Hey guys I did an analysis on another forum of a hand with a difficult river decision. I tried to analyze some good/decent flop/turn defense ranges, and the proper turn betting range for villain to arrive at the river with two set ranges that I could then solve an approximate equilibrium for, using 1 betsize and 1 raise size (stacks were deep enough for 3 bets on the river, but I ignored for simplicity).
I thought leggo readers would enjoy this as well. If you want updates for when I post similar pieces of analysis in other locations follow What The Flop on twitter : @WTFlopPoker
Originally Posted by The_Raven
Position Name Stack
SB $631.50 (105.3 bb)
BB Hero $1,821.42 (303.6 bb)
BTN $919.68 (153.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K
BTN raises to $12, SB folds, Hero calls $6
Flop: ($27) 2
Hero checks, BTN bets $18, Hero calls $18
Turn: ($63) 7
Hero checks, BTN bets $45, Hero calls $45
River: ($153) Q
Hero checks, BTN bets $117, Hero ???
Villain is 47/40/22.8 over 70 hands with these being mostly 2/3 handed a little 4 handed.
Thoughts on river? On the one hand I'm near the top of my range here and he probably triples this card fairly frequently.
On the other, my range <<<<<< His range on this river.
Did some equilibrium work for the river, and worked out decent defense ranges for flop/turn
BTW ignore the specific EV values for everything on flop/turn. I didnt fill out the irrelevant parts of the game tree so they dont mean anything. The EV values for the river approximate equilibrium are exact though
This is actually a really interesting river spot after doing some analysis. I would play looser preflop here than most, but I have my default flop defense range as
Checkraise: 9% of my preflop range- just under half weak bluffs, 10%ish strong draws, 40% value
Check Call: (47.4%)- any pair, remaining fd, gutter+, overcards, Any hand with Ad
fold to cbet of 43.4%, slightly high- might add in A9 to c/c range but close either way
On turn 7s
Checkraise range: (5.3%) - T7/77, 54, 20% of AJ- makes him roughly indifferent to calling the checkraise with Tx hands which is the bottom of his correct value range on turn (T8+). Our turn value range is small but its equity is extremely high and will be able to value bet most river run outs, so we are allowed to bluff a bit more (and Id used a bigger sizing, close to pot)
Check Call: (51.9%)- Any 7x or better, any remaining FD (all should be +EV to call to this betsize), A5/A4 (surprisingly from all the sims I ran, these were the next best hands- villain should be vbetting T8+, and I used a bluff range of OESD/Most FDs, and K high or worse non gutter hands
The amazing thing is that on this river, given the ranges Ive layed out, if the BB doesnt use a donking range, the BTN shouldn't vbet less than a flush
So on the river, the approximate equilibrium with no river donking range would be:
BTN Bets for value: (15.4%)
BTN Bluffs: (8.14%)
The BB should checkraise (used bigger sizing of $450, little less than pot): (9.2%) - 2nd nut flush or better, and 75% of his A7/A5+diamond combos- the exact % of each combo would be different than 75% but its not worth the time to figure out each combo's exact %- obv A7o should be checkraised more than A5
Check Call: (39.9%)
Obviously given the BTN's betsize of less than pot you would expect BB would need to defend more than 50% of his range. But if each player uses the best cards available for card removal, this is going to be really close to equilibrium
EV of betting QQ on the river here is +$113, and the ev of checking back is +119. Similar relationship for all other hands worse than a flush. Card removal and the threat of facing a checkraise (If btn vbets too wide, BB can start really going wide for value), combined with the frequency of the BB having a flush on the river forces the BTN to check behind
BTNs bet/call range- (35.1%)
Not going to solve the donk bet game, but intuitively, I would think the BB should keep checkraising the same basic range, and donk out his other flushes (if stacks are deep enough he may prefer to bet/3bet his nut flushes instead of checkraise), plus the other A5/A4 combos, calling approximately 1-alpha of his range to a raise, adjusted for card removal
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Stack and Tile is a table management+hotkey software tool created by 2p2 user Greg Nice. A couple days ago I posted in his thread on 2p2, because I had a support issue that I needed help on. Greg was very helpful with my issue. He then PM'ed me and asked if I would use my blog on leggo to write a review. I've never had any interaction with Greg outside of remembering his name from 2p2 posts, and of course using Stack and Tile.
I'm writing this review from the point of view of someone who has used stuff like hotkey's very sparingly over the years (probably <10% of my total hands played) and have never used a table management program before, probably to my detriment. Basically I would just use the pokersite's own features to get by, and the only additional software I would use while playing was HEM, and now PT4. So I guess I'm a bit of a fish when it comes to additional software.
A few months ago, I went searching through the 2p2 software forum for something that would allow me to tile tables from multiple sites in a prearranged pattern, as well as software that would allow me to use the same hotkeys for all the sites, not just poker stars and party poker. Again, Im a pretty big fish, and the AHK script stuff was too confusing for me. I had used them before, but anytime a problem came up I had no clue what to do, since I dont know anything about how scripts work or code or whatever. Obviously Im a lazy poker player, so I just decided not to use scripts.
When searching 2p2, I found a few programs, but none of them worked with all the sites, and some of them didnt have hotkeys that would work universally. Some of these were promising they would work with more sites in the future, except when I searched a little more I realized they had mostly been promising that for months but kept getting sidetracked. Im sure if you search 2p2 software forum, you can figure out the programs I'm referring to. Anyways, I also found stack and tile, which specifically for me was actually perfect
Stack and Tile can do the following things
-allows you to have a preset table layout for every single site (more on this below)
-Allows you to use basic hotkey functions for every single site (fold, call, raise were all I needed, since I like to type or click custom betsizes, not predefined betsizes). There's no betsize hotkeys, but besides fold/call/bet there are other hotkeys to help you with table management, which I explain below
-besides your stacking layout, it also provides a way to stack independently, so you can move tables in and out of the stack and into the "grid" as you need them. For me, since I play HU and like to start 6max games HU, I leave the HU tables that I'm waiting for action at in the stack, and my active tables in the "grid". Guys who play a lot more tables though, could probably make more use out of the function of being able to move tables in and out of the stack as they need them.
-stack and tile has pre-defined set up for the following sites: Pokerstars, FTP (relevant again soon!), Party, UB (lol), Cake 1 &2, Merge, Everest, True Poker, Ongame, iPoker, Bovada/Bodog, 888Pacific
-However one of the cool features, is if you play on any other smaller sites that aren't included, you can actually create your own profile for that site in about 5 minutes. The only site where Ive done this was Microgaming, but it worked perfectly (fully functional), and took about 5 minutes
- The main downside is the pricing. Greg charges a monthly fee to use stack and tile instead of a one time payment. It is $8.95/month if you play 50nl/plo or below, and $17.95/month for unlimited use for all stakes. To some people this may be a sticking point. For me, it was well worth it because this program did everything I was looking for, and was insanely easy for a software donk like me to install, set up and use
-Another smaller downside, might be if you rely on betsizing hotkeys, you'll have to use another program along with S&T. Again for me I hate using pre-defined betsizes so this was moot
For me, I estimate that using this program helps me get about 20% more hands/hr then I did before. Again, I literally was using no software of any kind, so that may be higher than it would be for you. Obviously people can make their own estimations on what X% of extra hands/hr means to your per month take away.
Being able to quickly get rid of tables from my screen when someone quits me HU (or hit and runs me
), and not spending time dragging tables different places across my screen is absolutely huge because instead of diverting my attention away from the action (where I could pick up on timing tells or just stay more focused/in the zone), I now just tap a button on my numberpad without even explicitly thinking about it. Plus, I always would have tilting moments trying to use multiple software clients together (some of them are designed so poorly- Ongame wtf?), and now I don't. Then add in being able to use the same 3 keys for fold/call/raise on each site, and it really quickens my play
So, yea I 100% recommend stack and tile. The pricing is obviously not ideal, but Greg does offer I believe a 2 week trail period before you pay for anything with full functionality
Heres a picture of my set up. I Tried to get it all in one shot. The 9 tables tiled on the right, are where my tables go when I have action. As you can see because ongame software is retarded, the tables cant match up edge to edge (ongame tables are square instead of rectangular), but theres no overlap and a clear "grid" feel to it even despite the awesome software programmers of Ongame. If you only played at sites with competent programmers, there would be no empty space. On the left is my "stack" where any empty tables go. If I want to move a table from my stack to the grid, I press the + sign on my number pad. Fold/Call/Raise are the top right 3 buttons on my number pad, and the buttom to move grid tables back to the stack is the number lock button on the left side of my number pad (my number pad is on the left side of my keyboard). That way I dont have to move my hand for any of my actions (fold/call/raise/moving tables back and forth)
The reason it looks weird is the stack is on my 2nd monitor which is a 24", and my grid is on my 30"monitor, so the screenshot turns out weird
Here's a picture of how you can rearrange how your grid and stack looks
Stack and Tile 2p2 Thread
For my next video, or possibly next two, I'd like to review some member's hands for HUNL for stakes of 100nl-1KNL.
If you'd like me to review a hand of yours, PM me up to 5 hand histories. Included with each HH should be the following stats for your opponent:
-Fold to 3bet
-Fold BB to steal attempt
-Flop, Turn and River cbet % (all three)
-Flop, Turn and River fold to cbet % (all three)
Along with those stats, if theres any other stats which specifically pertain to the hand in question, you should send those too. For example, if villain 4bet you, you should send Villain's 4bet%. Or if Villain check raised you, you can send his checkraise % for each street. The more stats you give me the better
Any additional reads, that I cant pick up on from the stats can be included as well, but if you'd rather not include your reads on the specific player that's fine too
** The HH format you send me should be importable into PT4/HEM. I think if you right click on the HH in your database, their should be an option to view or export the HH which should work
Xposting this in my last video thread, as well as HUNL forum. Thanks in advance to anyone that ships me HH's!
I was holding this out as a last resort and then I ran 8k below EV today, so I guess Ill try it. People who post run good graphs always go on a huge downswing, so I assume opposite is true. I am also hoping that it can not get worse so I am possibly freerolling
And in BB's
gogogo run good
During any poker session, most of our profit and loss comes from our decisions to fold, check, call, bet, or raise. This blog post is going to deal with the other decisions that impact how much money we make. I started writing all this down just for myself, as a reminder to my future self, but it seemed like a nice thing to share. Some of them are kind of specifically just for me and will apply less to some people, but I think in general they might be helpful. If anyone wants to add anything to the list, please leave it in the comments.
Sleep is the most crucial thing for me.
Sleep contributes so many important things to a playing session
-Alertness (not auto piloting)
-ability to think critically in short amounts of times
-mood/tiltiness or proneness to tilt
I've gone through periods where I tried to wake up to an alarm or limit my sleep in some way so that I wasnt sleeping 9-10 hours. I think that has definitely negatively affected my poker playing for that day. I generally play much better when I just allow myself to sleep in as long as I want. Obviously if you are getting to the point where you sleep 12+hours a day, something is probably wrong. But I dont worry so much about the days where I go to bed at 2am and sleep until noon. I try to just let my body regulate its sleep schedule as it sees fit with no interference from my conscious mind.
If I don't feel rested when I wake up, then I either shouldn't play that day, or try to take a nap(s) until I do feel rested. Otherwise, I try to take advantage of my time by doing other productive activities that day that don't involve me risking thousands of dollars on a day when I don't feel alert. I might use my time to do extra analysis on my poker game, get an extra workout in during the day (this might help you sleep better the next night), read a book I've been meaning to get to, do errands that I normally do another day, etc. You can usually make good use of a day off.
addendum to sleep:
If you can recognize before you load up tables that you have been having a shitty day or are in a shitty mood, for whatever reason it may be, don't play until that legitimately changes. Sometimes for me, I can be in a shitty mood for almost no reason, although I think it correlates highly to not getting enough sleep, another reason to get more sleep.
Iíve found that playing on both an empty stomach that wants to eat, or a stomach that just overstuffed itself are both suboptimal for my playing sessions. The best situation is to make sure to eat meals that are not too large, and have just a bit of spacing in between when you finish eating and when you start playing your session. Obviously meals stuffed with fruits, veges, lean meats, whole grains are great for you. I am aware of some studies that say that eating sugar is also good for you in terms of allowing your brain to work at a higher level during intense decision making, but personally, I view sugar as basically poison to my body and limit it at all costs (nobody is perfect obviously though). I also remember watching mynameisgreg's fitness video way back when and he mentioned that drinking water during sessions is important because it has positive effects on your ability to think well. I always try to keep some water at my desk during the day. Only downside is you might have to pee during the middle of a session which sucks whether you decide to hold it or get up and go to the bathroom (Sorry I cant imagine pissing in a bottle at my desk, although I do admire the dedication)
Ive tried sticking to a preset schedule for both my day and for my play. For whatever reason I just absolutely detest it. About the most scheduling I can put up with is a schedule for coaching, which may require 2 or 3 1-2 hour blocks set during the week. Iíve found that for me its best to keep my daily schedule completely flexible to allow me to engage in activities at the optimal time. If I don't really feel like playing poker after I worked out, then I do something else. During the times that I do feel like playing poker, I try to maximize my use of that time. Attitude and mental outlook when I start a session is very important to how well I play and concentrate during my session, so I cant have the feeling that I am forcing myself to play when I don't actually want to. (same could apply to any other activity really)
Time of Day:
If I plan on being awake 15-17 hours each day, Iíve found that playing poker during the first 3-4 hours or the last 3-4 hours of the day isnt optimal for me. During both these periods of the day I think my brain isnt working quite as fast as I would like. I think trying to use these times to do things like analyzing your game or game situations (probably better in the morning to get your brain warmed up), working on other activites (for me this would be stuff like reading economic blogs, or reading up on value investing), or relaxing/leisure/working out. I find when I play mostly during the middle part of my day I do a lot better. That will shorten my time period for playing considerably, but I think it works out ok. If I take advantage of the early morning to do stuff like analyzing my game and/or working out, assuming I got a good nights sleep, that usually motivates me to start playing, either because I want to put something to use that I just learned or because I was dreading another minute doing ev calcs!
Hours per day:
For me, I find that its important to hit a sweet spot for hours I play per day, and I would say this is 3-5 hours for me. If I play less than 3 hours, I feel unproductive on the day. I also think playing atleast 3 hours keeps your poker mind/decisions sharp, where as if you have a few days in a row where you play 0-2 hours, my decisions usually start getting a bit more sloppy. On the other hand, I also find that playing more than about 5 hours in a day usually causes me to play less or worse the next day. I find that after about 5 hours my brain starts to feel fried a bit the next day causing me to either sit out from playing, or not play as well. Obviously, playing your 6th or 7th hour may be +EV, but is it +EV to do it day after day? For me I have decided that it is not. Continual overload of my brain day after day eventually leads to me playing poorly. Finding the sweet spot is really important for me.
For me I also want to find...
Hey guys, did this flop analysis for myself and some students and thought I would post it here since I hadnt done anything in a while. The file is really big so I cant put a picture of the whole thing. Basically for those who are familiar with CREV, I layered the turn cards, and then used the board texture function on the postflop condition menu for the river to account for turn/river card run outs. This is not perfect, but MUCH more accurate than using checkdowns.
All numbers are using 5/10 as the stakes, so an EV of 50= EV of 5bbs
Ok so first, villains btn range is 90% of hands, and our flatting range for the sim is
Villains Flop Strategy
Villains betting range is a bit complicated to describe here because I used a ton of variables, but basically hes betting any JT+, FD, oesd, and then varying %s of 8x, 2x, 33-77, high cards with backdoor FDs, high cards without backdoor FDs
His overall betting range is 53.4% on the flop= his cbet %.
Vs a checkraise to 14bbs, he 3bet/calls the flop with
any KT+ without a backdoor flush draws
25% of his KT+ that do have a backdoor flush draw (the rest he calls)
any nut flush draw,
any flush draw that has a gutshot or OESD as well as atleast 1 overcard
flushdraws with two overcards,
and he 3bet/folds the flop with
any gutshot with a backdoor FD
50% of his hands that have As with no pair (backdoor nut flush draw)
That means vs a shove, he calls with 75% of his 3betting range.
Vs a Checkraise, Villain folds 50% of his range (3bet 17%, call 33%)
Villains Turn/River strategy
Again, impossible to describe in totality here, but basically I gave him what I think an aggro guy would play like, with very high turn/river barrel %s (Turn cbet ~68%, river cbet ~52%)
and a strategy that isnt super exploitable in any significant area in terms of folding too often to bets or whatever.
Heros Flop Strategy
OK so given all that, heres the maximally exploitative strategy for hero on the flop
Flop Shove Range vs flop 3bet
Ok so from that, the main things to remember is that whenever a decision is very close- so in this case we'll say check calling Q9o, 44-77 (ev of ~.1-.2bb) is a very close decision) its probably better to err on the option that puts the least amount of money in when applying this analysis to your own game since it is just a model, and its best to use the model conservatively.
What I think is interesting though are several things- We can see that since villain barrels so frequently, and likely stacks off incorrectly on rivers when we hit a flush, check calling almost all flush draws is optimal given that he has a fairly tight betting range on the flop.
We can also see because of the frequency that we get barreled, we prefer to c/c hands as strong as AT. Its also interesting to see the effect of backdoor FDs. Theres the obvious cases like in our checkraising ranges, how we checkraise bluff with hands with backdoor spades. But then also in our c/c range we can see a hand like J9dd becomes better to call when a hand like J9o is a checkraise because of its added equity with backdoor diamonds.
New Set of Assumptions
Given a slightly less aggro turn barreling strategy for SB, heres our MES, fairly similar
Shove vs flop 3bet
I onyl adjusted the turn barreling %s downward by about 10%, so not a huge difference. I left everything else the same. You can see the BB checkraises a little wider for value, and a few more strong draws, but still check calls a lot of FDs and TP hands
Given this strategy we checkraise 17%, and shove over a flop 3bet 31% of that range. We c/c an additonal 56.5% of our range, check folding ~26.7%
Last Set of Assumptions
Ok so this time I gave villain a flop cbet of 62%, with a lower turn cbet of 45-50%, and lower river cbet of 45-50%. Vs a flop checkraise, he 3bets 15.5% of his betting range, and of that stacks off 68% of the time he 3bets the flop. He calls the checkraise 33.8% of the time, and folds 51% of the time. Here is our MES:
~72.7% (adjusted for neutral EV decisions, becomes 53%)
Shove over flop 3bet
~58.1% of c/r range
Note: Remember the decisions that are nearly neutral EV like c/cing 33-77 or K9o etc would be better off folded in game. (these represent 64 of our 235 flop c/c combos so our flop c/c becomes 53%, and our fold to cbet becomes 33%)
Interesting though that we still check call a lot of flush draws including nut flush draws even though villain is pot controlling on turn/river a lot more in the last sim. The reasons check calling FDs is in each sim is because villain incorrectly pays off too widely when the board 3 flushes (note that I didnt make him just pay off with everything, but definitely looser than GTO). And in the case of the first two simulations, villain is betting too widely for value and as a bluff on spade turns and rivers (although he wouldnt necessarily be if we didnt have any FDs in our c/c range), increasing our implied odds on those cards
Also interesting is that we checkraise for value but then fold to the flop 3bet with QT, JT, and T9 in the last sim
I made it to Vancouver! I've moved into an apartment and opened bank accounts and have MB up and running, although not verified yet as that takes a few days and I just opened MB yesterday. But hopefully by the end of the week my limits will actually be halfway decent and I can get onto some sites. Im hoping by the end of the month I can have stars unlocked and get MB VIP.
I am pretty happy with my apartment. Its a little pricy but its worth it to be comfortable when you work from home. Heres a pic from my balcony overlooking downtown/yaletown
So right now I really dont have much to do. Just an odd errand here or there to help things move along with banking/pokersites. Other than that I've just been coaching, working on my game away from the tables, and reading Game of Thrones. Ive made it through the first book and a little ways into the second. The first book got a little bit boring for me in the middle, because I knew what was going to happen from watching the TV series, so the lead up just became a bit of a snooze. But the second book has been really entertaining so far.
On that note, since I have very little to do, I have a lot of extra time for coaching, so I am opening it back up a bit earlier than I had anticipated. Heres a link to my coaching page
with info on my approach to poker and coaching as well as pricing and reviews
I think I am only going to try to stay in Vancouver for a couple months till Xmas/New years and then travel somewhere warmer. Vancouver is an amazing city but I figure I might as well come back when its less cold. I guess the main warm spots would be Asia/Thailand/Australia area or maybe south America, although I dont know much about either climate yet. Poker has turned out to be much more of a life adventure than I anticipated when I decided I wanted to pursue it rather than a normal job. Even though the circumstances surrounding it suck, I'm actually enjoying this aspect of it quite a bit.
Just wanted to update this since I hadnt in so long. I really dont like posting anything too personal on here anymore so I kinda just reserve this for poker related content, but I havent had enough time to post anything here since my last blog. I never ended up finishing up my last blog "article". I just got sidetracked with a lot of more important stuff and at this point I am not motivated enough to finish it.. But I will write more blogs like it or like the StoxEV ones in the future.
I just got my passport in the mail today, and in about 3.5 weeks will be driving up to Vancouver to move there hopefully until April/May, whenever my 180 days is up. Right now I am planning on living alone, but if anyone needs a roomate for the time period I'll be living there, let me know, I may be interested if it seems like a decent fit personality wise.
Just a heads up as well- I anticipate having coaching spots open within a couple months. I still have some people waiting that I will work with first, but likely around the first of the year I'll start taking students on again. Right now I am only coaching HU NL and PLO but will likely open up some 6max NL and PLO coaching at some point in the future, probably next year sometime.
Edit: I explain below, but just so its clear, the analysis here is from Villians Perspective vs a hypothetical BB (Not hero) who is an aggro reg with the stats I posted below
$1/$2 PL Omaha Cash Game, 2 Players
- Hand History Converter
Hero (BB): $327
dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN raises to $6
, Hero raises to $18
, BTN calls $12
Hero bets $26
, BTN calls $26
Hero bets $68
, BTN raises to $292
, Hero calls $215 and is All-In
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)
BTN showed T 8 2 6 and WON $9 (-$317 NET)
Hero showed Q T Q K and WON $653 (+$328 NET)
For the purposes of this hand I am going to assume that the BB has a 3bet % of 25% (in PPT sims I will use "& 35%" at the end of the ranges because a 25% 3bet range isnt necessarily a linear range of the top 25% of hands), and will cbet this board with a frequency of 90% (Id say avg cbet in 3bet pots for aggro regs is going to be 70-80% across all boards, and given this board connects really well with a preflop 3bet range, and it is also a drier board than average I think 90% is reasonable.
From my perspective this hand isnt interesting, but I want to look at it from villains perspective. On the flop he has the option of calling or raise/calling. With 36% equity on the flop vs BB's shoving range (image directly below), BTN would have to raise to 75 or less to avoid calling a shove.
Ok so now I will analyze raise/calling. A preflop range of 25% of hands translates to roughly 14% of hands given card removal. 90% betting range of 14% of hands translates to a betting range of 12.6% of hands
His shoving range is 6.2% of hands or 49% of his betting range
His overall continuing range is 8.74% of hands which is 69% of his overall betting range, which means we get a fold 31% of the time, a shove 49% of the time, and a call 20% of the time
OK so the next thing to do is to choose a raise size. If we make it 91 on the flop then we will have exactly a PSB left when he calls. I think this should be our minimum raise size with our range here. I think since we wont be raise/folding very often and protecting our equity is a major concern with the majority our raising range, it is best to turn it into a 2 street game. I think raising to 91 gives us the most flexibility while also allowing us to turn this hand into a 2 street game. So we will analyze a raise to $91. Now onto the EV calcs
So 31% of the time we risk 91 to win the $36 in the pot + the $26 bet.
.31( $36+$26)= 19.22$
49% of the time we get in 309$ with 36% equity with an overlay of 36$ in the pot. So our share of the pot is:
.36(309+309+26)= $235.44 which is -73.56 less than the $309 we are risking, so we are losing
-$73.56 when we get shoved on
Last, we get called 20% of the time, and have 54% equity vs his bet/call range in a pot of (91+91+36= 218), and we have position and one PSB left (Equity sim below)
Now obviously its basically impossible to calculate how turn/river play out when we are called. But we can make estimates. First take a look at this graph of our hands equity on Turns vs his bet/call range
Once we raise to 91 and get called we need 33% equity to continue with the hand on the turn if we got shoved into. This only seems to be a problem on 5% of turns (I believe only on K turns). Now, if we get shoved into on the turn he may not be shoving his entire range, so our equity might be lower and we might have to fold on some cards. But I think on most cards we are going to be ok to get it in if he shoves. Also, I expect him to check a lot on the turn, and we can make a good decision on whether we should shove to protect our equity or if we should check behind because enough of his range improved. In essence, I am arguing that when we get called, we will be able to realize atleast 100% of our equity and might have a slight advantage over that from being IP, and being the aggressor on the flop with a nutted, wide, balanced range, where as his range for flatting our raise is non nutty, and very drawy and/or medium made hands.
So we risk 91 to win 62$ on the flop, and 20% of the time we arrive at the turn with a pot of $218$ and an equity of 54% with position. For simplicity sake we will assume we realize 110% of our equity on the turn, to account for our positional and range advantage, but also the difficulty of playing a hand like bottom two pair on various straight completing turns.
.54 (110%)( $218)= $129.49
So now we have all of our inputs for our EV equation. We have the EV of the 3 outcomes when we raise (19.22, -36.04, 25.90)
Adding them up, we get an EV of $9.08$ for raise/calling. Im going to guess that calling and/or raise folding is going to be better than that, but who knows. Next blog will cover Raise/folding