Firstly, I know I have some vid thread comments to answer, so Koerperkarle, Kitsune101 etc I will get to them, it's just that I tend to write proper essay answers rather than just write a few one liners, and that takes more time. Hopefully today.
Secondly, after a good first month of the year, biggest month in around 15 months actually, I'm on a bit of a downswing this month. There's lots of runbad breakers that I preach, but one I've found most effective is to write a blog like this stating that I'm going to review all the big and otherwise interesting hands I'm about to play. So, to be continued ...............
God knows what new potential members coming to leggo and seeing the blog page right now would think, and so I figure this place could use a poker blog. I've been trying to attain 50 BIs on Stars to move back to 400nl, but what with withdrawals, runbad, and bad play arising (I think) from general staleness, I've lost patience and so I'm about to play a 6 table 400nl.
I was last there Novemeberish time I think, and the clinching hand knocking me back down was 200bbs going in PF my KK VS Aaron's AK. He got there on the river, I kicked my elephant, and later that week he posted a blog about how hot he was running!
So yeah anyway going to play for an hour, then edit this post with all big and interesting hands here for analysis. Yes I could write this afterwards but this stops me knocking it on the head should it all go wrong and I be in a terrible mood.
-- to be continued --
Ok I stopped after 40 minutes. I was up $500 and felt a bit tilted with some late hands. Not all these hands are exciting, I just saved them whenever there was something I thought a little interesting or I struggle with or any other thoughts:
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG No3putts ($406) CO Nahar ($158.90)
BTN Amoroso5 ($400)
SB n3kt ($584.30) BB grogheadflow ($422.90)
Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) grogheadflow is BB 9 9 1 fold, Nahar raises to $10, 2 folds, grogheadflow calls $6
Flop: A 3 8 ($22, 2 players)
grogheadflow checks, Nahar bets $12, grogheadflow calls $12
Turn: K ($46, 2 players)
grogheadflow checks, Nahar checks
River: 9 ($46, 2 players) grogheadflow bets $32, Nahar raises to $64, grogheadflow goes all-in $400.90, Nahar folds
Final Pot:$510.90
grogheadflow wins $508.90 (net +$86)
Nahar lost $86
OK I saved this just because I think it's a huge autopilot leak of mine to check nuts on the river a lot. I'm usually like weee protect my weak range in this spot, win more when he bets and I crai, etc. the truth is though to a bet check bet line, it's very rarely a bluff. It's more often weak value, from which I extract money through betting anyway. Ah, but what about when he calls your crai? Well, they don't call it very often. So yeah, bet because there's no bluffs to maximise from, you charge those weak hands that might check behind, you protect your 'cc flop, lead river as bluff' lines, and the gains made through the CR are small as it's rarely called by worse.
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) grogheadflow is BTN 10 10 3 folds, grogheadflow raises to $10, n3kt raises to $32, DuTTiFruTTi9 raises to $68, grogheadflow folds, n3kt folds
Final Pot:$110
DuTTiFruTTi9 wins $110 (net +$42)
grogheadflow lost $10
n3kt lost $32
Rather stuck here, which just shows what a sick play the small cold 4bet is given I'm at the top of my range for stealing in this spot. I *think* duti is leggo coach joinmystack so obviously a sicko. Problem- when I stove his range, I only need a few cold bluffs in his range to make this a call. But then NT3K might still be involved. Having said that, there's obviously quite a few bluffs in his range and I could probably call in terms of raw equity anyway. But then, how is my hand perceived exactly? And the playability element, overcards are going to come on the flop like always. Shove? Is terrible risk reward wise to the small 4bet. 4bet fold to $105? Maybe that's the one, if called then some playability, probably a ton of folds, and NT3K should fold JJ down and maybe AK. Hmmmm, I shrugged and folded.
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Not too many stats on this guy (which incidentally is extremely ironic, given this was the guy who started the 2p2 shitstorm about me using datamined HHs! but I digress). But yeah we all know this spot, and without more knowledge a bit of a guessing game. I guess I need crEV to tell me what to do. My thinking though is like, ok say he has bluffs half the time and value half the time, and then on the river he'll shove bluffs half the time and check the other half, then his river shoves are 3/4 value. His quick timing on the turn I think gives a clue that a river bet is also imminent, and his bluffs still have equity yada yada. Plus my perceived range smashes the queen high board. I think fold turn is best but I haven't done the analysis justice probably.
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Ok I've included this hand just because it started me thinking about 'the curve'. So much of what we do in poker we take for granted, but originally all our default plays were truly sick because they exploited the population as a whole in such a palpable way you could just sit there, click buttons and count the zeros.
Let's start with the cbet. One day, some math(s) sicko realised we only make a pair 1/3 times. In conjunction with the tendency for players to fold no pair on the flop as the PF caller, this fact made it profitable to make a flop bet with any 2 cards after raising PF and win the pot around 66% of the time on average. The original Mr Cbettor, aka Dan Harrington...
This is Ed Balls. He's a member of the opposition Labour Party front bench. Every Wednesday at Prime Minister's questions time, he sits opposite and does this flat-lining gesture all the while David Cameron speaks. It really winds him up and is quite funny.
Checking my monthly graph today, I could see this gesture staring back at me. It didn't wind me up though! Checking my zillion leggo and private blogs, to my credit I can't find a single time I've whined about runbad. Every losing or breakeven stretch is an opportunity to improve.
At the risk of coming across all Donald Rumsfield, in poker knowledge there are known knowns, known unknowns, and then unknown unknowns. So correct 3betting strategy VS a 90% folder is a known known. Optimal strategy VS a reg minraising IP a lot is a known unknown. I like known unknowns, I can work on them and turn them into known knowns.
Of late, many more unknown unknowns have become known unknowns. So in English, I'm becoming so much more aware of how little I know about much more stuff!
Take this board:
Flop: ($17.40) 9 4 Q (2 Players)
18% UTG+1 raiser cbets this board. We're on the button. He cbets 65%, but higher on this board, and we believe it to be a semi depolarised range where 9x gets cbet, but QT, JJ and TT might check. What % of his range is:
Sets?
TPTK?
TPTK?
2nd pair?
3rd pair? (I'll group all ~77 type hands here)
OESD?
Overpair?
Air?
I honestly don't know. I can count combos OK in the moment, but counting combos wouldn't answer the above questions without counting all the relevant combos and doing some super fast maths. There just isn't enough time, and I feel like I should be able to give a very good instinctive answer based on work I've done when not playing. I bet Sauce knows, and I know a bot knows.
So by a very rough estimate, here's his cbetting range. 17.6% ......... I'm aware that i've taken the raw stove % and K9s is out but T9s should be in etc, but anyway.
So for a start, the above is actually new information for me. Did I know that typically on this board VS this range he has air ~ 40% of the time ? No I did not.
So, I might be thinking of a bluff raise. We don't rep a ton, but villain is on 16 tables and is slightly risk averse. Should I bluff raise? Should I keep firing if he flats? I'm going to assume for the sake of this that all nuts flats and he never 3bets.
Will fold to a raise: Air+3rd pair + 2nd pair = 57.96%
Will flat a raise and fold to future action: oesd + half of TPWK = 8.52%
Will flat a raise and call future streets: TPTK+half TPWK + overpair + sets = 33.52%
So obviously very inexact, but already I'm starting to get a better feel of this spot. As I've already said, I think Sauce probably knows this stuff. A bot knows this stuff. Someone like D2TheMFI knows this stuff. I don't know this stuff, I haven't looked at it enough. You probably don't know either.
So in summary, as edges are getting smaller I think the future for me getting better lies in getting this type of technical knowledge seared into my brain. All that crEV stuff that D2 has videos on really interests me. Of late I've been much better at adjusting individually to players ....... getting reads on certain ranges and then inferring weaker and stronger parts of said range based on these reads. To properly act on them though, I need all this stuff.
Yeh, so that's me going forward anyway. Time to get rich!
A thought stuck me the other day with regards that elusive thing called consistency. Hull City were playing, and we've been enjoying a pretty decent run of winning games playing a style of football where we pas the ball around in an eye pleasing fashion. At the level at which we play, the more common style is play much more direct. The direct style is one I supposed I'd describe as a 'levelling' style, ie you're never going to be the best team in the league playing it, but it does stop a lot of silly mistakes that make you the worst side in the league. If you don't have the players to take the higher variance route of passing the ball around, then knock it up to the big man up front and you can't go far wrong.
We lose two games on the bounce, and suddenly posters in forums are saying things like 'we need to stop fucking about with the ball so much, we need to learn when to hit it long' etc etc. This viewpoint is pervasive enough that there's bound to have been managers out there who've thought exactly the same thing and made drastic changes to a proven successful formula based on a few short term results. For me, I think the ability to learn not to completely overhaul things based on a small sample is something that only comes with experience.
Young football players are notoriously inconsistent. Being young, they start off like a house on fire. One or two bad performances though and confidence can be shot to pieces. During this time they'll be over analysing things, wondering if they've been 'found out', worried that maybe they were lucky to play so well in their first 11 or so games.
Experienced players have their tried and tested playing style. Someone like Frank Lampard is not going to change up after a few mediocre performances. He'll keep doing the same stuff and eventually things will turn around. He knows this.
I have been massively guilty of changing up all the time throughout my whole poker 'career'. A style that's given me a month of winning goes the window with 3 bad sessions.......
I made a huge leap though around a month ago. I'd been playing for 7 or so days, doing the same things that I'd done the 4 weeks before that netted me a decent amount 4 tabling 200nl. Over these 7 days I broke even and basically nothing seemed to be going right.
For the first time though I just kept plugging away doing the exact same thing. I timed on my decisions, made notes, inferred reads, asked questions, planned some adjustments, and then pressed the corresponding button. Q another heater. After 3 years playing poker full time, I've finally made the jump in experience that tells me not to worry.
So after a breakeven start to December that's where I am again today. I just need to keep doing the right things, and I feel a million times stronger mentally for knowing that if I'm still breakeven in 7 days or so then that's absolutely fine.
I've more videos coming out. Hence the blogpost. So people know/ remember who I am !
I've been vegetarian probably around 2 years. I won't go into the reasons, I've personally found talking about them makes non-vegetarians dig their heels in and thus is counter productive to the whole cause. But it's the usual moral reasons anyway.
Now, going vegetarian I was obviously prepared to go without chicken curry, spaghetti bolognese etc, all my old favourites. I then discovered some foods containing meat that might make you raise an eyebrow. Any sort of jelly. Random sponge deserts. Guinness!
What I can't fathom is the breaking news that of all things, WEETABIX somehow manages to incorporate elements of animal corpse. Like, how??, why ?? It's literally one of the most tasteless things in the world, but.... piled high with sugar remained one of the few things I was able to eat and enjoy (never been big on actual vegetables). Now it's been taken away from me, because presumably no-one at Nestle has the wit or ingenuity to create soap bar shaped chunks of wheat without lazily throwing in some bits of animal. #Sigh.
On this subject, I didn't realise it for a long time, but going vegetarian dramatically affected my poker performance and results. Around a year ago I started to refer to it as 'light headedness', but that's a little inexact. It was basically a sort of disconnect from everything that was going on. Didn't affect my real life too much, (although I was very short of energy), but poker-wise it was an absolute disaster.
Couldn't process information, couldn't concentrate, had no 'feel' for anything.
It got to the point that I could literally only play my A-C game for the first 50 or so minutes immediately after waking up. After that, I had to sleep again before I could play. Occasionally of course I would get frustrated at putting in so little hands, play when light headed (Z game always), and drop 10 BIs. In the past year or so I got better at not playing when in this state, but the occasional relapses have been very costly.
Anyway, to cut a long story short I changed my diet and also found what I can only call a wonder vitamin. B12 is basically only found in meat, and is super important for converting food into energy, alertness and concentration. The past week I've started overdosing on it. Light headedness has gone !
This is very exciting for me, it means I'll actually be able to put in 2-3 meaningful and high performance sessions per day. Today I played 4500 hands, all of which I'd basically grade as A game.
So, we'll see how it goes........ poker results are basically 'technical knowledge' X 'performance'. For good or bad I rate my technical knowledge really highly, and it's been super frustrating for me not to be making very consistent 5 figures every month because of the 2nd part of that equation.......
Some of you may have noticed I've been making more videos lately. I keep trying to think of new ideas to keep the videos fresh. As well as the HU series with Bobbo, I've a directed learning video on SSNL SB 3betting that's uploaded and up sometime soon. If anyone has any ideas for creative or interesting videos then please let me know. For some reason I always feel a little guilty these days putting out a standard pause 'n record or live video.
One idea I've had is to do a leakfinder style thing, but with the leakfindee also in on the video talking. This way, it'd basically be a video of a coaching session. Then if people like it, I might start coaching again. I think interactivity in videos is important. Monologues are all well and good, but it's good to have another person there posing hypotheticals or asking questions or challenging what the producer is saying.
So, if any member up to say 100nl is interested in being the guinea pig for the above idea, then please get in touch explaining your background etc and I'll pick on the basis of that. Ideally fairly talky chatty speaky types.
Having booked a condo 5 minutes walk from the Rio for a whole month, I'm leaving this god forsaken desert after only 2 weeks. Thus, it will be empty for those dates in the blog title.
If anyone would like to stay for free, then first come first served u can have both the keys. Place has 3 bedrooms, a decent sized living room, shared swimming pool, and a malfunctioning aircon system.
I'm never coming abroad without actual cash in my pocket ever again, I never seem to learn my lesson though. Despiter telling them in advance my bank have put all kind of blocks on any meaningful transaction, meaning days of withdrawing $300 max leads to my first 2-5 session with $700.
Session result, won $350...
Hand 1: 4 limpers, I complete sb with A2dd. Flop KT3dd. I lead 20 into 25. 4 callers. Turn Qd, I lead 85 into 105, old guy makes it 100 on top. Hmm, call or 3bet? I don't wanna see river action killers, and no1s raise folding a flush surely? I make it another 100, he snap folds 'your flush is than kine'.
I think turn is a mistake then.... With 3 flop callers, there's likely another flush draw out there, and check raise applies less leverage than bet 3 bet, allowing me to get his whole stack potentially. Also, just calling his flop raise as played is superior if he's ever raise folding a flush, as actually only ~25% of cards are action killers and he'd likely bet his weaker flush again. So, not happy.
Hand 2: lady raises utg+1 4x, I call mp AJo. She raised a few times so happy enough. 2 more callers with very high vpips. Flop 944r, lady checks...... With 80 in there and weak ranges behind me I decide I can make a cheapish steal. 30 into 80. Both dudes fold, lady check calls. Turn is K. Although she might be check calling AK on the flop, mid PPs are more likely and I can apply a lot of leverage hewre with a street yet to play. Bet 100 into 130 she tank fold. Win!
It's 5.30 am, very jet lagged still, just woke up so going to play now for a few hours before England play at 8.45am. Crown and anchor pub if anyone's interested.....
Before I get into the meat of this post, I'd just like to say I recorded a 3 part series the other day, all in one go. Lesson learned, Camtasia obviously lost very word I'd spoken. I then composed myself the day after, and re-recorded just an hour this time. Same result...... #onStrike
I'm going to Vegas on Wednesday. This is my 4th time, but the 1st that I'm certain I'm actually going to play a decent amount of live poker. I've dabbled a little every year of course, usually very drunk, very hungover, or both. I probably took it the most seriously last year, but I sulked off early after a few losing sessions and made some very live-specific mistakes.
I've played a few live sessions since and improved a lot, but I think getting down the obvious lessons learned and stuff is going to be of benefit........
1) Patience is a virtue, and indeed a skill.
I see this as a real important mindset leap to make. Too often you hear, 'well for sure I'm the best player at the table, but I get a little bored and make silly squeezes and stuff, I'd definitely win if only I could be a little more patient'. The simple remedy to this ludicrous frame of mind is remind yourself that patience in this arena is as much a part of the 'skill of poker' as any edge in technical knowledge we undoubtedly have on most players at the table.
If you're playing 5-10 live, and your name's Phil Galfond, but playing 50% of hands, calling 6x 3bets OOP with KQo, and simply unable to resist raising 64s UTG, then you're just not the best player at the table, despite what you might tell yourself.
2) Same as 1, but everything else
The point about not separating all the non technical stuff from the 'skill of poker' stands for a ton of stuff. I think patience is the most important, but being sober, awake, paying attention, not giving too much away about yourself (I always get the 'you play online?' Q) all obviously matters a great deal too. Basically have some pride in getting this stuff right and don't kid yourself that knowing what a range merge is makes you the bee's knees when you're getting so much basic poker stuff plain wrong.
3) Technical Stuff
Live Tells
I've come to see this as a pretty big deal, and hugely underrated by the majority of online players. I think the biggest and bestest live tell is the 'relaxed and excited' tell. I've a ton of examples, but I guess the recent HSP where FelixDuck felts QQ on T52r or something VS a fishy dude's set (with Bobbo's money ). What I couldn't comprehend about felting this hand, other than the obvious action, was the guy sitting there literally BUZZING. He was high as a kite, leaning forward (an important one), couldn't take the smile off his face. He just couldn't be loving life in that moment any more, and it was all clearly visible.
Faking this stuff is HARD. When big pots get going, only a very skilled dude is going to be able to sit there without a hand, leaning forward, chatting and joking and generally on cloud 9. This stuff matters!
Hello Leggo! I feel like writing, and since I'm 7 days into using Twitter and I STILL don't understand what it's for, what all the #####s mean, or have anyone reading my tweets so far as I know, I'm going to write here.
I don't even think the above paragraph would've fitted into a 'tweet'. That tilts me too.
So poker, this year, I have my mojo back. I moved to Stars at the start of January and I'm slowly getting used to the higher quality of regs present there (unarguably IMO) whilst also getting good at 12 tabling. I'm at the point now where a dozen tables actually feels like a breeze, but short of a 30" monitor I'm stuck at my limit for the time being.
First half 200nl, then 400nl where I currently reside.
So yeah this is an improvement on 2010. While not setting the world alight 2009 style, I'm happy enough as I feel a ton of improvement to come. I've basically spewed a huge ton getting used to 12 tabling, and at times I've completely lost the plot with tilty sessions that will, if I have any pride at all, be soon completely eradicated.
Also, while I put a lot of my improvement down to moving back towards an instinctive style of play, there have been too many spots where I've over-rode my instinct for the wrong reasons. Like, bleh I squeeze JJ and face a min 4bet from a nit, but I'm stuck and shove anyway. Or I wanna call 200bbs with bottom pair but I'm finishing my session and feel like banking the win. All stuff that, of course, should carry no weight in decision making.
What else......... there's a Stars pro, Pappe Ruk. Now you would think that being a sponsored pro would encumber the recipient with a certain sense of responsibility towards the Stars brand, meaning acting courteously and professionally towards other players, and certainly curbing any CAPITALS ZOMG UR TERRIBLE tendencies if you have them.
Well this guy doesn't, and he called me terrible (in dutch no less, and then in English). And then I got the chance to give him the treatment. The sugary, sweet treatment. Oh and he does this a lot =) hence my spaz chatting of it.
This hand has created an uncomfortable dynamic though. Namely, that happiness EV dictates I can't let him get even!
Lucky escape this one.
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG Gogol's Nose ($994.70) UTG+1 Pappe_Ruk ($414.40)
CO chirpy11 ($504) BTN txeriff00 ($278.50)
SB Joeik ($438.80) BB GROG ($400)
Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) GROG is BB K A 1 fold, Pappe_Ruk raises to $12, 1 fold, txeriff00 calls $12, 1 fold, GROG raises to $40, Pappe_Ruk raises to $88, txeriff00 calls $76, GROG calls $48
Final Pot:$647
Pappe_Ruk shows
A A
txeriff00 shows
8 7
Pappe_Ruk wins $644 (net +$365.50)
txeriff00 lost $278.50
GROG lost $88
Semi controversial topic this next one. Basically, Leggo has a policy of not allowing UB videos. I'd be willing to make lots of vids on that site seeing how I don't play there any more, but I know plenty of members do and might appreciate them. If anyone wants Leggo to reverse this policy, I guess say so in the requests thread and maybe it might change. I can certainly see why Aaron and Matt might see it as a controversy too far though, and indeed plenty of members might be hugely opposed. Who knows, just though I'd throw it out there.
So the above one I was happy with, but the more I look at it the more I think it's a call a lot of decent regs would make on their A game. Too wide a PF range to be weighted towards pairs, not good enough to shove AA/QQ, etc.
$1/$2 Ante $0.40 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Final Pot:$1,085.95
GROG shows
A 6
Bikstik8585 shows
Q A
GROG wins $1,055.20 (net +$528.40)
Bikstik8585 collects $27.75 (net -$526.80)
This one was kinda weird, I basically played it bad until the river in retrospect as I didn't think the guy would 'bluff' the turn with Ace-hi, but him being unable to value bet a ton of stuff this uber deep and a super wide PF range and my small floatable CR and timing had my call finger really itching.
What else. I'm trying to book a Vegas house. Something like 3 bedrooms, less than 6 miles from the strip. I've left it too late again and everythings booked. If anyone knows of one, please let me know!
9
3
($46, 2 players)
#onStrike
). What I couldn't comprehend about felting this hand, other than the obvious action, was the guy sitting there literally BUZZING. He was high as a kite, leaning forward (an important one), couldn't take the smile off his face. He just couldn't be loving life in that moment any more, and it was all clearly visible.