Hey guys, did this flop analysis for myself and some students and thought I would post it here since I hadnt done anything in a while. The file is really big so I cant put a picture of the whole thing. Basically for those who are familiar with CREV, I layered the turn cards, and then used the board texture function on the postflop condition menu for the river to account for turn/river card run outs. This is not perfect, but MUCH more accurate than using checkdowns.
All numbers are using 5/10 as the stakes, so an EV of 50= EV of 5bbs
Ok so first, villains btn range is 90% of hands, and our flatting range for the sim is
Villains Flop Strategy
Villains betting range is a bit complicated to describe here because I used a ton of variables, but basically hes betting any JT+, FD, oesd, and then varying %s of 8x, 2x, 33-77, high cards with backdoor FDs, high cards without backdoor FDs
His overall betting range is 53.4% on the flop= his cbet %.
Vs a checkraise to 14bbs, he 3bet/calls the flop with
any KT+ without a backdoor flush draws
25% of his KT+ that do have a backdoor flush draw (the rest he calls)
any nut flush draw,
any flush draw that has a gutshot or OESD as well as atleast 1 overcard
flushdraws with two overcards,
and he 3bet/folds the flop with
any gutshot with a backdoor FD
50% of his hands that have As with no pair (backdoor nut flush draw)
That means vs a shove, he calls with 75% of his 3betting range.
Vs a Checkraise, Villain folds 50% of his range (3bet 17%, call 33%)
Villains Turn/River strategy
Again, impossible to describe in totality here, but basically I gave him what I think an aggro guy would play like, with very high turn/river barrel %s (Turn cbet ~68%, river cbet ~52%)
and a strategy that isnt super exploitable in any significant area in terms of folding too often to bets or whatever.
Heros Flop Strategy
OK so given all that, heres the maximally exploitative strategy for hero on the flop
Flop Shove Range vs flop 3bet
Ok so from that, the main things to remember is that whenever a decision is very close- so in this case we'll say check calling Q9o, 44-77 (ev of ~.1-.2bb) is a very close decision) its probably better to err on the option that puts the least amount of money in when applying this analysis to your own game since it is just a model, and its best to use the model conservatively.
What I think is interesting though are several things- We can see that since villain barrels so frequently, and likely stacks off incorrectly on rivers when we hit a flush, check calling almost all flush draws is optimal given that he has a fairly tight betting range on the flop.
We can also see because of the frequency that we get barreled, we prefer to c/c hands as strong as AT. Its also interesting to see the effect of backdoor FDs. Theres the obvious cases like in our checkraising ranges, how we checkraise bluff with hands with backdoor spades. But then also in our c/c range we can see a hand like J9dd becomes better to call when a hand like J9o is a checkraise because of its added equity with backdoor diamonds.
New Set of Assumptions
Given a slightly less aggro turn barreling strategy for SB, heres our MES, fairly similar
Shove vs flop 3bet
I onyl adjusted the turn barreling %s downward by about 10%, so not a huge difference. I left everything else the same. You can see the BB checkraises a little wider for value, and a few more strong draws, but still check calls a lot of FDs and TP hands
Given this strategy we checkraise 17%, and shove over a flop 3bet 31% of that range. We c/c an additonal 56.5% of our range, check folding ~26.7%
Last Set of Assumptions
Ok so this time I gave villain a flop cbet of 62%, with a lower turn cbet of 45-50%, and lower river cbet of 45-50%. Vs a flop checkraise, he 3bets 15.5% of his betting range, and of that stacks off 68% of the time he 3bets the flop. He calls the checkraise 33.8% of the time, and folds 51% of the time. Here is our MES:
Check Call ~72.7% (adjusted for neutral EV decisions, becomes 53%)
Shove over flop 3bet ~58.1% of c/r range
Note: Remember the decisions that are nearly neutral EV like c/cing 33-77 or K9o etc would be better off folded in game. (these represent 64 of our 235 flop c/c combos so our flop c/c becomes 53%, and our fold to cbet becomes 33%)
Interesting though that we still check call a lot of flush draws including nut flush draws even though villain is pot controlling on turn/river a lot more in the last sim. The reasons check calling FDs is in each sim is because villain incorrectly pays off too widely when the board 3 flushes (note that I didnt make him just pay off with everything, but definitely looser than GTO). And in the case of the first two simulations, villain is betting too widely for value and as a bluff on spade turns and rivers (although he wouldnt necessarily be if we didnt have any FDs in our c/c range), increasing our implied odds on those cards
Also interesting is that we checkraise for value but then fold to the flop 3bet with QT, JT, and T9 in the last sim