Hey guys

I know that for most of you these two pictures will look identical, but there are 2 (two) differences between them. It's up to you to find where they are. The one who will find the 2 (two) differences will get a surprise prize! You have one day to figure this out! GL

Even tho I said I'm gonna quit sports betting (and I will prolly do it) I'm gonna make a last post about betting the WC games. I picked a total of 22 games and got right 18, which is about 82%, with an average of 1.50 odds. If you get 70% of them you score a profit.

Well, I scored 562.4 € placing 100 € a bet, which I think is fine for a seasonal bettor, but I'm no pro sports betting guy...

1. Argentina - Nigeria - 1, odds 1.57.. result 1-0. I had no big worries about this game, but near the end the nigerians could have equalised.. Anyways, Argentina played pretty well and Messi missed a lot of opportunities.



2. England - USA - 1, odds 1.50.. result 1-1. England started very well, scoring in the begining but Green made a huge mistake and the yankees got the draw, even tho Heskey and CO missed a lot of chances... Also, USA could have won this but they hit the post.. At that time I was like: "dude, wtf is happening??? 1 out of 2... I'm gonna lose a lot of money on this WC...



3. Netherlands - Denmark - 1, odds 1.67.. result 2-0. Had no worries about this. I knew the dutch will win this game cuz their top players were in top form, even tho Robben didn't play...



4. Brazil - Korea DPR - 1, odds 1.10.. result 2-1. Actually this bet was a mistake... I shouldn't have made it, but I thought wtf, it's free money... But, it was a hard one... Brazil struggled a bit with the asians...



5. Argentina - South Korea - 1, odds 1.38.. result 4-1. At this bet I was robbed of ~15 € because I picked it before the WC started, and after day one, the odds were ~1.50-1.55... Anyways, it was one of the easiest bets I put.



6. England - Algeria - 1, odds 1.30.. result 0-0. This time, the brits played awful and they deserved to score only a draw, even tho Lampard had some chances... At the time, I was 4 out of 6 and I was like, probably I'm gonna break even, which is not that bad after all, I just tried something different...



7. Netherlands - Japan - 1, odds 1.50.. result 1-0. Pretty narrow win for the dutch, but again they seemed to be the better team all along.



8. Italy - New Zealand - 1, odds 1.40.. result 1-1. I placed this bet at half time.. I couldn't think that the reigning world champions couldn't win against New Zealand... Of course, Italy missed a tone of chances and didn't scored the victory goal and NZ goalie became a hero. I was 5 out of 8 at that time and was pretty disappointed of how things were turning up...



9. Brazil - Cote d'Ivoire - 1, odds 1.70.. result 3-1. Easy win for Brazil, even tho the start wasn't the best one for the cariocas, but Kaka & Luis Fabiano solved the problem.



10. Portugal - Korea DPR - 1, odds 1.35.. result 7-0. I thought the odds were incredible for such a match and placed this bet. A no brainer watching the result.



11. Argentina, 1st place, Group B, odds 1.45.. result 1st place. Easy win, no worries. Argentina won 3 out of 3 games and finished first! Well done Maradona, we were wrong about your coaching abilities. You were the best football player in the world and now you can make history on the bench. GL



12. Slovenia - England - 2, odds 1.40.. result 0-1. Here I was robbed of another 15 €, cuz I placed this bet immediatly after the draw against USA... After the brits drew with Algeria the odds were like 1.55. Anyways, it was an easy win for the brits.



13. USA - Algeria - 1, odds 1.60.. result 1-0. Again, I was robbed of about 35 €, cuz I placed the bet before England vs Slovenia, immediatly after they drew against Slovenia... At this one I had to sweat, hard win for USA because they scored in the last minute, but watching the highlights they deserved the win, having endless opportunities and hitting the post. gg USA.



14. England, 1st place, Group C, odds 1.33.. result 2nd place. The retard brits missed some opportunities but hearing USA and Algeria were drawing they were happy with a 1-0 against Slovenia... Well, USA scored in the last minute and England finished 2nd having to face Germany in the last 16.. and they were punished.. 4-1... they got what deserved for ruining my bet...



15. Ghana - Germany - 2, odds 1.53.. result 0-1. Easy win, the germans proved they are serious people... but if they knew Australia will win against Serbia, they would have never scored... But first, they scored and then Australia scored...



16. Netherlands, 1st place, Group E, odds 1.65.. result 1st place. One of the safest bets I had. I love Netherlands for being underrated. I got some beautiful odds on their games which they won very very easy.



17. Brazil, 1st place, Group G, odds 1.60.. result 1st place. Same story as the Netherlands. One of the strongest teams in the world, won easily their group and I got some pretty nice odds on their games.



18. Chile - Spain - 2, odds 1.55.. result 1-2. An easy win for Spain after the 1st half. I placed this bet immediatly they lost against Switzerland, but I knew they are too good to be kicked out of the competition that soon.



19. Spain, 1st place, Group H, odds 1.83.. result 1st place. Nice bet, I put it after Chile won 1-0 against Switzerland and just before they were playing Honduras. I knew they will win both games and they will score more than the South Americans. gg Spain.



20. Argentina - Mexico - 1, odds 1.52.. result 3-1. I thought a lil bit about this, cuz last time there was overtime, but then I thought wtf, Messi can beat Mexico all by himself... well, I was wrong, it was Tevez. Congrats Argentina, hope to see you in the finals vs Brazil, Netherlands or Spain. It will be a crazy game!



21. Netherlands - Japan - 1, odds 1.44.. result 2-1. One of the easiest bets all along... The dutch won in their style, imposing their...

I hope Fedor Emelianenko dies in this second! Strikeforce is a joke, after Mousasi losing to a no name now Fedor does it in the lamest fashion possible. This was my last sports bet ever! I made Greece European Champions now I gave Fedor his first loss...

I'm gonna stick to poker cuz I'm damn good at it and the odds are much more fair!

Fuck Fedor!! Die bitch!! Come kick my ass if you got the balls!!

Record:

-day one: 1/3, -146$
-day two: 2/3, 144$

Day two:

Matt Wiman vs Mac Danzig it was a very short fight. Danzig started well, but he got caught into a guillotine, that he was escaping and then the referee made a stupid amateur mistake in stopping the fight. This bet should have been cancelled and the decision should have been a NC. Danzig wasn't out and Wiman was a pussy screaming at the referee "he's out! he's out!", in the reality he knew he was losing the submission attempt and he drained a lot of energy into this... Anyways, you gotta take these shits in consideration before placing a bet.

Pat Barry vs Mirko Filipovic it was a nice fight. As expected Cro Cop was the MMA fighter and Barry was the kickboxer. In the first round Cro Cop was rocked but he managed to recover and score some points in the future rounds. Barry seemed to be the faster and stronger striker but it looked like he didn't want to finish Cro Cop. Well, Cro Cop was winning a decision but near the end he attacked Barry with some good combinations and he got a lame submission that even the most idiot grappler could've escape from. No hooks, no nothing... It doesn't matter tho, the important thing is that the pick was right.

Robbie Lawler vs Renato Sobral actually this surprised me a little bit. Sobral couldn't or didn't want to put down Lawler and it turned to be a 3 stand up rounds brawl. Babalu got a decision because he had sharper punches and also he scored a lot with his leg kicks. Lawler, as expected tried to score a KO with his right but he didn't got the lucky punch like in his previous fight. Well, we got this too.

Day three:

There aren't many fights to choose from. I was to pick Wanderley over Sexyama but the brasilian got injured. Even tho I'm pretty sure he could kick all Japan's ass even injured the fight won't happen.. it will be Sexyama vs Leben, and the bookies didn't even notice... so lame... So my only pick for this will be:

Fedor Emelianenko vs Fabricio Verdum - 1 - 1.18 for 5 BI. So, I was betting 100$ each fight thus far, now I will bet 500$ on this only pick. It's a no brainer. You don't need to study this fight. Fedor will win in if it goes to the ground, if it stays up... he will win it. He can't put a spot in his record with a lose against Verdum. You can put your house, your car, your wife on this... Even if you need these odds for a 95% to score a profit, this is like a 99% and 1% chance that Bin Laden puts a bomb in the ring and it's a NC or Fedor slips in his way in the cage and injures his toe and then Verdum wins it by TKO.

That's all.

Posted by Shane Carwin on June 21, 2010 at 8:41am

A lot of people are still questioning my reasoning behind limiting my media access. If you read this article it would sound as if I am somehow failing at my duties as a fighter. Or according to the Zuffa "Talking Heads" I am not doing my part to sell this fight.

Lets talk about me selling this fight. I earned this fight. I was "given' my previous opportunity against Brock but this one I earned. I was asked to train for Cain and I began my camp. I was then told Cain is not the opponent I am being bumped up to Lesnar. Then I begin training for Lesnar to only have him pull out of the fight TWICE. His "miracle recovery" underway I was told I am going to have to face Frank Mir to earn the opportunity to face Brock (something I had already been given and taken away now twice). So for those of you confused by the fact that I somehow am fighting Brock because I talked crap or played some hype man you are wrong. I earned this fight and this opportunity. I have never turned down a fight, I have never told Zuffa no, I have and always do a good job and for them. Those that know me know that is who and what I am all about.

Those in the Media that want to chastise me have not even attempted to reach out through proper channels to get an interview. I never said I wasn't doing interviews or eliminating media. I said I was not taking any direct media request. I just do not have the time to spend "just 15 minutes" on the phone answering the same questions over and over. The time adds up and that time has to come from my other job, family or training. None of which are worth sacrificing more than the need to promote a fight. I have however accepted 100% of the interview request that Zuffa has presented me. I have taken my own initiative and went out for the entire month of May meeting fans traveling the US. My team has got me on the Jason Ellis Show (@ellismate) in which I did about a ten minute interview (on my own) to help promote the fight.

For those of you that make this possible (the fans) I have dedicated myself to be more connected with you than ever before. We have this site and other Social Communities that you know you can reach me and you will get a response. I really only care about you the fans. I am not trying to become Dan's best friend or some company guy that says bullsh%t to sell tickets and then says post fight "I was just kidding he is a warrior". I find the smack talk silly kids games. You fans are the backbone of the sport and I do not need some third party outlet reaching you when we can do this directly.

As for July 3rd, I am going to let my fist do the talking. I know #TeamCarwin will tune in to support me or be there at the MGM Grand. Everyday when the training has me near death, the two hour drive to and from the gyn seems endless or coming home to find my family in bed already, I tell myself that I owe my fans and supporters to push on through. That is what this is all about anyway. I don't care if MMA websites like me I just care that you the fan can connect with me.

As for the money side of things. I wont lie and say I wish I was getting a piece of this PPV. Of course I want that, so does every other fighter on the card that is not. I love to fight but I would love to fight for millions of dollars. Who wouldn't want to be paid millions of dollars for doing what they love (aside from that girl in Twilight)? But, I am not fighting for the money. If I was I would have checked out of this sport LONG ago. This is not the NFL and there is no league minimums. You eat what you kill and that is all. I have a great team making sure that I have plenty of game to hunt. I am not dependent upon fighting Brock to cash out. I am making more off of being a fighter than I could ever have imagined. I regularly make calls to my manager thanking him for "changing my families life". I have been blessed by MMA, most of the MMA media, the fans, and even the haters and for that I am forever grateful. For those of you reporting I am only making $50,000 for this fight and that is the reason behind my limiting media, please get your facts right it is $80,000 ($40 to show and $40 to win) plus you have to factor in my generous sponsors (THANKS) and the KO and FOTN bonus that will be awarded to me on July 3rd. I would have done it for less, I love competing and testing myself.

I do not know if I have enough time in the sport to ever be the next "Brock". This is something I am okay with. I just want to be the very best ME I can be. I want to make sure you can reach me and we enjoy this journey together. I am not a superstar just a guy chasing his dream. I am happy with that because I know many that are not in the chase anymore. They speak of their dreams in the past tense, for me I am seeing a future filled with the best fans and fellow athletes anyone could ever hope for.

I am grateful to even be here. I have worked hard my entire life and I do not know any other way. There are no short cuts, I can't throw hundreds of thousands of dollars at trainers and training partners and expect to win. Winning for me is a lifetime of work. I was taught at a very young age that you have to work for whatever you want in life. I am doing that, I have put in the time and I deserve to be fighting for this belt. I know the more I put into it, the harder I work I more chance I have of having my hand raised at the end of the fight.

I hope Brock is ready for a war. I have prepared myself for the very best Brock Lesnar and I hope that is who shows up.

Have you guys seen this Collapse documentary: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1503769 ??

What are your thoughts on this? Do you think this old guy is fos or is he for real? Are we all gonna starv in 10 years?

Ok, so my first picks weren't that good... Maybe I should have informed myself a lil bit more about the fights, it was like rush decision in picking those matches that on paper seemed very good picks. Looking back at the matches I wouldn't pick the 2 again...

Lets analyze were I was wrong:

Sanchez vs Hathaway was an ok pick. I never thought Sanchez couldn't take down Hathaway but the brit seemed so strong from the begining and after kneeing Sanchez in the face he broke "the nightmare" heart (lol)... In conclusion the brit got lucky in slowing down Sanchez with that knee, making Diego having second thoughts when trying a takedown, but Hathaway had also the reach, so he won the stand up, and stronger than Diego. Also Diego fought at Lightweights in the last couple of fights and moving up in weight is not that simple (even fi you did it before). If Diego would have got the first takedown and unleashed some ground and pound the story of the fight would have been another one.

Amir vs Kim, I wouldn't put this match again in a thousand years... I underestimated the korean, and overrated Amir... Amir showed some nice skills in the TUF by submitting CB Dollaway but he didn't do that well in his UFC debut (even tho the stoppage was controversial). Also he got two wins against two weaker opponents that couldn't and didn't even try to get him down. If this fight would have been a kickboxing fight the american would've win, but in MMA, usually when a striker faces a wrestler, the second one wins it. Amir has a good jiu-jitsu but he showed only his guard, actually this fight was 15 mins of the korean laying down on Amir.

How to bet:
Betting is similar to poker, it's a long run... Even if you lose a couple of bets, the profit will come if you make solid picks. Usually you should bet the same amount on each bet, only singles, like 1 BI from you actual stake in poker and wait for a profit after a lot of bets... you will make a profit after 10-20 bets, if you're expecting to get all the bets you put, you are wrong, it never happens! If you get all of them in the begining it's like you have won the first MTT you played, which is a lie for your poker skills (everyone knows MTTs are donkaments and the luckiest guys win them, cuz you have to win a lot of flips to get to the final table).

The picks:
Having all this said, I'm gonna try to pick a few fights for the next MMA events. I know nobody will bet them and I don't really care, I just wanna see if I get these pick. I, myself won't put them cuz I usually jinx bets and fighters. This time I will try to get some nice odds:

Matt Wiman vs Mac Danzig - 2 - 1.87
Once again I pick a TUF winner because I think he is better on the ground and he also has a better stand up. But, Wiman is bigger and stronger, which means Danzig is faster. As usual the lightweight fights are entertaining and it will be a very interesting fight. Prolly it will go to a decision, with a lot of exchanges and scrambles on the ground, if it will be a KO then Wiman will win it, if it will be a submission then Danzig will take it. I think Danzig will win a 29-28 decision because he is the more technical fighter and will score more with his punches and his better ground. On paper Danzig is the more experienced fighter (19-7) even though he has a 2-3 record in the UFC, he had also fought in Pride once, losing to Sakurai and once in WEC losing to Kurt Pellegrino. Wiman has a record of 11-5 (5-3 in the UFC), so the match is well-balanced in this aspect. Both fighters won against Justin Buchholz, Danzig by decision (but he was very close of getting the rear naked choke) and Wiman by submission. Both lost vs Jim Miller by decision. Don't get fooled by Danzig record in the UFC, he lost against 3 tough opponents (Guida, Jim Miller and Neer), Wiman lost against Spencer Fisher, Jim Miller and Sam Stout.. pretty much the same. They are well-matched and it will be a close one.

Pat Barry vs Mirko Filipovic - 2 - 2.24
The odds on this are awesome. The bookmakers give Barry these odds cuz they think he is the better striker but he is facing a K1 level kickboxer in Mirco Cro Cop. The more interesting thing is that Cro Cop is the more complete MMA fighter. Well, even tho the gold days seem to be gone for Cro Cop he is still a world class striker and he has a good defensive ground game. Also he can score takedowns and lay on people... Barry seems to be an unidimensional fighter, but his striking technique seems to be rudimentary. Yeah, he is strong indeed but Cro Cop has the sharper srtikes. And for the first time in the UFC he will have the reach and he will be the taller and prolly the bigger fighter in this fight. And also, for the first time he can set up the left kick to the head and not be afraid if he will be taken down. I go with Cro Cop for the old days and for the fantastic odds! It's better than a flip, if Cro Cop wins this 5 out of 10 you make half of the bet you put!

Robbie Lawler vs Renato Sobral - 2 - 2.20
The last but not the least. The classical striker vs grappler match. I don't get why the odds are so in favor of Lawler, there is no injury for Sobral, Lawler didn't learn the ground game over night, so what's the catch... Sobral is coming with a 5-1 record after leaving the UFC, losing only against Mousasi, but who is winning against him?? He is also the bigger and more experienced fighter. Lawler is coming after a win against Melvin Manhoef and a loss vs Schields... Lawler is overrated, so I'm going with the bjj guy! It's going to the ground and the brasilian will finish Lawler in no time..

These 3 picks are tougher ones but if let's say you get 1 out of 3 (let's say the last) you make 20$ if you bet 100$ each. If you get 2 out of 3, let say the smaller ones you made 300$... As a thought I think Danzig vs Wiman is a 6 out of 10, Cro Cop vs Barry aswell and Sobral vs Lawler is a 9 out of 10 IMO.. So the edge is very good for me.

Record:

-day one: 1/3, -146$

I've seen ultrasPNT topic about soccer betting tips so I thought how about I should give some about the UFC. Today it will be UFC 114 and I've picked 3 bets to place:

1. Diego Sanchez vs John Hathaway - 1.50

I think the brit is overrated. Diego Sanchez is too experienced for the young brit. I think Sanchez will win an unanimous decision on this, he has too much experience, heart and a good ground/stand up to get another W at the welterweights.

2. Michael Bisping vs Dan Miller - 1.54

Miller is a good fighter, but Bisping needs to win because he already lost against Wanderlei. Also Bisping lost only against Rashad, Henderson and Wanderley so I don't think he can lose against a no name like Dan Miller. Miller lost his last two against Maia and Chael Sonnen, because these two are better than him on the ground and Bisping is not. But man, he got owned standing up by Maia, which means he will be owned by the brit also. If it goes to distance the brit will win cuz the UFC needs Bisping up there, in the contender spots...

3. Amir Sadollah vs Dong Hyun Kim - 1.80

The korean is over rated. The dude has a record of 12-0-1, 1 NC, but he has wins only against no names.. Amir won the ultimate fighter and he seems a very nice prospect for the UFC, he has a very nice Muai Thai, with vicious leg kicks and good submissions. I don't really know Dong, but he lost against Karo (fight declared a NC because Karo tested positive) and Karo is out of shape for a very looong time...

So guys, go put some bets on these 3 picks! You degen gamblers!!

UFC 112 was a fiasco.. BJ Penn proved once again he is a lazy mother fucker and he lost an unanimous decision against... FRANKIE EDGAR... c'mon man... how can you get your face pawned like that against such an opponent... he's 5'... he's prolly weighting 40 pounds and you get your ass kicked by a midget??? wtf???

Also Anderson Silva is becoming borring... he's obv the best in his weight class but he's making too much fun of his opponents... and when he's getting tired he's running in the ring... I understand he likes to fight safe and not getting his face touched but meh... we wanna see a show, we wait for 3-4 months for him to step in the cage and then he circles 3 whole rounds...

GSP is also borring with his takedown and he's not being able to finish anymore, laying down on people for 5 rounds... Machida put on a lousy show against Shogun... in the HW only Carwin seems a finisher, but he is like a grizzly bear, with his brute force and lame technique... Cain Velasquez is a prospect but I wanna see him fight a guy in top form, not an old Nog and a guy with no ground like Kongo...

It seems like the UFC is becoming borring so I'm gonna stick to Strikeforce.. Fedor, Overeem, Mousassi or Hendo aren't that borring to watch...

When I say flaviusO run:

Hero (BB): $100.00
CO: $236.65
BTN: $100.00
SB: $190.15

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with A Q
2 folds, SB raises to $2, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $7

Flop: ($18.00) A K 7 (2 players)
SB bets $9.00, Hero raises to $24.50, SB calls $15.50

Turn: ($67.00) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $17.00, Hero raises to $66.50, SB calls $49.50

River: ($200.00) T (2 players)

Final Pot: $200.00
Hero shows A Q
SB shows J 2
SB wins $198.00
(Rake: $2.00)