Alright, so last blog I went over all the possible flop actions. If I was going really indepth on the flop, I would have gone back and adjusted some of the checkdown %'s I used because usually it takes a little tinkering to get them right. They were close enough for the purpose of the blog though, and I think we would have come to the same conclusion which was we should cbet every part of our range, and call almost all hands if raised. The main reasons behind this were two things: (1) I was 3betting a top heavy range because villain was not folding to 3bets very much (2) Villain was raising weak made hands on the flop sometimes so our unpaired hands had more equity than usual vs a raise on this textured flop
So now, we will move on to the turn. I am going to delete all actions that didnt happen in the actual hand, and put in the turn card and possible actions, given the revised game tree
Alright next we, put in our assumptions about villains play on the turn. To save time I am just going to put in the checkdown %'s right now as well as run the MES feature.
For his betting range when we check I have him betting TP or better, 50% of his gutshots/oesds that have A or K high with them, all other gutshots/oesds, and 50% of his complete air, which is all Ace Highs
I have him shoving Q8 or better on the turn, as well as any strong draws (gutshot or better+FD), and calling any Jack or better, any gutshot or more, and any flush draw, and any 5 or better as well
Finally, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the option of shoving turn for 1.5x pot. I have him calling the shove with TT or better (I really wasnt sure how often a player like this would be calling 5x-Jx here, so I gave him all Jx and TT to reflect the likely hood that his strategy is either really tight or really loose vs a turn shove)
The checkdown %s are fairly straight forward, just take a sec to look them over.
The results we get look pretty normal I think, but still interesting
Checking Range (stoxev wants us to call all of our checking range)
From here, what I would do is start messing with my assumtions for villains turn strategy. Increase more hands from him shoving/calling turn, or betting turn, or decrease the hands, etc, etc. Just fool around with his strategies, and re-run the MES feature. Keep doing this untill you are bored and/or get a good feel for what adjustments should be made for different opponent strategies
**This is the crux of using stoxev imo. Put in villain strategies, figure out the best counter, change his strategies, rinse repeat. From there then you can make guesses about ways you can counter potential opponent strategies w/o them catching on. Meaning, the stoxev strategies that are perfect counters, are often very overt, and your opponent may catch on and counteradjust. The best way to do it is to come up with strategies that are exploiting what they are doing w/o making it blatantly obvious.
Alright lets go to the river given that I bet.
So on the river I show up in the actual hand with AK. What went through my head at the time was
(1) I thought he would shove most of his Qx on the turn, but I figured sometimes he would call either with weak Qx hands or just because sometimes a donk calls and sometimes he shoves with the same hand
(2) I actually had a pretty good grasp on the number of hands he could have double floated with. I didnt think he would fold turn with any gutshot or better, and I really didnt think he would have shoved any of those draws on the turn either. I thought he would mostly check back A high, and shove all his K high and worse draws
(3) I figured he would snap any Jx if I bet, but wasnt sure if I could get him off 66-TT or 5x/2x. I felt like he would probably fold but I wasnt sure
(4) at the time I didnt think he would value shove Jx on the river. But looking back I think he would have definitely shoved Jx for value. But anything worse like 5x I thought and still think he would check back
(5) small chance i get hero'ed with a worse A high, but I really didnt think this factored in too much at the time. Also small chance he turns 2x or 5x into a bluff. Again, didnt give this much weight at all in my decision
Given all this I had to choose whether it was better to shove and hope he folded 5x or 77, as well as folding out (and avoid getting bluffed off the best hand) all worse hands than my AK. Or was it better to try to induce a bluff. I thought there was a better chance he tries a desperation bluff for half pot than he folds a pair for half pot, so I checked and called.
heres my basic assumptions and the results
Pretty interesting results, and we can see given those assumptions a river shove was better with my AK hand.
So from here, I would again go back and fool around with the assumptions about villains strategy, and keep running the MES each time and taking notes (either mental or within the program or both) about what my optimal counter strategy was.
Another thing you can do is compare EV b/w the two river strategies. For example, if I wanted to see how much worse my c/c was with AK than shoving it, I could input an additional condition for c/c with AK, and see what the ev was.
Alright, hope some people enjoyed reading these last two blogs. This is all stuff I will be covering in some of my future videos more indepthly, and ofcourse I offer private coaching on this stuff for anybody interested.
**btw if you guys notice, especially in the river simulations, theres some pretty cool peculiarities in our strategy because of card removal. The program does a great job of showcasing these differences in many different instances, as you will see the more situations you analyze