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Eagles
My last blog I gave some vague description of table dynamics but now I will use a few example to illustrate it. A simple way of explaining table dynamics is if you understand them you will know when to be on the right level.
I had a hand in my session today where I opened the CO with KK an aggro reg 3bet me on the button and I called the flop was KJ7ss I checked and he bet I considered raising but i figured that it would look very strong, and if I check call my hand looks like a pair and a flush draw. Given this he will bet more on good cards for me than bad cards so I called.The turn was a king giving me quads, I check called again, this is pretty standard he shoves a full house on 100% of rivers and he has a lot of bluffs, some which will backdoor into value shoves for example AsQd. The only hands I lose value from by calling are flopped flushes when a J or 7 or spade hits the river. The river is a blank i check and he checks behind with 24cc. His line here is pretty awful I love playing pots in position but with no outs and no equity its not a good spot. The next orbit I open the button with AA and he 3bets the small blind. My standard play in position is to flat, I can reasonably flat a lot of hands in position and he can 3bet a wide range most of which don't want to get stacks in preflop. However in this spot I opted to 4bet, the reason for this is he knows he just showed down 24s 3betting. His thought process will likely be "I just showed down 4 high, he knows I'm 3betting wide and trying to exploit it." This is a particularly great spot to 4bet because the villain in this spot typically will get too ego-oriented. Instead of thinking rationally about my range of hands his thought process will simply be "I have shown an exploitable tendency, the villain will try to exploit me so I must play back." While he should be considering my range, whether or not I'm balanced how often I flat 3bets and a multitude of options all he can think of is whether or not he will get owned. Villain shoved in this hand for a 130 bbs fairly fast and had KQo. Obviously there is a chance that he just spewed off here but I think there is a fairly good chance if I had 4bet him an orbit earlier he would have folded. I will illustrate another example this from a live tournament. Let's use two examples you get moved to a new table in a live tournament. Average stack is abut 40k at 500/1k/100 Your third hand at the table you open the HJ with 99 and a 40k stack to 2.5k the button a young player with about 100k chips quickly makes it 7500. What is your play? Obviously it is close and we wish we had more information but I would often end up going all in in this spot. Especially if you like me are young looking and will be assumed to be aggressive regardless how you have been playing. Now let us consider another scenario you have been at the table for 30 mins and have opened a few pots none have gone to showdown. You open with 99 with 40k to 2.5kthe HJ and a young player with 100k 3bet makes it 7500 on the button. In this case the young player has been fairly active, but has not yet shown down a hand. He has yet to 3bet and has instamucked his hand to many late position options. What do you do? The second hand is a much more difficult spot. Let's think about what we know in each scenario In the first example Villain has a lot of chips He is young The first hand you have played he has shown aggression. He re-raised his first hand in position. The only other hands he folded to raises in the worst positions at the table. He can have a wide range because you are assumed to be folding or shoving most of your range. What is the probability this player is bluffing? Think about the second example Villain has a lot of chips He is young He has had many opportunities to show aggression but has not. He has insta-mucked many hands indicating his range is significantly narrower. He has had many opportunities to re raise preflop and has yet to do it. What is the probability this player is bluffing? You don't need to give exact answers to these questions, that is not the point. The point is in this scenario most players will (correctly) shove 99. The second scenario is much tougher and against some people its a easy fold, against others its a shove. The point however is to notice how their different images create such different responses from opponents. Which is why its so imporant to be aware of your own image. If you are the BTN in the first hand with QJo its mathematically a +ev spot to 3bet but in doing so you ruin your image for nearly the whole table, it is not worth it, your first impression is so important and now you have ruined it. But by simply being patient and waiting for your spots you get much more credit. In EPT Villamoura, I 3bet 3/4 times on day 1, everytime I was light and everytime I got snapfolds, I did get lucky to run into the bottom of their ranges but simply by creating an image where my range was considered to be strong I gained a lot of EV. I don't mean to post these hands as brags(I lost the KQ pot and didn't cash in Villamoura) but rather I'm pointing out that if you really focus on your image and try and get inside the head of your opponents you can pick up a lot. It may seem like a difficult task, but poker players are not robots, they are humans with tendencies and emotions who will make mistakes. Simply take a deep breath, slow down, focus and try and get inside your opponents head and good things will happen. Timing tells, live reads, bet sizing all can give you a lot of information but its not cryptic. I don't think someone who bets small is weak always but sometimes I do. Just ask yourself questions. What does my hand look like to him? Why would he bet small? What is he trying to accomplish? As long as you remember to be aware of these little things you will pick up a lot more information and your game will improve.
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