Some of you may already know of this incidence, but I just read it for the first time and thought it might be of interest to others:
The “fat-fingered” Mizuho trader
A Mizuho Securities trader sold 610,000 shares in job recruiting company J-Com Co. for 1 yen apiece, instead of an intended sale of 1 share at 610,000 yen. Mizuho said it was unable to cancel the order, causing it to lose about $340 million. The mistake was attributed to the “fat-finger” syndrome, shorthand for gaffes made when traders hit the wrong button on a keyboard and lose a bundle.
The Tokyo stock exchange later acknowledged that a glitch in its system made it impossible to cancel the trade. Mizuho and the exchange have discussed sharing some of the losses, but have so far failed to reach an agreement.
Hand 1:
This situation arose when Sandra Naujoks “missclicked” to 5k instead of 500 utg, 8 handed at blinds of 100/200 with an effective stack size of around 12k. A middle aged guy next to act after Sandra flatted her raise. This guy had just been moved to our table and was covering everyone at the table, he had roughly 50k. My impression of him was that he was likely a soft spot in the field. It was then folded around to me in the big blind. I had 30k and looked down at AQo. If the big stack hadn’t flated it would have been an easy shove in my opinon given Sandra’s missclick, but now stack dynamics made the situation slightly awkward.
At this point with the little information I had on the big stack I was trying to figure out his range for flatting here. I think it’s fair to say that he can flat strong here for sure, though I would expect him to raise his strong hands more often than not. I also expect him to be more likely to flat KK-AA than when he has QQ and AK due to playability reasons. I’d say he is also capable of flatting hands like KQ, AJ, 77-88 occasionally. The majority of the time when he flats, I would expect him to show up with 99-JJ, AQ.
So let me think about the rough mathematics of the situation. At this point there are 10,300 chips in the pot. If I jam then I am risking 30,000 to win that. I will assume that the big stack will call with QQ+, AK. Against this range our equity with AQo is 24%:
Hand 0: 24.420% 23.05% 01.37% 113673216 6751686.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 75.580% 74.21% 01.37% 365966964 6751686.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Sandra will be likely to call well against my shove here as she is comfortable with the tourney buy-in and realizes that a small stack will not be worth much at this stage in the tournament. However the player left to act behind might affect her decision. Nonetheless she will be getting 3.5-1 immediate odds to my shove. I’m not entirely sure on her range for calling to be honest, but I think she will be atleast calling with 88+, AQ here.
Against that range of hands I have 40% equity:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.878% 30.85% 09.63% 34861061 10888158.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 60.122% 51.40% 09.63% 58086991 10888158.00 { 88+, AQs, AQo }
I think if Sandra calls the bigstacks range will remain unaffected more or less. Against the combined range I have an equity of 17%:
Hand 0: 16.767% 14.81% 01.96% 2139301071 283659049.83 { AQo }
Hand 1: 33.308% 31.46% 01.85% 4545162393 267969978.33 { 88+, AQs, AQo }
Hand 2: 49.925% 49.13% 00.80% 7099440611 114955564.83 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
So let me try and formulate some sort of rough equation for this problem:
First I will estimate how many hands I think Sandra is raising here in general. I don’t really know much about her game, but I know she is a lead instructor of some coaching site, so I’ll assume her approach to the game will be tight by default. I’d say a somewhat “normal-tight” range for raising here first to act would be : 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo+,KQo, this consitutes 15.6% of hands. 88+, AQ make up 5.6% of hands. Ergo I estimate she folds 1-5.6/15.6=64% of the time.
The overcaller is slightly trickier to analyze, because I have more uncertainty when it comes to his range. KQ, AJ, 77-88 make up for 4.5% of hands. If I assume he has this range 25% of the time when he calls, it means on average this range is representative to 4.5*0.25=1.125% of hands or 1.125% of the total combinations of preflop hands possible in Holdem. I’ll assume he can have 99-JJ, AQ everytime he flats (simplified) which represent 2.6% of hands. And QQ-AA, AK 25% of the time, for a total of 2.6*0.25=0.65%. So based off of my assumptions villain will be calling 0.65/(0.65+2.6+1.125)=14.9% of the time.
At this point I would like to point out that we are assuming that the big stack will make mathematically incorrect folds if we shove AQ here, because we think he is a below average player. I think it is reasonable to assume that a weak player may look at how much we put in the pot and just fold JJ, despite getting very good odds. In the defence of my opponent, I think hardly anybody in this field would expect me to jam AQ or worse here, because they all value tourney life so highly. Coming from a cash game background I sometimes have to remind myself that +ev plays are not allways that good if they are high variance in a tournament with players against whom you don’t play with on a regular basis.
We now have enough information to estimate the ev of shoving here:
Both players fold:
0.64*0.85=54.4%
Sandra calls, big stack folds:
0.36*0.85=30.6%
Sandra calls, big stack calls:
0.36*0.149=5.4%
Sandra folds, big stack calls:
0.64*0.149=9.536%
Number check: 54.4+30.6+5.4+9.536=99,9% (error is due to rounding off of numbers)
0,544*10300+0,456*(0,31*(0,4*(10300+7000)+0,69*(-11800))+0,054*(0,17*(10300+7000+25000)+0,83*(-29800))+0,095*(0,24*(10300+25000)+0,905*(-29800)))=-3083
Note there is a small error in the equation, because sometimes I will beat the bigstack, but lose to Sandra and vice versa. I have neglected this to simplify the calculation. However this should not make up for the negitive ev, as the entire play yields an ev of minus 15 big blinds and this specific scenario only occurs 5.4% of the time. I also feel as though I set the paramaters as such that they would be favourable to shoving in general.
For what it’s worth, it was interesting to see some numbers on this scenario. I’ve also learnt that I should restrain myself from doing these calculations per hand, as they are too tedious. I can probably do this in half the time with the right tools. “Per hand” calculations are fine with only one opponent involved, but as soon as things start to get multiway it get’s complicated.
I’m still in Valencia right now. Busted the tournament at the end of day one. It was a questionable bustout, as I had a reasonable stack, but I went with a read and happened to be wrong. I expect my play to be +ev on average in the long run as I usually trust my reads, but it’s one of those high variance/slightly +ev spots I mentioned above. Got to play with Dal, a Dutch player who won the Sunday Million. He was very loose in the early stages, but was able to make some pretty good valuebets with pretty weak preflop holdings so it probably worked out for him. He tightened up a lot when the table got deeper and the stacks shallower.
Had a video of my room in Valencia, but I’m unable to upload it right now as the internet is messing about. Will hopefully be able to upload It later. It’s really annoying when you’re in a hotel and the internet isn’t working due to internal problems. The internet isn’t working in the whole hotel, so imagine the opportunity costs to a hotel full of internet poker players :S. Anyhow, all the best for now.
Daniell
edit:
The internet is back up again so I was able to upload the tour of my room:
Busted 24/126 slightly out of the money. I still need to learn how to run well in these things. Anyhow the plan is to enjoy the wellness Baden has to offer and maybe play some online cash later tonight. Tomorrow I am off to Valencia to the play the Unibet Open there. Will try and write up some hands on the way.
Day 1 is now over. There are 33 players left out of approximately 120 entrants. I have 78.5k in chips. Blinds starting tomorrow will be 1000/2000/300. I was down to 9bb at one point in the tournament after I had lost a series of pots, but was able to rebound through aggressive play and some poor play on behalf of my opponents. Tables tomorrow will be redrawn. I'll try and go into some detail on hands after the event is over, because there were some interesting situations that came up, but I am way too tired to recall them now.
I got to play with Sandra Naujoks today. Apparently she won EPT Dortmund last year and did pretty well in some events the year before. Check her up in Google.
On a side note there's been some pretty crazy side game action here at Baden. 50/100 PLO has been running and David Benjamine aswell as Nicki Jedlika have been playing in it.
Gonna go and try to get some rest now. Hopefully my next update will be in the money.
This is currently my favourite sports car, it's a total beast and I dare say it's deceptively beasty:
670hp (293 kW)
It's only around 300k Euros ^^. Here is an official link to the website: http://www.mercedes-amg.com/webspecial/sl65blackseries/
What's up guys. I've decided to review some of my hands from Sunday in my blog. I would definetly not consider myself a tournament expert, just a cash game player that takes shots at tournaments on occasion. Personally I don't find the prospect of grinding tournaments appealing, but sometimes it's good to break routine and play some tournaments. Playing high-mid stakes/high stakes cash games can be mentally draining at times, tournaments in comparison are almost relaxing, but they consume a lot of time.
I put 1450$ in touraments on Sunday. I played the 750k on FTP for 216$, the 215$ WCOOP-21, the 530$ WCOOP-22, 80$ Sunday Challenge on Pacific, 163$ 150k on FTP. I ended up winning 1688$ for a profit of 238$. Most of that profit came from my deep run in the Brawl, where I was chip leader with about 65 people left to go, but ended up busting in 32nd position.
As I mentioned above I was chip leader with about 65 people left to go. However I lost about 50% of my stack trying to resteal from big stacks that were opening wide in late position and calling short stack allins. For some reason the CO doesn't show up here. The CO had 50k in chips.
I had about 15 big blinds and an M of 6 and felt like this would be a profitable stealing spot from a chipev standpoint. I think tournamentev considerations are not all too relevant here as the money bubble steps weren't that large at this point and generally my tournamentev will be larger if I have more chips than less.
The question though is how +ev this shove actually is. I think the easiest way to analyze this is to find some ev calculation software and input the variables then run it, because it's a potentially multiway situation it won't be straightforward to calculate using pen and paper. You could also use excel to figure out the numbers. I generally find excel an intriguing piece of software, because it isn't too difficult to learn and it can be applied to various different situations.
However if you were to do this with pen and paper you could get a rough estimations by assuming people's calling ranges and your equity against it excluding the possibility that multiple people call. This obviously won't be very accurate, but it will give you a rough estimation of the ev of the play.
Let me just go over my estimates of ranges for the various players and then tell you what kind of ev I come up with after running simulations.
So the CO only has 6,25bb, this isn't a large stack so one would think he would be compelled to call with a lot of his range. However I believe it is typically correct to assume that there is reasonable chance villain is a poor player waiting for a hand and has thus let himself blind down to his stack size. Naturally he can also be a good player that has just lost the large majority of his stack in a pot. I estimate his calling range at the following: 44+,A7s+,KQs,A9o+,KQo.
I'll assume the BTN, SB and BB will all reshove with: 66+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ and in the case of a reshove they will call with JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ vs a big stack and 88+,AJs+,AQo+ vs the short stack. I will also assume that if there are two calls the third player will only enter the pot with KK+. These are just my rough estimates and not exact ranges, but I think they'll enable me to get some reasonable estimates.
Ok that was very tedious, even though I was using software to aide my calculations. If anybody knows of a better way to do the calculation please let me know.
So apparently based on my estimations of ranges my play will yield me a long term ev of about +3bbs. That is a pretty reasonable ev to have and it would make my play very profitable. From my experience however this ev seems too high. People's calling range will probably wider, especially when the BB is facing the decision whether to call or not when everybody infront of him has folded.
Multiway calling ranges may also be wider. However there is a decent chance my play is +ev nontheless. If I tweak the BB's calling range to include 44,55, KQo and ATo our ev drops to slightly below 3bbs, but is still high.
I think I'm gonna take a break for now and look at the ranges again later. The good thing now is that I can use my calculations as a template for similar spots that may arise in the future.
I'll try and post some of the other spots that came up in my next blog.
So after second guessing my decision of upgrading at all due to CPU restrictions, I've decided to go ahead and order the GTX 460. However I decided against the Gainward version with 2GB. I think I was clearly overvaluing the 2GB in graphic memory. I've decided instead to go with a MSI version of the card.
My final decision was a MSI GTX 460 GDD5 OC Cyclone 1GB. Which is an overclocked 1GB version of the 460 card.
I could have gone with a Gainward 1GB version which would have been faster, but I heard it had the tendency to be noisy aswell. I'll be installing the card when I get back to Austria at the beginning of September and will give you some feedback on whether or not the upgrade was worth it or not.
I also have a cool video link of Tekken versus Streetfighter Gameplay. This game should be coming out in 1.5 years time and I'll definetly be purchasing it when it comes out. I've been having a hard time getting people to play Streetfighter with me, because it's a fairly difficult game at first and my edge is pretty big on them. I obviously softplay them, butit isn't enough to keep the action going.
I find Tekken to be slightly more mainstream than Streetfighter (because Capcom didn't bring out a new Streetfighter version for such a long time) so it should be more easy to get people to play with me. For the interim Fifa 11, which is coming out in October will have to suffice in terms of Xbox action. Here's the video link:
I managed to play about 1700 hands of poker yesterday, which is good for me, because I haven't been putting in the volume I would like. I started out running pretty cold, but ended up running hotter than I ran cold and was able to book a small profit of about 1 buy-in. I played a decent (from what I've seen so far) 6-max reg hu at 5/10 and we got into some interesting spots, so that should be interesting to analyze. I hope to get some more action going later today, but I'll be heading out to a grill party with my mother in a bit.
That's right, London baby. I try to make it back home 2-3 times a year. And during the Summer period I usually try to make that one of them. My summer visits usually consist of visiting friends and family, enjoying the small things that the UK has to offer (for example junk food, a bigger selection of shops and products, movies in their original versons etc.) and also grinding, because I'm very undisturbed out here. This year I brought one of my Samsung 204b's with me, because I had one spare after the purchase of my new 27" Dell and I've just finished setting it up. It's actually a reasonable setup with my 17" laptop to accompany it. I've set this up at my Mum's house, which is actually slightly outside of London, to the east in Sittingbourne. I believe I'm about 2 hours away from the city centre.
I'll be staying out here for a total of 2 weeks, before I have to go back to Austria and start prepairing for Uni to start again. I'll probably not be doing much more travelling when I get back, though I do have a trip scheduled to Italy with some friends in early September. The only thing that could hinder those plans were if the weather were really bad.
On another note, I'm still struggling to get back into a groove with football practice. I've been plagued with minor injuries to my hamstrings ever since I've gotten back into the game and at times it has been tough to keep my motivation/momentum going. I can play to some degree, but it's like I'm constantly playing at 80% performance. This two week trip will be good for my hamstrings as they are starting to give me problems again. My plan is to do a lot of swimming, have some hot baths and eat and sleep well. That should get me in good shape to go at it again in the championship, hopefully.
Gaming has been kinda frustrating latley, because I allways get lag when I play multiplayer Starcraft II as soon as the battles get bigger. 2v2 and 3v3 will consistently lag for me, nomatter the settings, though naturally the least on the lowest settings. Now I know my PC is about 2.5 years old and at the time I purchased it, it was not a high end pc, but I still pretty much meet all the criterea for the recommended specs for Starcraft II. The only area where my PC falters is in terms of graphics. Recommended would be a 8800GTX and I only have a 8800GTS, but ffs I'm playing on minimum settings :S (1280x1024 res). I even have a SSD and a fairly new installation of win7 64bit prof, which should increase my performance some.
Now I've been thinking about what I can do to get a smoother performance without being as drastic as buying a new PC just so I can play SCII on maximum settings smoothly.
Here is what I came up with:
This is a Nvidia 460GTX GS with 2GB ram. It should set me back around 250$, but should clear up the problems I have with lag. This will also enable me to upgrade from DVI to HDMI which should give me an even better picture on my 27".
Ok, I really need to grab some food now and hopefully put in some hands of poker. If I could get in around 2k hands that would be nice. I have been really motivated lately, but have been having trouble finding the time to put in the volume I would like to. However I hope that will soon change.
