Edit: I explain below, but just so its clear, the analysis here is from Villians Perspective vs a hypothetical BB (Not hero) who is an aggro reg with the stats I posted below
$1/$2 PL Omaha Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (BB): $327
Pre-Flop: Q T Q K dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, BTN calls $12
Flop: ($36) K 6 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $26, BTN calls $26
Turn: ($88) 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $68, BTN raises to $292, Hero calls $215 and is All-In
River: ($654) 2 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $654 Pot
BTN showed T 8 2 6 and WON $9 (-$317 NET)
Hero showed Q T Q K and WON $653 (+$328 NET)
For the purposes of this hand I am going to assume that the BB has a 3bet % of 25% (in PPT sims I will use "& 35%" at the end of the ranges because a 25% 3bet range isnt necessarily a linear range of the top 25% of hands), and will cbet this board with a frequency of 90% (Id say avg cbet in 3bet pots for aggro regs is going to be 70-80% across all boards, and given this board connects really well with a preflop 3bet range, and it is also a drier board than average I think 90% is reasonable.
From my perspective this hand isnt interesting, but I want to look at it from villains perspective. On the flop he has the option of calling or raise/calling. With 36% equity on the flop vs BB's shoving range (image directly below), BTN would have to raise to 75 or less to avoid calling a shove.
Ok so now I will analyze raise/calling. A preflop range of 25% of hands translates to roughly 14% of hands given card removal. 90% betting range of 14% of hands translates to a betting range of 12.6% of hands
His shoving range is 6.2% of hands or 49% of his betting range
His overall continuing range is 8.74% of hands which is 69% of his overall betting range, which means we get a fold 31% of the time, a shove 49% of the time, and a call 20% of the time
OK so the next thing to do is to choose a raise size. If we make it 91 on the flop then we will have exactly a PSB left when he calls. I think this should be our minimum raise size with our range here. I think since we wont be raise/folding very often and protecting our equity is a major concern with the majority our raising range, it is best to turn it into a 2 street game. I think raising to 91 gives us the most flexibility while also allowing us to turn this hand into a 2 street game. So we will analyze a raise to $91. Now onto the EV calcs
So 31% of the time we risk 91 to win the $36 in the pot + the $26 bet.
.31( $36+$26)= 19.22$
49% of the time we get in 309$ with 36% equity with an overlay of 36$ in the pot. So our share of the pot is:
.36(309+309+26)= $235.44 which is -73.56 less than the $309 we are risking, so we are losing
-$73.56 when we get shoved on
Last, we get called 20% of the time, and have 54% equity vs his bet/call range in a pot of (91+91+36= 218), and we have position and one PSB left (Equity sim below)
Now obviously its basically impossible to calculate how turn/river play out when we are called. But we can make estimates. First take a look at this graph of our hands equity on Turns vs his bet/call range
Once we raise to 91 and get called we need 33% equity to continue with the hand on the turn if we got shoved into. This only seems to be a problem on 5% of turns (I believe only on K turns). Now, if we get shoved into on the turn he may not be shoving his entire range, so our equity might be lower and we might have to fold on some cards. But I think on most cards we are going to be ok to get it in if he shoves. Also, I expect him to check a lot on the turn, and we can make a good decision on whether we should shove to protect our equity or if we should check behind because enough of his range improved. In essence, I am arguing that when we get called, we will be able to realize atleast 100% of our equity and might have a slight advantage over that from being IP, and being the aggressor on the flop with a nutted, wide, balanced range, where as his range for flatting our raise is non nutty, and very drawy and/or medium made hands.
So we risk 91 to win 62$ on the flop, and 20% of the time we arrive at the turn with a pot of $218$ and an equity of 54% with position. For simplicity sake we will assume we realize 110% of our equity on the turn, to account for our positional and range advantage, but also the difficulty of playing a hand like bottom two pair on various straight completing turns.
.54 (110%)( $218)= $129.49
So now we have all of our inputs for our EV equation. We have the EV of the 3 outcomes when we raise (19.22, -36.04, 25.90)
Adding them up, we get an EV of $9.08$ for raise/calling. Im going to guess that calling and/or raise folding is going to be better than that, but who knows. Next blog will cover Raise/folding