What's up guys. I've decided to review some of my hands from Sunday in my blog. I would definetly not consider myself a tournament expert, just a cash game player that takes shots at tournaments on occasion. Personally I don't find the prospect of grinding tournaments appealing, but sometimes it's good to break routine and play some tournaments. Playing high-mid stakes/high stakes cash games can be mentally draining at times, tournaments in comparison are almost relaxing, but they consume a lot of time.

I put 1450$ in touraments on Sunday. I played the 750k on FTP for 216$, the 215$ WCOOP-21, the 530$ WCOOP-22, 80$ Sunday Challenge on Pacific, 163$ 150k on FTP. I ended up winning 1688$ for a profit of 238$. Most of that profit came from my deep run in the Brawl, where I was chip leader with about 65 people left to go, but ended up busting in 32nd position.

This first hand is from the Brawl:

As I mentioned above I was chip leader with about 65 people left to go. However I lost about 50% of my stack trying to resteal from big stacks that were opening wide in late position and calling short stack allins. For some reason the CO doesn't show up here. The CO had 50k in chips.
I had about 15 big blinds and an M of 6 and felt like this would be a profitable stealing spot from a chipev standpoint. I think tournamentev considerations are not all too relevant here as the money bubble steps weren't that large at this point and generally my tournamentev will be larger if I have more chips than less.
The question though is how +ev this shove actually is. I think the easiest way to analyze this is to find some ev calculation software and input the variables then run it, because it's a potentially multiway situation it won't be straightforward to calculate using pen and paper. You could also use excel to figure out the numbers. I generally find excel an intriguing piece of software, because it isn't too difficult to learn and it can be applied to various different situations.
However if you were to do this with pen and paper you could get a rough estimations by assuming people's calling ranges and your equity against it excluding the possibility that multiple people call. This obviously won't be very accurate, but it will give you a rough estimation of the ev of the play.
Let me just go over my estimates of ranges for the various players and then tell you what kind of ev I come up with after running simulations.
So the CO only has 6,25bb, this isn't a large stack so one would think he would be compelled to call with a lot of his range. However I believe it is typically correct to assume that there is reasonable chance villain is a poor player waiting for a hand and has thus let himself blind down to his stack size. Naturally he can also be a good player that has just lost the large majority of his stack in a pot. I estimate his calling range at the following: 44+,A7s+,KQs,A9o+,KQo.
I'll assume the BTN, SB and BB will all reshove with: 66+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ and in the case of a reshove they will call with JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ vs a big stack and 88+,AJs+,AQo+ vs the short stack. I will also assume that if there are two calls the third player will only enter the pot with KK+. These are just my rough estimates and not exact ranges, but I think they'll enable me to get some reasonable estimates.
Ok that was very tedious, even though I was using software to aide my calculations. If anybody knows of a better way to do the calculation please let me know.

So apparently based on my estimations of ranges my play will yield me a long term ev of about +3bbs. That is a pretty reasonable ev to have and it would make my play very profitable. From my experience however this ev seems too high. People's calling range will probably wider, especially when the BB is facing the decision whether to call or not when everybody infront of him has folded.
Multiway calling ranges may also be wider. However there is a decent chance my play is +ev nontheless. If I tweak the BB's calling range to include 44,55, KQo and ATo our ev drops to slightly below 3bbs, but is still high.
I think I'm gonna take a break for now and look at the ranges again later. The good thing now is that I can use my calculations as a template for similar spots that may arise in the future.
I'll try and post some of the other spots that came up in my next blog.