Leggo Poker Every Tool You Need To Win

aejones

Stories and Adventures of an Implied Millionaire

Nov
16
2009
Bunch of stuff
Posted in Poker | View Comments (9)
 

I apologize for not updating, I've had a lot going on lately. I'll try to say as much of it as I want to say in as close to chronological order as possible.

I've been golfing a lot lately. I'm not very good, but recently a good friend of mine got into it. I golfed 1 year in high school, rarely went to any of the practices, and only did it because one of my teachers who was cool as hell told me that if I golfed he'd letter me. Our golf team was absurdly bad, and I actually shot varsity once as a freshman. I did terrible but we were playing someone even worse and obviously my score was dropped (I think you had to keep 4 of 5 scores or something). Anyways, it's weird that we picked this up so late in the year, but we found a few nice November days that it was in the 60s and went. I shoot mid-50s on 9 probably. And that was after I spent a grand on clubs.

Last week we hit a deer coming back from golfing. Fucking Indiana. This thing came jumping out of the corn and almost got across the car but we hit its right hind leg right around our right headlight. We ran absurdly good here (after running absurdly bad, obviously-- kind of like getting flush over flushed and losing the minimum) because the deer got undercut and went spinning like a boomerang off into a ditch. We were shook up a little bit but certainly okay-- that bastard could have easily rolled up on our hood and smashed through the windshield. Certainly we could have been injured or killed but everyone was unscathed. The deer was not so lucky, and is slated to become a rug.

Since my AIM got hacked, I haven't played any poker or logged into anything important on my desktop (waiting to eventually wipe the HD). I played exactly 3 sessions on my laptop. I won 25k at 25-50 HU, I won 70k at 50-1 HU, and I lost 20k playing 40-80 deep (1 tabling, running absurdly terrible in a bunch of small-medium sized pots, was very annoying). I just bought a macbook pro, so I'm going to be able to play on that some in the future. Also, hopefully I'll get my HD wiped before Thanksgiving just in case. I've got a video coming out soon. It's really good and I play super aggro and get aces a few times and beat up on some fellow Leggo producers.

The Colts/Pats game was great last night. Spectacular ending and controversial decision. I am not a football analyst by any means, but I think given the circumstances it was probably an "okay" decision to go for it on 4th and 2 (up by 6 with no timeouts and just over 2 minutes left on their own 30). I know that Belichek is a genius and it's simply an equation with the variables being: How often the Pats win when they convert the 4th and 2 (very often), How often the Colts score from the Pats 30, How often the Colts score from the averaging starting spot after a Pats punt, etc. (there are a few other less important variables). Either way, I know NFL teams don't go for it nearly enough because people don't understand EV and they are results oriented (also, remember, the negative outweighs the positive in people's minds). I could go on and say more about it, but EV wise his decision was probably pretty close to neutral, and I'm no football analyst so I'll leave it at that.

Probably are other things I'm forgetting or don't want to say, but that's all I got for now.

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11-16-2009
klink- is offline klink-
i thought it was a very good decision, especially the conversation rate of pats offense vs. a pretty terrible colts D that were getting their asses handed to them all game, coupled with the fact that manning is pretty much money in these 2 minute drill spots.
11-16-2009
ssells73 is offline ssells73
where do you play out in Indiana? i played golf 4 years at marian catholic in chi heights IL, I used to play Briar Ridge all the time out there and Palmeira (sp.)
11-16-2009
BobboFitos is offline BobboFitos
even the most pessimistic breakdown of that situation shows going for it to be marginally better. It was an awesome call that I don't think anyone other than BB would've done
11-16-2009
toocrispy is offline toocrispy
i love how all these nfl "experts" are super results oriented. Kinda makes me wanna sit w/ them at a poker table
11-16-2009
housenuts is offline housenuts
here's what analysts think...they punt, and lose, it's the defenses fault. punt and win, good defense, and good decision to punt. go for it and lose, terrible decision. go for it and win, risky decision that got lucky.

basically they feel if they punt the coach did everything he could to win and game rests on team's shoulders.
if they don't punt game rests on coach's shoulders. that being said they will never say it was a good decision not to punt, because even if they win, they could have still won by punting without the risk.
11-16-2009
btimm is offline btimm
btimm's Avatar
Interesting, I just read this by Brian Burke (though I thought it was a good call all along):

New England Coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th-down conversion from his own 28 with a late 6-point lead against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion, 35-34. Was the decision a good one?

With 2:08 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful 4th-and-2 conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A conversion on 4th-and-2 would be successful 60 percent of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53 percent of the time from that field position. The total win probability for the 4th-down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP (WP stands for win probability)

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their 34. Teams historically get the TD 30 percent of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than 30 percent chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it’s pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that makes punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.
11-16-2009
btimm is offline btimm
btimm's Avatar
As for golf. I have golfed a long time and before i lost the time to play enough to stay good, I was a scratch golfer. I will make one suggestion this is counter intuitive to most people: buy the shitty golf balls. Balls make more difference than most people think, more than clubs imo. The spin generated on the various golf balls can differ by a factor of 3, which is huge. The high spin balls generally cost a fair amount, like Titleist Pro V1 balls and are geared towards better players. Lesser balls that give more distance take away from the spin and are geared more towards people just learning the game. I suggest the low spin balls. The reason is simple - it will reduce the effects of your hooks and slices. It is a case where spending more money for a person learning the game can actually make you play worse. Just my $0.02.
11-17-2009
the fox is bak jak is offline the fox is bak jak
i hit a kangaroo going to work this week and i don't really have the money to fix it straight away so fuck australia..
11-17-2009
Isura is offline Isura
Wiping a hard drive doesn't remove all trojans/viruses. Stomp/destroy old hard drive imo.
 
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