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Life of Matt Plecki

Apr
13
2011
Trading site, input wanted
Posted in Poker | View Comments (44)
 

I've already messaged a handful of leggo guys on skype, but figured I'd throw it up on the blog anyways.

I'm in the works of starting a trading site, and here's a summary of what'd it be like.

Goal: to provide poker players with the ability to manage one’s wealth, as well as provide education to poker players trying to learn a form of investment. Trading stocks have been highly profitable over a long term and can eventually translate to a larger source of income than poker, helping poker players become less reliant on poker and the uncertainties than come with it. How long that period is depends on the individual, and how tolerant he is to risk.

How the site works: It’d be similar to a CR or Leggo; however it’d only have one main professional trader. The trader has audited results (10yrs) and crushes the market currently, so you are learning from someone that has crushed the games over a large sample, and continues to do so. The trading is done in the stock market, although the concepts you learn are applicable to FX or commodities. Our site will solely educate on how you can become an independent trader in the stock market. The site would not be a fund, and you as the user make all the decisions: amount you want to have as a trading “roll,” how much you want to risk per position, what trades you want to take, etc. We will however, be able to walk you through in the very beginning, and even spoon feed the information. Likely, there will be a daily email with exact buy and sell points for you to take if you choose. Keep in mind, the long term goal is to provide you with the education to do the trading on your own. When you want to take off the training wheels is up to you. If you want to “bumhunt” and just take the positions, you can, and will make money. A monthly fee for membership will be implemented, with a discount for paying for an entire year. The price has yet to be determined. We’re looking at having poker site payments as options as well, which would be sick.

Education methods: many players are looking for some sort of investment vehicle for the money they’ve made from grinding, but it seems most forums are full of people that don’t know how to start. Well this site would be how to start, and will help you bypass a lot of mistakes other’s have made, time and time again. The site would mainly educate by means of short videos (5 to 10 minutes ) with commentary from the head trader, along with the ability to post questions (same as poker videos). There would be daily market wrap up videos, videos on specific positions, and videos covering the past big winners in the market.
Content/Philosophy: The trading methodology is a hybrid of the CANSLIM method, created by William J. O’Neil. This method works the best for us, and has resulted in the best returns for the past 130 years. In short, it’s like playing the JJ+ AK in the poker world, and being able to reload to 1000bbs mid hand after you flop quads. You’re making plays on pretty nutted stocks that have a lot of room to run, with very narrow downside risk (7% max). The specific trading method will be explained in much further detail. This is far from day trading, but as we will show, the returns from using our method will shatter most everything else. To become fully in tune with the market, it does take time. However, you can only read so many poker books, talk about so many hand histories, or watch so many videos before realizing putting in the hands is the best teacher. The same goes for the stock market; the more experience you have actually being in the market the better, and more helpful. Again, you can treat the site as a coach sweating your session, telling you to call, raise, or fold. You’ll make money doing that, but the goal is help you make those decisions yourself.

Other: The site would have a live chat room, forums, video archives (trading method base on history, hence the review of the past biggest winners… the same characteristics show up), videos outlining how to setup your trading account, videos on how to use software, booklist (potentially with online library), reading groups( Q&As with experts, discussion amongst peers), blogs, live weekend review sessions, to get “live coaching” from the lead trader, affiliate program. The idea is you have a login to access the site, which will have every resource you want to get better trading. You can progress at your own speed, or work with our program to help you reach your goal.

Lead trader: The results for the leading trader will be provided by an outside auditor. No bull shit on this end. We want to provide you the best service we can, which is based around how well our trader performs.

Anyways, I'd like to hear anyones input as to why or why not someone would want to join a site like this. Please comment here, PM me, or msg me on skype @ matt.plecki

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Comments
04-14-2011
ssells73 is offline ssells73
Hit me up on AIM, I'm very interested in this
04-14-2011
donkaholic is offline donkaholic
this is a very sick idea.This would be the nuts for newby traders for sure.gl and hope you make this happen
04-14-2011
K_Man is offline K_Man
Yeah this sounds great, I've wondered in the past if this kind of site could exist.

What do you think a minimum daily time requirement would be for a poker player to do this as a side project? Obviously the more time the better, but it is possible to be reasonably +ev doing this 1 or 2 hours a day?
04-14-2011
coachgp is offline coachgp
The people I've talked to so far have mentioned the opportunity cost of me playing poker vs working on the site. As for trading, once you've learned and are ready to go, you only need an 30-1hr a day, if that. Depends on how much you wanna continue learning and how you count that. I've already re-read some books twice, but dont really facotr that into the 30m-1hr. And then the site would have all the resources available to you so you can get the initial learning down at your own pace.

If you're extremely motivated, I think people can learn it in 6mo, prob doing like 15hrs of week per week. Maybe 12-16 books to read, light reads, not very theory intensive. Otherwise most say a years time, which is completely reasonable esp at an hour a day. You could just keep a book on ur nightstand and read for 20m before bed, and 20m when you wake up and that'd be enough to complete it in a year. Experience is a big teacher and you learn a ton as you go. Getting a heads up on mistakes that are bound to happen is extremely helpful and saves you a lot of money and headache.

I'll likely post an example of an account with returns (just play around with say 5-10k, add 10% of what u make per month in poker, and return of 2 or 3% per month), but it is not even close to how +EV it is in the long run, plus it's pretty passive income- don't have to grind out tons of hours, able to do it wherever. I personally enjoy learning about it, but even lazy poker players that could care less I'm sure would be very interested if you showed them some sample accounts (obv they are too lazy to see themselves in excel)
04-14-2011
K_Man is offline K_Man
Yeah it sounds like an excellent idea, I'll definitely be interested in signing up.
04-14-2011
Faramir is offline Faramir
Very interesting,
I think this is a very interesting opportunity, that will attract a lot more people than just your regular poker player.
What you need is a professional trader that knows the ropes very well, and also grabs your attention (isn't a boring person!!) and a well set-up layout on the website, so everyting is easy to find.
Good luck in setting up the site, finding your trader, and advertising the site to make it a big succes!
04-14-2011
th3h4x is offline th3h4x
definitely got my attention on this
04-14-2011
smittyuf is offline smittyuf
I'd be interested in signing up!
04-14-2011
bw07507 is offline bw07507
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definitely interested. Have been wanting to get involved in this for awhile but really have no idea where to start
04-14-2011
LT22 is offline LT22
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how about you manage my funds, GUARANTEE me 1.5% returns per month regardless of results (18% over 12 months), and I'll give you the easy 0.5-1.5%/month for doing nothing besides making the exact same trades you do for yourself. Only time it would cost you would be to execute the trades on my behalf.
04-14-2011
LT22 is offline LT22
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also, you've got competition within the poker market on another poker training site (the blog was posted a few days ago)
04-14-2011
Probability is online now Probability
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+1

you have a link to the blog?
04-14-2011
LT22 is offline LT22
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yea I'll PM you Matt
04-14-2011
coachgp is offline coachgp
We've talked about doing a fund, but you really need a lot of money to make it worth while. Like 6 figures + from each person. The trader is starting a fund in a few years and mentioned 10mm min. Doing a fund would likely make you a lot more money, but its a different project. Worse case, check out the site down the line for a month, see if you like his "style" and when he starts up the fund, then give him a go
04-14-2011
coachgp is offline coachgp
PM me too ya?
04-14-2011
Probability is online now Probability
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04-14-2011
Probability is online now Probability
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Quote:
We've talked about doing a fund, but you really need a lot of money to make it worth while. Like 6 figures + from each person. The trader is starting a fund in a few years and mentioned 10mm min. Doing a fund would likely make you a lot more money, but its a different project. Worse case, check out the site down the line for a month, see if you like his "style" and when he starts up the fund, then give him a go
i think LT is saying hes willing to pay somewhere between 6% and 18% in "management fees" which probably lowers the required amount by quite a bit since a traditional fee would be somewhere around 1-3%.

just tack him on to your trades which should not take more than a few minutes a day and you can just take everything off the top..

basically he's offering you a loan at an 18% apr and you are able to generate returns of 24% - 36% by...
Quote:
playing the JJ+ AK in the poker world, and being able to reload to 1000bbs mid hand after you flop quads.
... a pretty risk free strategy.

sorry if this comes across assish but i am highly skeptical of what you suggest is possible.
04-15-2011
coachgp is offline coachgp
the 1000bb thing is well over exagerated

and theres a bit of red tape for just adding someone elses money and trading it for them. that plus the headache for anything less than 6 figures is just not worth it. Much easier to deal with 5 guys with say 1mm each, rather than 50 with 100k, or 250 with 20k.

With the loan thing, it'd be easier to just get a hard money loan which is std 12-18% per year?
04-15-2011
Probability is online now Probability
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So is that something you have already done? With your confidence and predicted results I assume you are leveraged to the hilt?
04-15-2011
coachgp is offline coachgp
I did 66% since sept, and that was me gettin out of some positions... i think i posted BIDU NFLX ARUN all on here, which went way up and left me behind but im still pretty new. With sites like IB, your broker will jsut give you margin. IB does margin at a very low %.... much much lower than 12%. Like 5% if that, so you can borrow up to 500% from them if thats what you want
04-15-2011
Probability is online now Probability
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Fair enough. Nice results!
04-15-2011
th3h4x is offline th3h4x
looks like I'm going to have to start really focusing on this since the gov't is ruining my poker dream =(
04-15-2011
coachgp is offline coachgp
wait what? i have no clue what that stuff means RJ, I didnt make like any money on those trades, I got shaken out,and they ran higher without me. I made my money on other trades that weren't posted on leggo. I just posted ARUN BIDU NFLX i believe
04-15-2011
coachgp is offline coachgp
And I wasn't 500% leveraged ever, 2.3 to 1 was my max. I was pointing out u can get 500k for every 100k. Also, I'm not runnign anyones money, I'm highlight a trader with a 10yr track record. His strat is literally the same on wiki
04-16-2011
Probability is online now Probability
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Hey Coachgp,

I am going to undelete RJ's comment for a few reasons.

* Your claims seem unrealistic.

* RJ is the most educated person I know when it comes to stocks.

* I am legitimately concerned for people why think what you suggest is possible.

As long as you want to promote your site on Leggo RJ will have the option to critique anything you say. When you solicit comments on your blog and delete a very informed view it does not sit well with me.
04-16-2011
Probability is online now Probability
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OP by redjoker:

Quote:
Quote:
I did 66% since sept, and that was me gettin out of some positions... i think i posted BIDU NFLX ARUN all on here, which went way up and left me behind but im still pretty new. With sites like IB, your broker will jsut give you margin. IB does margin at a very low %.... much much lower than 12%. Like 5% if that, so you can borrow up to 500% from them if thats what you want
The SPX returned 25.28% and the current implied vol is 13.94. Looking at the three shares you listed they have volatilities of:

BIDU - 46.16
NFLX - 53.84
ARUN - 60.87

Their correlations are:
BIDU : NFLX - 0.2599
ARUN : NFLX - 0.1445
BIDU : ARUN - 0.3894

Using an equal weighted portfolio that gives a portfolio volatility of 38.77.

Since Libor for 6 months back in Sep was 0.50 this implies you would have returned 69.61% if you'd leveraged yourself to the equivalent risk in the market.

Putting your 66% into market returns means that you underperformed the market by 1.64% or about 3% annualized.

I also had a look at some of your other recommendations, SPRD is 70 vol, PCLN is 40, OYOG doesn't even have options listed because it's too low cap and LVS is 46 vol. Adding those into the portfolio meant you just about broke even vs. the market.

Given that:
a) your cherry picked return period couldn't beat the market
b) you likely had no idea what it actually means to beat the market and
c) your "strategy" is on wikipedia FFS

it's pretty clear that you should not be managing anybody's money or giving any type of trading/investing advice.

Congratulations on being synthetically triple leveraged while the market gained 25% though, that takes quite an advanced level of luckboxing.
04-16-2011
Probability is online now Probability
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OP by Redjoker:

Quote:
If you have no idea what I'm talking about then you shouldn't be giving investment advice, any first or second year finance class would teach you this stuff. All I did was calculate the standard deviation of a portfolio of the shares you listed and compared it to the market standard deviation. I never said you were 500% leveraged, the portfolio of stocks you mentioned had almost 3 times as much risk as the market which means you need to make 3 times as much return to beat the market, you didn't, and it turns out you were leveraged on top of it.

I can guarantee that any strategy that is posted publicly on wikipedia will not beat the market. If you don't even know how to measure a track record then it's less than meaningless for you to claim he has one.
04-16-2011
LT22 is offline LT22
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yea I mean either you have to own up to the facts or this entire blog needs to be deleted (I'm leaning towards that). I understand Leggo has a "freedom of speech" policy, but this just seems over the top spam
04-16-2011
clayton is offline clayton
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I hit you up on Skype GP
04-16-2011
coachgp is offline coachgp
Updated 04-16-2011 at 08:10 AM by coachgp
Sure, I really just took offense to that post, and didn't feel like I had to defend myself. Guess I was wrong. What he posted really has nothing to with my positions. The correlations are irrelavent? At least I never even bother with the stats he's using. I know from previous posts, RJ believes in EMT, which I don't. All you have to do is look at stocks that from there buy points and see how much they went up or down, it's that simple. How those correlations play any role is beyond me. If I underpreformed the market, that's fine. I'm not claiming to be a good trader. In fact I posted how I was out of those trades too early.

I mentioned I did not make my money off those stocks as I was shaken out. Off the top of my head, I posted I was long BIDU at 90.00 and sold around 100. The stock is trading at like 140 now. Depending on how much you weight you put into your position, you can clear 50% from that trade alone. Not all my positions are weighted equally, which should be given. I also mentioned that these weren't all my personal trades, or even close to it. I'd be more than happy to share my trade results by gettin them from my site broker. If desired, I could just post them, but there's really not much to get from that as posting stuff after the fact and saying oh I made X amount usually has nothing to it.

Also, I wasn't promoting my site. I was asking for input on how to make something better, and was interested in hearing if some liked the concept. I stated to the trader doing that is highlighted for the site would have his trading history available to anyone interested. Pretty hard to argue against the numbers over a sample of 10yrs.

This is beyond ridiculous that I have to "own up to facts" or have a blog deleted, have "unrealistic claims" as I didn't claim anything? If you don't like my blog, just don't read it? The 1000bb thing was clearly an overexageration where I didn't think anyone would take that seriously.
 
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