Leggo Poker Every Tool You Need To Win

BobboFitos

Nov
08
2008
November 8th, Hartford (again), new bed, list cont
Posted in Poker | View Comments (18)
 

So, I truly have been racking up the miles! Not sure my last update of Foxwoods (aside from "leaving in an hour!") but it was a solid trip. Sorta a waste given how I need to get things done, but was fun seeing friends and random people as well as playing a sesh. Travis drove me to Northampton, MA (where my car was) and then I drove down to West Hartford, CT. (I suppose this is the 6th, Thursday)
I slept all day, woke up when my mom came back from work, and pretty much watched basketball. (Speaking of which, had a good past few days, finally back to even in terms of units, which is nice ) Yesterday after my mom got back, we went to see Religilous (yah 2nd time for me) which she enjoyed, and went to a decent restaurant afterward called Tapas. I had lobster bisque to start - my FAVORITE soup.

Today I need to drive back to Boston (just waiting for my mom to get home so that we can eat lunch together - technically my breakfast) so that I can be there when my mattress gets in. I will post pictures, but I got a super awesome bed. It was pricey, but I sleep alot, and sleep is important, so it's something that is worth splurging.

Group coaching seems to be getting together. I'm waiting on about 3 people per group before we can get started, but it looks like ~13 people have confirmed and are ready to go. So am I! Come on people!

In between last post and this, AI was traded for Chauncey and McDyess - this is a win for Denver. AI makes the pistons a little worse, and Chauncey makes the Nugs that much better. I posted some predictions and changes in 2p2 SE, so I wont overburden it here, but it certainly makes the East (and West!) more appealing.

Last note before hopping over to the top 10 list, I had 5% of Alex and Adam (Gary Stevenson/AAIsmyfriend) in the foxwoods main event. I would've played, but given all the moving around and so forth I couldn't commit the time to it. Adam busted day 2, but Alex is still in (it's midway through day 3) Let's gogogo Alex! I feel Alex is a GREAT cash game player, so obviously in a live tourney grabbing a % of him is printing money. That said, he certainly could brush up on some of his push/fold maths, as I think when shallow he makes a bunch of mistakes (folds). But he has a huge edge when deep/over the common WPT player, so GO MONEY.

~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmVn6b7DdpA

My Favorite 10 Songs:
- #41 (Dave Matthew's Band)
- No Rain (Blind Melon)
- Fake Plastic Trees (Radiohead)
- King Without a Crown (Matisyahu)
- Mrs. Potter's Lullaby (Counting Crows)

So, I think Blind Melon were 1 hit wonders. I mean, I never really listened to any of their other songs; I don't remember/know any of their other hits (IF they even had any?); and they certainly did not last a while. I heard this might have been because their lead singer die. That said, this was one of my *earliest* song memories, dating back to my sleep-away camp days. Being nostalgic for a little while, "waxing" on that section, I could listen to it repeatedly then, and probably still good. Almost a childhood song? (Juxtaposed by something like Fake Plastic Trees, where I wouldn't have understood/enjoyed it nearly as much when little!)
The other story worth mentioning while bringing up this song is that a girl in my 2nd home town (although wasn't really my hometown) - Weston, CT - (this will be a choppy story, bear with me) this was her favorite song. Anyway, I moved to Weston ~9th/10th grade from New Canaan, CT (which is like a 20 min move, heh, maybe 30 with traffic!) but it did not affect me since I went to boarding school.
I made a few friends in the Weston area regardless (due to working in the summer, largely) and one of my friends was named Jessica Krane. (I suppose she still is a friend, but we certainly had a weird friendship) While in highschool, a friend of hers (mentioned briefly above, I don't know her name) died while driving home, not due to alcohol or snow or anything, but because apparently she bent down while driving to pickup her phone and drove into a tree. This played at her funeral (I obviously was not at the funeral) but I know this because whenever I listened to this song with Jess she pointed it out. Not exactly my best literary paragraph(s), but it conveys the message!

Bringing this back to the whole group thing, I'm going to be working on dealing with the absolute best way to play a hand. Much like "vs an unknown," we're going to call this poker methodology.
I wanted to close with a hand I randomly plucked from the ~top of our SSNL forum:
http://www.leggopoker.com/forums/sma...-bet-4002.html

6handed hero OTB makes it 2.5 bb to go w/ Q9ss. Hero has 105 bb, blinds are 80 and covers for stacks. Flop comes A 9 4r w/ 1 spade, check check. Turn is the 6s, villain leads 5bb and hero makes it 15bb. River is a dud, and checks through. How do we think about this hand?

Preflop our hand is known as a tier 2 hand grouping; it certainly is worth an open, and in general (depending on stacks and size) we are calling a 3bet. The amount hero opened (2.5) is irrelevant. Once we get smoothed pf, there is little more to say about this street. (Which is nice, I didn't want to get into an intense lecture about pf!)

On the flop, it's a type 1 flop due to the dryness, with our situational hand value being midpair/bdoor flush, so we have a marginal made hand. On this sort of board I fancy checks due to shutting out move makers on this board, a common theme that I'd likely practice with any 9 through KK. We probably should be delayed cbetting any gutshot or paint/paint. I'd cbet bluff random paint/air (Q2o for example) and any TP+ for value. i would probably bet any underpair lower than an 8 as a bluff. Once we check through (in a vacuum, the "right" play) there is little more to say.

On the turn, there is a 13 PSR, but we have position - our situational hand also changed, to that of a situational dependent marginal gamble. (Marginal because we're so deep) In other words, if checked to us, we may opt to check again, since we're way ahead (they have fewer than 5 outs, possibly draw dead or 1) or slightly behind (a hand like AT, which is never folding, we have a full 14 outs, or nearly 1/3rd equity). We could have actually hit that 6 (hands that we could've checked behind that like the 6: (96s/o, 66, 46o/s, 57, 78 ss) - but if they had a hand situationally better than ours, there is no reason to think they suddenly are behind. (Contrast this to say the Qd, where a hand like TT may feel they've gotten outdrawn)

Given we got led into, raising (and opening ourselves up to get 3bet) is fairly disastrous in the scenario they actually do 3bet us. We can't suspect a hand stronger than ours (2pair, set, perhaps a big ace that flatted) to call and check the river, so we're ruining our made hand value - simply because due to the dry nature (board changed from type 1 to 3, fwiw) there aren't many (especially since we have spades, too) 3bet draw hands they could have. So from a combinatorics perspective, even if they are super tight with value range (not doing this with AK) and shoving every combo draw (AXss has us, so even if we limit it to 75ss, 78ss, T8ss) we are crushed and should raise/fold. Further, we have no true FE - so a raise here should narrow villains range (generally) to some draws that feel they are priced in (but dont possess FE to 3bet) or hands that "dont believe us," which scale from something like A2 to the villains actual hand, T9.

Basically, Villain calls and checks a blank river - Hero asks if we should VB. Absolutely not. If the player tendency (which changes the ABC play) is such that you can VB, sure - but in a vacuum, esp. given we have a 9, his range should be weighted more towards AX, and we actually shouldn't expect to win in a checkdown more than ~40% of the time - never mind when we bet how often we lose when called!

Had we just called, perhaps we can put the 2nd bet (the raise on the turn) in a call regardless of the river, further widening villains' bluffing range, and if checked to (since they could've paired the end, also a check means more 9x stuff that feels they cant squeeze a bet in, etc.) obviously we can launch the bet - thereby winning the same amount. We also dont get blown off our hand, so on an improvement, we can raise or shove over a river bet. Etc etc.

So should Hero look for value on the river? No. But he shouldn't have built the pot to that dimension anyway - squeeze the turn raise in on the river. All this, of course, is assuming unknown players. In group I will be asking more questions that could change this hand (various river cards, actions, etc.) but I'll leave this up for now.

edit: Also want to mention when I washed my clothes, I left my wallet in a pair of my pants. Ugh It was the 2nd time I've done this - it's a very nice wallet (a Prada wallet my mom actually got for me in Italy) and the quality of the leather has been substantially changed (for the worse) meh

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Comments
11-08-2008
still is offline still
I think AI is going to create a lot of open shots for Prince/Hamilton that Billups never really did since it's not really his game as Iverson is obviously going to attract more attention from defenses and get to the hoop more. I still feel as though Rasheed takes too many 3s which is problematic considering how good of a post player he is. Hopefully, Stuckey's development continues, he looks like he can be an awesome player.
11-08-2008
btimm is offline btimm
btimm's Avatar
Yeah, they certainly are banking on Stuckey a ton, but I like the move as a Pistons fan (and one whose favorite player was Billups). I think that this will be good for Detroit as AI will come in hungry and I think help change the complacent attitude of the Pistons. The question in my mind concerns Joe D. and what his long term plans for the Pistons include, because with AI's contract ending this season and not next, are they going to be okay to chill for a year and try to sign LeBron/Wade/Bosh? The rumor I keep hearing is that Dumars is really into Bosh, and that seems like a possibiliy (since I don't really feel LeBron/Wade are real possibilities in Detroit). It will be interesting to see for sure.
11-08-2008
still is offline still
I completely agree. They definitely seemed to lack the same fire that they had in the past. Also, Billups is starting to slow down a bit and I think I'd rather have Iverson for one year and have more flexibility than have Billups for 3+ as great as he was. I think it's important to note that Rasheed's contract is off the books this year as well which makes their cap # go from $71 mill to $33 mill which is pretty amazing given the mess that certain teams are in and performing so poorly (my Knicks Q_Q). The free agent class this year isn't overwhelming compared to 2010 but there are certainly some nice options that they can look at (i.e. Boozer) but when you think about the potential team that they will have w/ rip+stuckey+prince I can see how that would be very attractive to Lebron or another free agent. Definitely a risk but I think it has some fantastic potential long term.
11-09-2008
J_Mac_13 is offline J_Mac_13
Bosh already commented after this trade and the suggestion of Detroit pursuing him that he's quite comfortable in Toronto and its not about the money. As long as Toronto continues to win he won't be going anywhere. Being a huge raptors fan though i hope this is true and he doesnt screw us over like Vince Carter. Although i could never hate Bosh like Carter even if he did do this because CB4 is a stand up guy and always plays his heart out which is something i cant say about VC /end raptors rant
11-09-2008
still is offline still
def agree to a large extent jmac, although I doubt that he would ever reveal his true feelings/intentions. Locking up Calderon was great, especially at that rate but it's going to be hard for Toronto to be a legit contender when they wont be able to attract many free agents despite all of the cap space so maybe he gets antsy and wants to go elsewhere? I'd like to see him stay in Toronto fwiw and not be like VC.

I'm taking over Bobbo's blog :-X
11-09-2008
btimm is offline btimm
btimm's Avatar
Bosh can say it's not all about the money, but wouldn't coming to Detroit be more than money? Doubt it happens, but just sayin'.
11-09-2008
J_Mac_13 is offline J_Mac_13
no you're right that it would be more than the money, but from seeing him on a regular basis i get the impression that he's quite happy here and since he's still pretty young it would take more than the allure of a championship shot to get him to leave Toronto. On the other hand though he seems like a very decent person and probably wouldnt admit he was unhappy even if he was. And i'm obviously biased but with Colangelo as GM i think Toronto is going to have a championship worthy team in the next two years and i really doubt Bosh would want to leave that. If Jermaine O'Neal can start playing like he used to or Bargani turns into the player he has the potential to be Toronto will have a VERY good team in the next few years
11-09-2008
BobboFitos is offline BobboFitos
Still - dont sweat it, i like the comments i dont see why you say billups is slowing down (he's not) as: Iverson is a year older, Billups is a much better shooter (shooters age well) and Iverson depends on his quickness/athleticism (athletes do not). Billups was locked into a great contract - it wasn't overpaying, he's a top 5 PG and is the only top 5 PG who doesnt have a max deal.

btimm - They aren't signing any of those guys. They'll have the cap space, but it doesnt mean you can sign them - they want to want to sign. most of those guys are going to resign with their current clubs.

Jmac - I like Bosh alot, and I think there's a very strong chance (90%) he will resign.
11-10-2008
still is offline still
Well, I tend to view Iverson as a once in a lifetime talent that defies conventional thought with how he has aged to this point. I like Billups a lot and definitely think he will age well over time but he's not the penetrator that he once was and I think Iverson will add a unique component to the Detroit offense that will help RIP/Prince maximize their talent better since they are going to be getting a lot of open looks and their games aren't predicated on creating their own shot.

I think it'll be interesting to see if/how many free agents choose to sign with new teams. I can see Bosh resigning with Toronto but there is also a reason that all of these players chose shorter contracts to ensure that they would be able to play on a championship caliber team in addition to the obvious financial benefits from locking up another big $ deal. I think that you're seriously underestimating the likelihood that these players change places but I hope you're right since I don't feel its particularly good for the game or fans such as the one's in Toronto.
11-11-2008
BobboFitos is offline BobboFitos
We'll just have to lay the iverson issue to rest, but he's really not a superstar. he's def a good player, but he is incredibly overrated.

again, billups led to more open shots than iverson - billups is a better passer who keeps control of the ball. even conventional statistics back this up, so im not even sure what leg there is to stand on here.

due to the current system, teams are able to offer their guys more money, so it's a huge reason why players do in fact resign
11-11-2008
still is offline still
3 time scoring champ...league mvp...3rd highest scoring average of all time...6th all time in steals/game...not a superstar? he took a team to the finals that featured tyone hill, george lynch, matt geiger, eric snow, dikembe mutombo, todd macculloch, kevin ollie, raja bell, and aaron mckie! how many players are capable of doing that?

iverson also has a better career fg pct than billups (42.6 v 41.5) and actually has a higher assist per game average as well (6.3 vs 5.5).

i'm not sure what stats you are using to come to that conclusion, nor do i dispute their legitimacy, nor do i argue that iverson is possibly overrated in some respects and i also obviously acknowledge it took billups a while to find his game whereas iverson has been an elite player from the instant he entered the nba...but i think iverson's career body of work is incredible.

i agree about the current system/being able to offer more money but we've also seen a lot of teams make sign and trades (joe johnson, rashard lewis, eddy curry :-X, antoine walker to name a few and i'm sure i've missed some).

obviously to reiterate, not trying to be argumentative or vexatious nor trying to claim this is necessarily a good argument. i wouldnt even really say i'm an iverson fan as much as i really just respect what he's been able to accomplish. also, based a good bit of what i said abt iverson on the game i watched him against the nets in his debut w/ det where he created a ton of open looks for prince/rip...definitely entertaining to see how it turns out in the very least!
11-11-2008
BobboFitos is offline BobboFitos
still, the problem is you're stuck in conventional stats. they dont mean much. http://www.basketball-reference.com/...iversal01.html

i SERIOUSLY am going to bed soon, but i need to refute your comment =) it's no slight to iverson as well, i like him! he just gets way too much credit.

let's start from the top:
Quote:
3 time scoring champ...
actually, 4 time. 98-99 (26.8), 00-01 (31.1), 01-02 (31.4), and 05-06 (30.7).
fwiw, in 98-99 he led the league in shots; 00-01 was 2nd; 01-02 was 2nd; and 05-06 was 3rd. the years in between he led the league in FGA, too.
22 shots/game his 1st time leading this cat, 25.5 2nd, 27.8 3rd, 24.2 4th. Wow!

Quote:
league mvp...
he really didn't deserve it the year he won. Shaq was the clear MVP that year. don't even need to argue this one.

Quote:
3rd highest scoring average of all time...
again, bulk stat - he also plays more mpg than anyone (he's 1st active in this!) and also takes more shots than anyone. is it really no coincidence he scores alot?

Quote:
6th all time in steals/game..
steals really don't measure defensive acumen; that said, he has a very good STL%. career wise he's 17th overall, which is very good. But also not quite 6th all-time.
11-11-2008
BobboFitos is offline BobboFitos
Quote:
not a superstar? he took a team to the finals that featured tyone hill, george lynch, matt geiger, eric snow, dikembe mutombo, todd macculloch, kevin ollie, raja bell, and aaron mckie! how many players are capable of doing that?
The team they beat in the ECF were the Bucks. the bucks had ray allen, sam cassell, glenn robinson, and spare parts. The East was truly awful that year. Further, you're minimizing his supporting cast-it was an incredible group of defenders. Deke = DPOY, raja, mckie, and snow are all all-defensive guys (some of them multiple teams) and Tyrone Hill was actually a beast on the glass.

Quote:
iverson also has a better career fg pct than billups (42.6 v 41.5) and actually has a higher assist per game average as well (6.3 vs 5.5).
FG% isn't that important. TS% (measures 3s as well) is the more important efficiency number.
And well, Billups has a career mark of .573 (above average/very good mark) and 117 ORtg. Career, mind you - this includes his "weak" start to his career.
Iverson has a career .519 TS% (below average, which means if he's the bulk of your offense, it's likely to be inefficient) and a 105 ORtg.

About assists, again, this is a product of mins. Billups has an identical AST% (career 29.0 vs 29.3) and per 36mins Billups produces more assists. (6.2 per 36 vs 5.4 per 36) When you look at turnovers (Chauncey per 36 2.3, TOV% 13.4) vs (Iverson per 36 3.2, TOV% 12.1) Billups takes slightly better care of the ball.
11-11-2008
BobboFitos is offline BobboFitos
Quote:
i'm not sure what stats you are using to come to that conclusion, nor do i dispute their legitimacy, nor do i argue that iverson is possibly overrated in some respects and i also obviously acknowledge it took billups a while to find his game whereas iverson has been an elite player from the instant he entered the nba...but i think iverson's career body of work is incredible.
but Billups' body of work is actually even more incredible.

Quote:
i agree about the current system/being able to offer more money but we've also seen a lot of teams make sign and trades (joe johnson, rashard lewis, eddy curry :-X, antoine walker to name a few and i'm sure i've missed some).
JJ was bc the suns were cheap; Rashard got a max deal from the only people that would offer it (I mean does anyone blame the then-sonics for saying no?); curry is a lucky ****...

Quote:
obviously to reiterate, not trying to be argumentative or vexatious nor trying to claim this is necessarily a good argument. i wouldnt even really say i'm an iverson fan as much as i really just respect what he's been able to accomplish. also, based a good bit of what i said abt iverson on the game i watched him against the nets in his debut w/ det where he created a ton of open looks for prince/rip...definitely entertaining to see how it turns out in the very least!
I watched that game too. Devin Harris tore it up - I do agree it will be interesting. Further, I made someone a straight up 1500 bet on the Pistons vs Cavs final record, so I'm certainly hoping they're still decent! So I'm REALLY hoping Iverson is great. But time will tell.
11-11-2008
still is offline still
interesting points for sure, i'm going to just bullet some of my responses b/c i'm lacking the energy to form especially comprehensive rebuttals due to mono

a) i definitely agree that many of AI's stats are bulk stats. it is my view that iverson for the most part had to put up these numbers out of necessity rather than anything else because of how weak his supporting cast was in terms of offensive ability. the sixers that year were great on defense but had a dearth of offensive firepower. raja bell also only played around 6 minutes a game that year and was an insignificant role player at best. he only played 12 minutes a game the next year as well so this was a bit before he really hit his stride. tyronne hill was also playing with a broken ankle/badly sprained in the playoffs so he was quite limited. that bucks team is definitely light as far as perennial ECF teams go but thats a pretty potent big 3 at the time as all 3 were in the prime of their career.

b) in terms of deserving the mvp award...shaq had kobe. shaq certainly had one of his better years but iverson carried his team and i'm not sure there is any player that could replace iverson on that sixers team and lift that team to those heights. there aren't many people capable of lifting a team like that. look at how much kobe struggled w/ out shaq or before gasol was giftwrapped for him. most of the superstars in the nba wouldnt come close to leading their team to the finals with iverson's cast, regardless of how weak the conference was relative to other years.

c) i dont see how billups' body of work is more impressive/incredible in any respect but obviously this subject to opinion/interpretation

d) harris did most of his damage against stuckey and even fouled him out or put him in serious foul trouble. pretty impressive performance by harris. stuckey definitely has a ton of potential but is still quite young.
11-11-2008
still is offline still
e) last thing ill say about the statistical component is that im far better versed in the advanced stats of baseball rather than basketball which is a bit odd considering basketball is far and away the sport i've played the most and enjoy the most so i'll obviously defer to you on this. the one thing i will say is that efficiency measures or stats/36 minutes seem to penalize iverson for playing more and give credit to other players for statistics that they aren't necessarily capable of as it projects them to put up better #s than they would if they actually played as much time as iverson.

f) interesting bet. i think an intriguing x factor lies in what the cavs do with wally szczerbiak. his expiring contract will obviously garner a lot of attention and is an attractive asset and im curious as to whether they will keep wally or try to package his contract to bolster their roster. there was a rumor that the nets offered carter for wally in the offseason but the cavs declined it. how far vince has fallen...
11-11-2008
BobboFitos is offline BobboFitos
a. it's hard to argue this. i do agree the fact iverson DID put up his stats are impressive. but, you are quick to put down his teammates: That team was v good because of defense (5th in the league) not offense (13th). And the defense was good because of his teammates: Deke (and ratliff before he got hurt/traded) were simply outstanding that year. George Lynch was a stopper and played almost as many minutes as AI; McKie was another wing stopper that was at his defensive peak.
b. if the sixers had shaq and not iverson, not only would they have gone as far, they would've beaten the iverson/kobe lakers. for repetition, replace iverson with shaq, and the sixers become much better.
c. 1 ring vs 0 rings. !
d. then why didnt iverson guard harris when stuckey kept getting burnt? oh, because iverson is worse on d than stuckey.
e. now you're suddenly saying if iverson played less per game he'd put up better stats (efficiency). this is not true, but the per 36 help normalize his bulk stats (that are helped because he plays ~5+ mins more than true superstars)
f. yeah, cavs could be good, i still think i got the best of it.
11-12-2008
still is offline still
I guess Eddie House is better than AI too since he has a ring! ;-)