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BobboFitos

Oct
30
2008
October 30th, back from CA (flight) quick thoughts
Posted in Poker | View Comments (9)
 

So, my flight was pretty brutal. I generally take the red eye back from CA to MA, and essentially it's so that you can sleep on your flight and wake up "ready for the day" (adjusted to the time difference). Except, for me, I can never sleep by 10 (when the plane took off) and I also can't sleep on planes (in general) so it's just a normal plane ride, except dark and everyone else is sleeping. I also got a middle w/ no extra room, and flew United (horrible airline), was seated between 2 people taking up a fair amount of space, and my chair was slightly broken since I couldn't recline it that far. End the "waa waa" section. On the plane I started to read "the Black Swan" and frankly it just wasn't that good. Got a decent amount into it, but I'm not sure if I'm going to finish it. Anyway...

When I left for CA, I was told by the parking staff in Logan (Central Parking) to park in a handicapped spot. I had my reservations, and voiced them - three times. ("I don't mind walking further"/"I don't feel comfortable parking here"/etc.) and I shouldn't just ignored them and listened to myself. Obviously upon arrival I got a 200$ ticket. And it cost that much to park there for a week. (Blech! Feels like I was bled!) Oh well.

CA was fantastic. I had a great time. It was not the right timing, since I'm trying to get group coaching off the ground, move into a new place, make new videos, get adjusted to the NBA season, etc. But I did it anyway and it was worth it. A note: I saw "forgetting sarah marshall" 2 days ago, and it was an awful movie. Not funny. I loved superbad, and it just seemed like forgetting sarah marshall needed 30 mins editing (just chop off 30 mins) and better acting from the main lead. Also, it just wasn't a good plotline, so that limited its potential. It wasn't as bad as "rachael getting married," but it was close.

BUT! yesterday, I saw "religulous", and I thought it was fantastic. Absolutely marvelous. I find Bill Maher to be VERY funny, but the documentary was well put together as well. The fact that I agree with alot of what he has to say is obviously a primary reason that I enjoyed the movie, but it def gets a strong nod of approval.

So, moving to NBA stuff, things are going well. We've plunked down 6 bets on over/under, and we're 6for6 on the line moving our direction. (Which means we've consistently beaten the markets) Results wise I'm only ahead a small amount of money (relative to poker ) so I'll save that stuff until I reach milestones/my goal. But, I'm very excited. (And, I'm thrilled for NBA regular season action! I love the NBA!) Since I jotted down in the last blog my win futures, I decided I was going to jot down my random sporting event prop bets that (hopefully!) you guys can sweat with me: *I think all are good bets for me, obv, as I'm not one to make a -EV bet, but would appreciate feedback on these.

With "rakes.a.beach":
He has lakers over 64.5, he's laying 200 to win 100
He has spurs +3.72 (meaning +3.5 ) over jazz 50 to win 50. (This is wins in the season)

With "morello": (*for the record, I HIGHLY respect morello's basketball opinion. He's a goddamn short stacker, but he knows a ton about bball)
He has 1k on the Pacers final standing in the East. If they miss the playoffs, I lose. If they make it, I win.

With "Victor":
If LeBron resigns with the Cavs, I have to change my avatar to whatever he wants. If he resigns elsewhere, he needs to change his avatar to whatever I want.

With "Kbfc": (My bball business partner!)
Straight up 500 on Biedrins (me) TS% vs Bynum. Min. 1k mins.

With "ZJ123":
200 on Wiz O/U. 38.5 is the line, I have the under.

With "POKEROMGLOL":
500 on the Mavs O/U. 50 is the line, I have the under.

~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1qb1...eature=related

My Favorite 10 Songs:
-King Without a Crown (Matisyahu)
-Mrs. Potter's Lullaby (Counting Crows)
-#41 (Dave Matthew's Band)

No story here, really. I really like DMB. Alot. Actually, I have more DMB CDs than any other band. I normally do not like live music much, but I LOVE DMB's live stuff. And studio sound. (1 other band, that you will see later on the top 10, is VERY close in CD count though, so don't despair!) Anyway, had to get some acoustic mixing in there, and DMB wins that spot. Hopefully others can agree what a great song that is. Crush is a close 2nd, though, and NEARLY made the list.

So, I went to check out my new apartment today. I got keys, but the place isn't *quite* ready. I move in Nov 1st (2 days) and they need to fix a closet and clean the place up. Also, I realized I am the only non-Irish person in the building. I'm actually pretty excited about this: The owner of the building is named Martin, and from Ireland; the guy I met who I believe is the manager is named Cerill, and has a very thick Irish accent. I met one of my neighbors, and elderly lady who had a very Irish sounding name.

Why is this exciting? Well, when I was younger, (10 I think) I went through a phase where I wanted to be Irish. I wanted people to call me Robert Ford (an invented last name), simply because I thought that was really cool. My Uncle Robert (who reads this blog from time to time, so perhaps he'd like to comment on this) actually sent me a tape of Irish songs. (After listening to it, though, I decided I didn't really like Irish folk songs that much) Here are some pictures: (Keep in mind these were taken in a rush with my blackberry, I will have better later)

My brand new kitchen:


My bathroom (wow my photography is bad here)


My entry way...


NOTE: If you've PMed me, and I have NOT gotten to you, PLEASE leave a comment. I got a TON of messages, and I THINK I spoke to everyone, but it's possible I missed out. I'm NOT ignoring you, it's a legit mishap on my end.

Finally wanted to throw a poker example in here! I've been talking about a million different things the past month or two. With hardly any poker! I get the sense some of you would rather read poker stuff. So, here it is, a tidbit I was thinking about today on AIM w/ a friend/student.

Student/Friend: What about this situation: You have 99 and call a cutoff raise from the button and the flop is 88 2 turn is an ace and he bets and we call, is it an automatic call down on the river
“- i feel like in a spot liek that i generally call down a lot”
“- cus people are second barreling the turn with a ton of there range, but will they shut down if you call the turn, probably not since you never hanve an ace”

Well, basically…
- i am surprised you dont c/r the flop
-SH people are so paranoid, you get floated, you get value called by 77 + under, and you get people making macho moves with like QT
[I normally c/r wider for value on type 1]

if you c/r and get called, and the turn is a ace: you can check fold (since they're going to PC worse, and the hands that "float" are ace high now beat you - it becomes RE situation where it's reasonable to assume they have the best hand. even though they MAY have like KQ every now and again (they dont nec. bet that)]

Student/Friend: obviously you could do that with jack ten or something 2

-you could… i wouldnt
-in fact, I would have an unbalanced range preying off people’s paranoia

Student/Friend: so, would u do something like raise 99 on that flop with no history?

-the history there is they raised in LP/it further serves to "protect" the pot, people play on with 77-33, but fold JT/QJ... JT etc is much stronger vs our PARTICULAR hand


SO, if we had A8 -
-i would prefer slowplaying it
-in fact, thats the case where id reverse the roles of hands

What does this mean?
- normally you c/c and pot control moderate hands
-and c/r and bloat the pot with big hands
- on dry boards, you typically want to do the reverse
- the reason is that sure, you "merge" your range, but 99 is v similar in value anyway vs lesser made hands (they have 2 outs basically, so they're way behind) but vs air (that you allow to play on by c.c) is quite live
-you encourage barrels on those boards
-882, everyone is quick to pin you on 55, so "every card" they feel is a scarecard plus they go nuts for value

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Comments
10-30-2008
BobboFitos is offline BobboFitos
Note that when I said c/r, it means raising the cbet lead too, the first example was playing OOP here. So, disregard the semantics.
10-30-2008
Kovner is offline Kovner
Hey,
I PMed you yesterday about buying your book and joining the coaching group and haven't heard back.
Posting in comments because you said to.
10-30-2008
TheConArtist is offline TheConArtist
It was confusing reading your thoughts on the situation since we were actually in position. However I gather that C/C means flat a lead or check behind instead? And C/R means raise a lead or bet if checked to? More of this on your blog please!

Thanks Bobbo.
10-30-2008
SaiYeN is offline SaiYeN
please respond back to my 2nd PM about buying your book
10-31-2008
spect is offline spect
I PMed you about group coaching a while ago but no response yet
11-01-2008
BobboFitos is offline BobboFitos
spec, i havent pmed anyone about group coaching yet, i saved your response, if you posted in the thread, consider your spot locked up
11-01-2008
playforfoodz is online now playforfoodz
to reiterate, say you c/r 99 on 882r (OOP in this case, since when we are IP it gets so much easier for our villains to dump most of their ranges because of reverse implied odds), he tanks for like 5 secs and calls (assuming you're playing against a mid-stakes reg, nothing fancy, multitabler), turn is some card other than A or K (say J/T or 5/7 - i assume we'd bet regardless) now we bet again trying to sell a big hand, but the thing is, our range for c/r flop and betting turn for value is usually going to be so narrow (hence your inclination to have a wider c/ring value range on type 1 boards), that it becomes okay (some math required, though), to push over your bet on the turn. is it not? because oftentimes we might decide to go for a double c/r in this spot, figuring that either he's going to treat our flop c/r as a bluff and try to push us out of the hand with whatever air he floated with and hasn't improved on the turn, or if he actually picked up some pair (i doubt he calls a c/r on the flop with TT+ like ever, given how many garbage hands we could be raising) and now has more showdown value, he'll check behind hoping for a free showdown. So all things considered, our range for betting on the turn is probably much wider than the range we are checking the turn with (to c/r again)

if he 3bets your raise on the flop (i believe the size of that 3bet is also important, though, let's say its small, because std tags aren't usually going to bother and will 3bet big with hands they are going to stack off with), are you stacking off with 99?

feel free to critique every sentence of this post
11-01-2008
BobboFitos is offline BobboFitos
these are the sorts of posts i want in the private forum (i keep hearing "its coming soon") but -
1. you're not trying to sell a big hand. you want people to think you have nothing. that said, you do have a big-ish hand here.
2. i dont know what you're saying, it becomes ok for villain to push the turn. sure, depends on what they have we are planning on stacking off with 99 on most turns though, and outside of knowing your opponent very well and/or odd plays that allow you to fold (if you c/r 3bb to 10bb on the flop, bet 20bb on the turn, so river pot is ~70bb with about that behind, i suppose vs some you could check fold the river. (you check they shove, theyd have to have had double floated you or turned AX/44 into a bluff - these scenarios are unlikely)
3. i would NOT double c/r here with 99, id rather double c/r a complete bluff. i see people betting air/better (more polarized) with a fair amount of air, which makes me rather c/r-> c/c turn then c-r x2. But c-r->lead is better.
4. why do you doubt they call the flop with say QQ? i think a 3bet on the flop by a villain tends to be a weaker hand, and certainly when they bet the flop and call a c/r we COULD be behind. (we are a decent %, but not often enough to make our play bad value-wise)
5. yes, if they 3bet your c/r, you stick it in. sometimes you get "outleveled" (hardly a leveling match) and they did it with a real hand (like 87) but its the best option (beats folding and calling by a wide margin)
11-01-2008
playforfoodz is online now playforfoodz
i guess my post is quite messy - haven't slept for like 40 hours, but my point is not about going for double c/r with 99, but with a big hand, such as A8 (and, on the other hand, we bet our bluffs/moderately strong hands), it's just like you said "you're not trying to sell a big hand. you want people to think you have nothing", well if you bet the turn, i'm very inclined to believe your range is weighted far more towards bluffs than huge hands on this board (because it's incredibly hard for you to have the nuts, and it'd be far better to slowplay trips or fh on this board type, so you're betting to take it down against some floats or underpairs, therefore bluffshoving isn't unthinkable - i've done this in the past and had some success, although it hinges on how paranoid the villain is), plus as you said they could call our c/r on the flop with TT-JJ, so it makes stacking off a somewhat worse option. and the reason i asked about getting 3bet smallish - i got owned in this spot numerous times