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aejones

Stories and Adventures of an Implied Millionaire

Oct
05
2008
Old School All-nighters, Variance in Baseball
Posted in Poker | View Comments (11)
 

OK so the last few nights, excluding tonight, I got a little stuck, or games were great, or both, and I ended up grinding all night. The first night I had a friend over and so there were some people in my room until 9 AM playing 'high' (relatively) stakes. This was pretty fun, since they were tipsy and arguing with each other over every play- and in general getting owned by an atrocious regular. I had a handful of heads up tables and maybe some 6m tables, I don't remember. Anyways, I ended up doing a bunch of swinging, never really getting stuck more than 40k or so, and winning some in the end. The next night was more of the same. I came home to my parents house for the weekend to watch the Sox, and I ended up staying up until the sun came up for some reason playing online. I think I won this night too, but everything is starting to get pretty blurry. I played more today and won some. I think the month is going good and I've been on the super grind patrolling the streets. I will have to ask for Probability's help in getting my hands from my laptop to my desktop, and I'll throw a HEM graph at you guys about 1/3 through the month. Although I played just okay towards the end of the week, I've been on point playing this weekend. Very pleased with that.

In additional poker news, I like the new Leggo site. It's much more aerodynamic or something. My roommate told me that in general it's a bad idea for websites to have dark colors, but I think it works okay with Leggo because it's a lot of grays and graphite type colors. I'm sure there will be even more features once the site gets smoother, and I'm excited to see the new front page. Leggo now have a forum on 2+2 as well. This is cool because most of us are originally 'from' 2+2, so it gives us our own little 'gang-gathering' to BS and whatnot within the site that started it all for most of us. I'd like you all to give that forum some traffic; it's a good place to get our attention, give us praise, tell us what you want, etc. Just another outlet, but I like when Leggo gets high exposure.

Also, I wrote a new strategy article/ ongoing thread type thing in the Private Strat Forum. I think it's good, and it gives an overview of lots of vernacular that poker players use everyday. Some of it will turn out to be simple, and other parts of it will be more complex to its audience. In the end, I just hope to keep a running tab on lots of poker terms, and I think the thread will explode with explanation (alliteration intended). Check it out and let me know what you guys think, and also keep throwing strat suggestions and I'll keep bugging every Leggo Coach that you want to write an article.

I'm not doing my official blog to review Fooled By Randomness just yet, but I wanted to talk about the variance in baseball briefly for some reason. The White Sox sort of suck right now, but it's still pretty unlucky that they lost the first two games in Tampa Bay. Despite having a stellar regular season, the Rays were a pretty good team for the White Sox to draw in the first round. Unfortunately, it's extremely gay that they play in this ugly-ass dome on turf. I cannot, for the life of me, understand who approved a team in Tampa Bay to get a dome. The astro turf really makes baseball unwatchable- there are just so many stupid variables and home field advantage things. How can baseball be pure and such when it's played on carpet? I can only imagine a prominent basketball team switching to rubber or carpeting to play on; it would be the most absurd thing ever.

I'd say that the Sox don't win game 1 very often, simply because Vasquez has been very mediocre at the end of this year. Despite him always having sick 'stuff,' he's always wilted in the big game. Oh well, I just pray if we somehow force a game 5 he doesn't start. If he does, I'll cry and be all mad and throw a tantrum in my blog. More than likely, they'll start Buerhle on 3 days or go to Clayton Richard- both things I would approve of. The second game was a complete heartbreaker for me though. I'm positive they win that game more than 60% of the time, especially given that they put 2 on the board in the first inning (that is, if you calculate their odds of winning at that point in time it was much higher than 60% even). Mark Buerhle is simply nasty. Aside from Jamie Moyer, no one does more with an 86 MPH fastball and average other pitches. Mark does all the little things right. He's absolutely unreal. An unlucky error to let the first run come in, and then a mistake out over the plate and some chump who hit 6 HRs during the regular season tattoos it to the opposite field. So gay. Most of this 'timing' stuff that everyone talks about in sports is just HRL (hidden random luck).

Anyways, I'm going to the game tomorrow and sitting in Club seats. I'm pretty excited. Unlike the chokers across town, the White Sox expectations weren't high enough for me to be let down. Despite having the division lead for most of the year, I'm just glad they got in the playoffs this year. I cherish every Sox playoff game I'm able to go to, and the fact that they won it in '05 was more than I could ask for. As long as the effort stays strong in the front office, I'll be a happy camper. I could go on and on about the Sox, but it's about time to put a bow on this particular blog post.

Finally, you might see me running people off the RailHeaven streets in the coming weeks. We've put a little corporation together and we've decided those games are too soft not to take a shot at them. We'll see how that goes; I'm sure it'll be the cause of an agonizing blog post in the near future.

Be good.

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Comments
10-05-2008
SEABEAST is offline SEABEAST
Corporation, niiiice. Should be interesting
10-05-2008
shootaa is offline shootaa
GL at railhaven.
10-05-2008
IcarusJam is offline IcarusJam
crush degenyamine plz
10-05-2008
FcKme2Tears is offline FcKme2Tears
a Sox fan calling somone else chokers, hilarious. Yes I'm from MN
10-05-2008
aejones is offline aejones
aejones's Avatar
FcKme2Tears,

That must be hard.
10-06-2008
adcamp is offline adcamp
Not nearly as hard as being a fan of the team a couple miles north.............
10-07-2008
Green Plastic is offline Green Plastic
Disclaimer: I am a Cubs fan.

It's insane to think the White Sox win more than 60% of the time against the Rays in Game 2. The opening line was Rays -150, so the bookies think the Rays actually win 60% of the time. Kazmir was nasty at home all year (sub 3.00 ERA) and the Rays are the second or third best team in baseball. Buerlhe's record was 15-12 on the season, so he's not even winning 60% of his games overall, much less on the road against a superior team. If you really thought that the Sox were 60% to win this game then there is no logical reason not to be piling as much money as possible into betting this game.

I agree 100% with you that the playoffs in baseball, as well as sports in general, are filled with random luck. I've been telling everyone on the North Side this very thing for two months when all my friends have been guaranteeing a World Series for the Cubs. Unfortunately, nobody believed me, and now everyone is citing some ridiculous curse.

MLB playoffs should open with a 7 game series and even then you are still basically coin flipping. I guess it makes the playoffs more exciting, it just sucks to come in with a heavily favored team and get your ass kicked when in reality you probably only win the series at most 55% of the time.

Good luck with the Corporation.
10-07-2008
Probability is offline Probability
Probability's Avatar
Win millions.
10-07-2008
aejones is offline aejones
aejones's Avatar
Quote:
Disclaimer: I am a Cubs fan.
As always, I apologize.

Quote:
It's insane to think the White Sox win more than 60% of the time against the Rays in Game 2. The opening line was Rays -150, so the bookies think the Rays actually win 60% of the time. Kazmir was nasty at home all year (sub 3.00 ERA) and the Rays are the second or third best team in baseball.
I don't bet sports, with the exception of fantasy football and march madness, because I think it would be a pretty bad habit to start.

Tampa Bay hit a whopping .246, 27th in the entire Major Leagues this year against lefties. The Japenese Second basement, whatever his name was, Iwogema or something, hit 1 homerun in 200 plate appearances against lefties in the regular season. He now owns 1 home run against lefties in well under a dozen plate appearances in the postseason.

Buehrle was almost unhittable nasty against them with the exception of that 'mistake' I guess. Kazmir struggled over the last few weeks of the season, and he hadn't pitched into the seventh in his last dozen starts. He looked absolutely awful, but the Sox kept bailing him out one way or the other. He'll get torched against the Red Sox, I'll take the under on 6 innings and the over on his game ERA of 6.0- either for up to 2k in his next start.

I might be underestimating the advantage of playing on carpet slightly, but the Sox still win that game over half the time and if I did bet sports I obviously would have put 20 dimes on the Sox at -150.


Quote:
MLB playoffs should open with a 7 game series and even then you are still basically coin flipping. I guess it makes the playoffs more exciting, it just sucks to come in with a heavily favored team and get your ass kicked when in reality you probably only win the series at most 55% of the time.
I think in some cases it's much higher than 55% for sure, but for the most part that sounds about right.
10-07-2008
klink- is offline klink-
if you don't mind saying, who's all in this railhaven corp?
10-08-2008
Green Plastic is offline Green Plastic
i'll take 2k on the ERA bet. PM me on 2p2 to confirm
 
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