Leggo Poker Every Tool You Need To Win

boywonder

Dec
28
2009
How long until you notice?
Posted in Poker | View Comments (39)
 

Hi guys,

Let's say you and I are both 1000 No Limit regulars, playing on the same site, same limits, for five years. We are both multitabling grinders, playing an avergae amount of tables, let's say 6. And we both play between 35 and 50 k hands each month. We both have average stats, and we play an average amount of pots against each other. We notice each other about as much as we notice the other regs, neither more nor less. You pay as much attention to me as to everyone else, and you are about as observant and mindful of the game in general as most regs are today, as you and I both are, which is sometimes very and sometimes not at all. I guess we run into one another once every couple of days, like we do with all the other regs playing our limits and our volume. There is, let's say, 50 or 60 of us altogether. Maybe a little more.

As I said, let us say that you open an average amount of hands from late position, letīs say a button and cutoff average of close to 40. I 3 bet you with the hands I should be 3-betting you, and mostly fold. Becuase youīre a reg I kinda stay out of your way, but 3-bet some suited connectors from time to time to keep you honest along with, of course, most of my pairs.

However, I always, and I mean always, just call w AJ, suited or unsuited. Never mind the hand, substitute it with KQ if you want. I always do this, 100 % of the time, completely unbalanced and exploitable. Let's say that unless you know I am doing this, I have the ranges down perfectly and I'm actually profiting by coldcalling your steal out of position. I play this particular hand very well postflop, becasue I play it so often in this position and am comfortable with my relative hand value versus your range in mostly any spot.

How long do you think, honestly, it will take for you to pick up on this? How long until you notice me? I am very curious as to what you guys think about this.

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12-28-2009
Probability is offline Probability
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I honestly think it would take over 60K hands for me to notice.
12-28-2009
boywonder is offline boywonder
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I honestly think it would take over 60K hands for me to notice.

Ok. Does that mean 60 k hands against me specifically then? Thatīs what I am presuming.
12-28-2009
the fox is bak jak is offline the fox is bak jak
it all depends on how many tables ur playing..
12-28-2009
beatis is offline beatis
most (including me) would never notice.
12-28-2009
boywonder is offline boywonder
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it all depends on how many tables ur playing..

You are right, I added that. What is the average? A lot of guys play about 6 tables, so let's just use that. What do you think?
12-28-2009
tedjam is offline tedjam
Updated 12-28-2009 at 10:56 PM by tedjam
i would like to think 30k hands or a month.I like to keep detailed notes of how someone reacts in blinds. Because late position is so profitable, whenever im being 3 bet from the blinds i want as much info as possible on villans range and tendedancy as i dont want my winrate to fall from obv my fav positions co and button
12-28-2009
peten2toms is offline peten2toms
I think it would take a certain number of showdowns rather than hands. Personally I like to note regs flatting ranges OTB therefore I would like to believe I would notice within 5 showdowns or less.
12-28-2009
boywonder is offline boywonder
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I think it would take a certain number of showdowns rather than hands. Personally I like to note regs flatting ranges OTB therefore I would like to believe I would notice within 5 showdowns or less.

You are the one raising from co / button, I am playing oop, from the blinds.
12-28-2009
K_Man is offline K_Man
Updated 12-28-2009 at 11:08 PM by K_Man
I think that while (for the sake of discussion) it is possible to use the term 'average' to describe many facets of our opponents game, the area of note taking/ paying specific attention to ranges on all streets varies an incredible amount from player to player.

Most average grinders would have a standard play in this spot, so after seeing them flat maybe twice (against yourself and another similar opponent to yourself) you could probably make a fairly accurate assumption that they are doing it close to 100% of the time against you.

But that doesn't mean all regs actively take a note and use the information successfully in future hands. Some would do it very well, others very poorly, even if they both have somewhat comparable winrates.

Btw I think rather than make a big underlined point of "Always flats AJs/o bb to btn" when realising it initially, you can assume they are doing it effectively 100% until proven otherwise. When you are proven wrong, you should then make that big underline note of "Uses a mixed pre flop strategy with AJs/o bb to btn".
12-28-2009
Probability is offline Probability
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Quote:
Ok. Does that mean 60 k hands against me specifically then? Thatīs what I am presuming.
60k at tables with you.
12-28-2009
boywonder is offline boywonder
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I think that while (for the sake of discussion) it is possible to use the term 'average' to describe many facets of our opponents game, the area of note taking/ paying specific attention to ranges on all streets varies an incredible amount from player to player.

Most average grinders would have a standard play in this spot, so after seeing them flat maybe twice (against yourself and another similar opponent to yourself) you could probably make a fairly accurate assumption that they are doing it close to 100% of the time against you.

But that doesn't mean all regs actively take a note and use the information successfully in future hands. Some would do it very well, others very poorly, even if they both have somewhat comparable winrates.


Ok, great. We can reverse this. So if you were the player always flatting with AJ, assuming you're opponent is what you right now in your own mind consider the average midstakes regular with average notetaking, on average how long do you think until he notices that this is the only hand you flat with out of position?
12-28-2009
verneer is offline verneer
Just to be clear: The only hand you flat call out of the blinds vs. anyone is AJo? All other hands you either 3-bet or fold? Or is this the only hand you flat call out of the blinds vs. me specifically?
12-28-2009
K_Man is offline K_Man
Quote:
Ok, great. We an reverse this. So if you were the player always flatting with AJ, assuming you're opponent is what you right now in your own mind consider the average midstakes regular, how long do you think until he notices that this is the only hand you flat with out of position?
Ah well now the example is becoming more interesting (and also highly unlikely of course). I think if specifically AJs was the only single hand you flat oop to a btn it would be so noticeable when you finally flat that even poorer note takers would have to realise the importance of such a note.

I think he should probably make a note initially like "Almost exclusively 3 bets or folds from the blinds to my btn opens, except for a very narrow range of hands that include AJs". After taking such a note he should be inclined to notice whenever you flat and continue to underline the AJs every time he keeps seeing it.

To answer you specific question of how long before he was completely sure, probably a very very long time because having a one hand flatting range from a successful 5/10NL player is a fairly absurd notion. It would be a weird levelling game where although you've made 11 underlines besides AJs in your notes, you still can't fathom how he could be so inbalanced and still win money. When you finally did concede that's all he flats with, it would of course be akin to a rounders Oreo moment and you could play perfectly forever in that spot.
12-28-2009
boywonder is offline boywonder
Updated 12-28-2009 at 11:24 PM by boywonder
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Just to be clear: The only hand you flat call out of the blinds vs. anyone is AJo? All other hands you either 3-bet or fold? Or is this the only hand you flat call out of the blinds vs. me specifically?

No. I 3 bet a normal range. For simplicity's sake let's take button vs sb. You raise 40 % of hands, I 3 bet about the 10 % which is quite standard, and flat you with AJ.Let's say that I pretty much do the same thing against others, in general, but against you it is always, always a flat. Let's say a little less than half the hands go to showdown, which could also be quite standard.

And remember, you are 6 tabling, and I am one of the 50 or 60 regs you battle with every day.
12-28-2009
K_Man is offline K_Man
Quote:
No. I 3 bet a normal range. For simplicity's sake let's take button vs sb. You raise 40 % of hands, I 3 bet about the 10 % which is quite standard, and flat you with AJ.Let's say that I pretty much do the same thing against others, in general, but against you it is always, always a flat.
That's ok, I like making rambling off topic posts due to a confusion of sentence structure.
12-28-2009
verneer is offline verneer
I would think three showdowns would do it for me to pick up on this. Not sure how many hands it would take for this situation to go to showdown three times though.
12-28-2009
Rajmaster is offline Rajmaster
about 1 hour since i always note when regs are clever enough to call KQ and AJ oop(because most arent)
12-28-2009
K_Man is offline K_Man
Quote:
And remember, you are 6 tabling, and I am one of the 50 or 60 regs you battle with every day.
Given that you have just placed "us" in the role of an average 5/10 player, and our opponent has an identical description, our answers to 'how long it takes us to realise' and 'how long it takes him to realise' should also be identical.
12-28-2009
hobiejuan1 is offline hobiejuan1
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60k hands or 3 showdowns? Somebody is pretty far off
12-28-2009
K_Man is offline K_Man
Quote:
60k hands or 3 showdowns? Somebody is pretty far off
Matt still thinks OJ might not have done it. He just thinks someone is innocent of only taking one pre flop line with AJ until absolutely proven guilty.
12-28-2009
steel108 is offline steel108
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Maybe I'm being optomistic, but it probably wouldn't take very long. Reviewing hands after the session, I would notice that you are flatting AJ OOP instead of 3B. I can't say "he always calls with AJ" but I would make an assumption that you are 3B a polarized range OOP and adjust from there.

So depending on whether you show your hand down, I would adjust after the first session and start 4B bluffing a wide range since AJ and KQ just can't get it in very good shape.
12-29-2009
the fox is bak jak is offline the fox is bak jak
depends how often it goes to showdown..
12-29-2009
IcarusJam is offline IcarusJam
doesn't this mostly weigh on outside of session study due to the fact that we can analyze his game against other regulars as well, as well as his showdown frequency in order to determine this? It could only take one session if the session was analyzed very very closely
12-29-2009
klink- is offline klink-
explain how not 3betting aj makes any of your ranges unbalanced and/or exploitable?
12-29-2009
Probability is offline Probability
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if you only flat AJ (I think thats what the post says) then it's pretty exploitable considering your whole flatting range is AJ.
12-29-2009
klink- is offline klink-
Updated 12-29-2009 at 01:32 AM by klink-
uh you have other hands in your range, and im like 99% sure thats not what hes saying.

anyways, i don't know what you mean by "notice". The first time you see him show down aj in a single raised pot means he is capable of flatting there with aj, not that he is doing it close to 100% of the time. Obviously if the player is any good, he will be making adjustments vs. your play and therefore his frequencies change a lot (i.e. if there is a series of hands where you 3bet him like 2-3 hands in a row, the 4th time might be a good spot to 3bet/5bet aj, or if you see he is defending stuff like j8s). Either way, i think that this isn't really related to total number of hands.
12-29-2009
LT22 is offline LT22
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I think he's flatting other hands besides AJ. It's just that his % with AJ is 100% call, 0% 3bet 0% fold
12-29-2009
Probability is offline Probability
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Quote:
However, I always, and I mean always, just call w AJ, suited or unsuited. Never mind the hand, substitute it with KQ if you want. I always do this, 100 % of the time, completely unbalanced and exploitable.
i think he means only flatting with AJ. i spoke with ben on skype for a sec and that's what we discussed anyway.

i could be completely off on this though. better wait for ben.
12-29-2009
fabioff is offline fabioff
hm i'd say it would take the average grinder a shitload of hands, it would take brian townsend one session because he reviews every single hand afterwards (at least he says) and it would take me one to five sessions i assume, depending on my daily performance, focus, and your annoyance. if you annoy me during the session i will take a look at your game and well, then it will only take me one session or i will notice during the session.
12-29-2009
Lengthy is offline Lengthy
I'm sure what he is saying that a person always has a static range for each of their actions when you open from the button. So the player is always cold calling KQs KQo AJs AJo and always three betting AQo+ TT+. How long until we notice this?

I would say since people don't pay nearly as much attention as they think they do, then 15-20k hands played at the same table and a 1k of them played against one another.
 
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