouble with sportsbooks, as I'm an American. This is a HUGE drawback. So, currently looking into some alternate ideas - my initial idea of grossing 75k was contingent upon not worrying about depositing limits. Since I may be restricted for a while, that seems over confident and optimistic, so I'm now toning it down to about half that: 35k.

I also wanted to post 1 last basketball thought. We're looking at home/away splits right now - the numbers show the home team wins about 60% of the time. (This is a HUGE advantage)...

Hey all. My grandmother died a few days ago, and the funeral was yesterday. (well, technically 2 days ago, it's 2AM)

http://www.legacy.com/HartfordCouran...onId=118901743



So... Funeral was alright. It was nice to see a ton of family. It's hard to have a funeral be "nice" or "good" etc. But, that's what I've been up to. I traveled today to GKA's (dave) apartment in Amherst, so I'm going to be here tomorrow/play bball/that sort of thing. Watched the sox game 6 (very nice! game 5 was sick too) so i'm pretty pumped for game 7.

anywayyyyyy would have more to say, but I'd rather this entry be solely devoted towards my Grandmother's obituary. Later

Unfortunately I haven't really DONE a ton lately, so my blog leaves alot to be desired. Well, I went back to West Hartford for a few days to "celebrate" Yom Kippur. That went fine. I like spending time with my family.

But my real mission has been to find a home. I've been staying at the Inn at Harvard (it's nice, and I like it, but damn hotels are costly) but I've truly slacked. I have had a cold for the past week (so I've mainly wanted to sleep) but I dont have a good excuse for why I haven't found a place yet. Well, I suppose the reason is I looked at some places to buy, found 1 I liked considerably, and then realized it's impossible to get a mortgage so that was wasted time. Not fun.

The second sub mission concerns my book (it seems I'm constantly getting PMs and explaining the situation) and there is VERY GOOD NEWS. The news is twofold: The problem with DRM that I initially had seems to have a fix (as well as a clever solution that I will explain later*) and I've made progress w/ Tickner about FINALLY having a private forum (for just people who have bought the book) created.

I did an interview 2 days ago with a guy named Tim Laquintano. The interview was very cool - he's in the process of getting his PhD, and is studying (I think?) how online writing is changing what we know about writing in general. Since he's a poker player, the way he's doing this is looking at people who have in turn written about poker. I think it went well, and I'm very excited to read his final paper.

I was supposed to go on Poker Road and do an interview yesterday, but I was bumped for a more important person - Mr. Aaron Jones ( :P ). I think this was moved to sometime later this month, so I'm pretty excited for that, too.

In lieu of Seabeast crushing tourneys, and since I haven't played poker in about 2+ weeks, I decided to play a few tourneys. Several hours later, I grossed +~117$, and I don't feel that pumped about tourneys. I guess the definition of insanity ("doing the same thing repeatedly, and expecting different results" or something like that?) applies to me, as I really expect to win one. Soon! (I haven't won a tourney in a long time... I haven't played that many, but I still would like to win one!)

My sister was on the NY Times front page last week. (Pretty cool!)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/fa...=5070&emc=eta1

She did this as a favor to a friend who needed to take pictures during a lunchbreak not knowing what it was for. As an unexpected reward, she landed on the first page of the NY Times! The picture on the left was the original picture, and I don't think it looks like her - she said the camera was 2 inches in front of her face etc etc. The picture on the right doesn't look like her either, obviously, in fact it looks alot like Christina Ricci.

I really enjoyed her quote: She added, “I would like to keep my original face.”
<3


The 1st 2 pictures are from the article (rushed photo, the computer changes)
The 2nd 2 pictures are what I feel is a more accurate representation of her, and what Christina Ricci looks like.

Anyway - I am in 4 fantasy BBall leagues, 3 roto and 1 h2h. They are a 500$ MSNL, 1k "baller" HSNL, and 100$ 2p2. As well as a SE 50$ 20 teamer, which I was the commish last year (and will be again). The drafts are staggered throughout this week, so crossing my fingers that I do a good job!

Finally, while waiting on Halo 3 games, Gary Stevenson created a game. It would be perfect for David Sklansky. I then added a change which IMO made it that much better. Anyway, it's a neat way of practicing some NLH skills.

You get dealt 1 card. There is 1 blind. Ace is high. 2 is low. No limit. 1 round. Once a bet is called, there is a showdown; higher card wins.

After a bet is called, there is a 1 card flop. This is called "the shotgun". There is another round of betting. Still no limit, obviously. If you have the Kc, then:
The Ac or Qc (2) shotgun would yield a straightflush >
The other Ks (3) yield a full house >
The blank As and Qs (6) yield a straight >
The other clubs (10) yield a flush >
No improvement.

Needless to say, it's alot of fun. That's about it for now, it's 330, and hopefully I can sleep and feel better!

Some information in life is worth nothing. For example*, directions to the nearby cafe; Aejones' favorite color; and how many HRs Ken Griffey Jr. hit his rookie year. This is because the information is either very easily accessible (mapquest/asking a neighbor, asking the man/myth/legend, baseballreference) or because it does very little for you. Brief interruption: "Information" alone generally cannot be used to make money. Rather, it's the implementation of information that allows one to profit. Applying this to poker, knowing that your opponent has a certain hand in a particular spot is very nice, but the real beauty is then being able to use that knowledge and perform the optimal action (whether it be bet, call, raise, fold, etc.). I want to add here that people make mistakes on the 2nd part far too often - GATHERING the information should be the tough job.

*Take a right off properzi, continue walking for .7 miles, it's across the street; blue; and 16 as a 19yr old.

Some information can come in handy but has low inherit value. For example, detailed knowledge of the US civil war. The reason this information is higher on the food chain is because it would take some time to learn all about the civil war. And, once you know about the civil war, it's possible you could parlay the skill into a tour guide job or something. Other information, though, has actual value (to differing extents, of course). Finance, nuclear science, and I suppose poker are things that few have "mastered," and there is great financial incentive to learn (and then apply) said art.

This blog entry is not about poker, though. It's about the NBA. This coming season I intend on making a decent amount of money betting on games. I'm not quite sure what my goal should be. That said, even though I come from a background that loves sharing (and in turn, learning/growing/getting better at the particular subject) I need to hold back most of what I've been spending all my time on. So, I'm sorry! I am attaching an interesting picture that doesn't really show anything of value, but provides some fun for NBA fans.



What this graph displays is that pace (or speed that you play) really doesn't correlate with point differential. At all. (Point differential is typically a better barometer of team success than win-loss, although I have those figures too) The reason this is a cool graph is that many coaches/GMs/analysts feel a team needs to "slow down" or "speed up" (philosophy-wise) for the purpose of generating offense or helping defense or [insert cliche] and the truth is it really doesn't matter. Although, I enjoy watching fast basketball > slow!

~~

I moved hotels to the Inn at Harvard, which is a big step up from the Holiday Inn. I'm here for another day+, and then I'm going BACK home to be with cousins/etc. for Yom Kippur.

FINALLY, I've sent out some PMs regarding the book, which is basically explaining what the hold up was, and that it should be (after a 3 month hiatus!) back on the markey. Soon. *About this, a guy contacted me about doing an interview regarding the book/process/selling it online, and I'm pretty excited for the interview. I think it'll be fun.

Looping around (I know I said "finally" but it's my blog, so :P ) NBA futures were announced yesterday. A "future" is simply a teams chance of winning the championship (this changes as the season goes on; like a future in the stock market, you can buy or sell it throughout the course of the season). Also, win-totals were announced. My immediate impression is that the futures didn't look very +EV (they generally aren't, Vegas makes sure of that!) but there are a few really horrible over/under lines. I likely will put down a decent amount of action, but I'm going to be tight lipped for the time being.