11-10-2011

Have you found an answer? I'd like to know as well.

11-10-2011

I dunno, I've gotten a couple mixed responses but I ended up taking the +1 +104

11-10-2011

+109 on the moneyline would have been best, but +1 +104 is better (due to the infrequency of games in the NFL landing on 1 or 2. GL

11-10-2011

Yes, that was my thought as well sweetbread. Where as if it was +3 vs +2 I would have to take the +3 right?

11-11-2011

if it was +2 at +109 and +3 at -105 yea take +3, what sweetbread said

11-14-2011

the 0, 1, 2 numbers in football scoring are pretty irrelevant. There is a huge difference between +2 and +3 but a negligible difference between 1-2. In general ML bets are going to have higher ev than +1/+2 type bets but it all depends on the actual odds difference.

statistically there are ways if figuring out lines like that (i.e. if a team is +125, what should the team be at +2, +3 etc) but thats some tough math/stats.

11-14-2011

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1 its a bit outdated but this thread sort of explains how cover %s vary based on changes on the spread, and decent amount of good math explaining how footballs unorthodox scoring system works in betting.