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Jan
19
2010
100K Hands of 400NL Update
Posted in Poker | View Comments (14)
 

In my last blog, I decided to play 100k hands of 400NL 6max before I do anything else this year. Kind of like a reaffirment that I win somewhere over 5BB/100....

And.

It's been a slow start.



The EV thing should sort itself over 100k hands... I mean, if it didn't, then that would mean that the whole theory of continuous probability has just been a brutal myth all along. Could you actually imagine if those guys who play roulette and write down each number as it comes so they can decipher patterns had just been wasting their time?

My friend Hirsty actually believes in the above, or has done at some point. On various visits to the casino he's either ferverently believed that 7 reds = next is black, and then 7 reds = next one MUST be red again. At first I laughed along... but no, he believes it.

Oh and I know I said I was going to talk about poker more in this blog, but.... I suddenly realised why people don't. Basically, I think all the regs know my SN now, and rather than say 'Im abusing my image by nitting it up', or 'I decided to fuck nitting it up, and let them worry about me' (it's probably one of the two) it's probably best I say nothing. At least until my 100k hands are over and I disappear to Party or somewhere.

I guess you can see some random spew for your entertainment, villain is Leggo member Bazclef. Nice hand....

Party, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $731.60
CO: $1,314.46
BTN: $1,027.10
SB: $467.90
Hero (BB): $1,549.30

Pre-Flop: 6 6 dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, BTN raises to $12, SB calls $10, Hero raises to $48, BTN calls $36, SB calls $36

Flop: ($144) 2 J 5 (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $67, BTN calls $67, SB folds

Turn: ($278) K (2 Players)
Hero bets $219, BTN calls $219

River: ($716) 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $1,215.30 and is All-In, BTN calls $693.10 and is All-In

Results: $2,102.20 Pot
BTN showed J Q and WON $2,099.20 (+$1,072.10 NET)
Hero showed 6 6 and WON $522.20 (-$500.90 NET)

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Comments 14 Email Blog Entry  
Comments
01-19-2010
K_Man is offline K_Man
Hull signing Zaki doesn't even get a mention?

I'm calling it now, he stays 9 seasons and becomes known as 'The Hullk'.
01-19-2010
beatis is offline beatis
i wish the ev thing should sort itself out. unfortunately, the most likely outcome for the 100k hand sample that started 12710 hands ago is ~$6232 below expectation, and is as likely to be lower as it is to be higher.

probability sucks for the unlucky.
01-19-2010
grogheadflow is offline grogheadflow
grogheadflow's Avatar
If Zaki stays 9 games I'll be ecstatic. Phil Brown called him a 'complex' character today... which is of course another word for complete tool. He's just what we need though (with no respect intended to USA superstar Jose Altidore) (that wasn't a mistype).
01-19-2010
freeeeeeedom is offline freeeeeeedom
grog what's your name on party?
01-19-2010
Isura is offline Isura
Don't think that's a bad bluff
01-19-2010
JimmyRare is offline JimmyRare
Has to be a losing play to call all the way with QJ there, if not, poker is lotto. I assume you shove for value with AK here too?
01-19-2010
grogheadflow is offline grogheadflow
grogheadflow's Avatar
Jimmy course I shove AK, prolly KQ, maybe QQ and maybe AJ.... however, it's not a lotto it's about frequencies..... gameflow wise it was probably a bad time to bluff given how I'd been playing the previous 45 minutes or so
01-19-2010
The_End is offline The_End
I can tell you that the ev differences can still be brutal after a 100k hands. Better hope it fixes itself (or at least make enough monnies regardless so its a relatively low amount) over 500k hands.

Care to explain why you squeeze the 66? I'd never squeeze and always flat there. I don't think it's really spewy postflop though, the board just runs out in a certain way.
01-19-2010
Bazclef is offline Bazclef
Bazclef's Avatar
Ty dude, I've been looking back at this hand a bit...

Grog had been squeezing a huge amount leading up to the hand as it was a real profitable spot. So I put grog's squeeze % pre at something ridic like 30-40%. Cbet 100%, barrel high% and once I call turn I have to call any non-diamond river. There's no other way I can play the hand. A diamond river would have been interesting.
01-19-2010
klink- is offline klink-
calling with 66 seems much much better than squeezing, especially deep oop.
01-19-2010
grogheadflow is offline grogheadflow
grogheadflow's Avatar
Klink/ The End, of course flatting is super standard. But calling, missing most of the time, and check-folding doesn't entirely appeal (give me the initiative any day yo). And anyway, if we all played the same, no-one would make any money

Baz I wish there was more to the call than just contextless postflop stats. NH anyway.
01-19-2010
Bazclef is offline Bazclef
Bazclef's Avatar
They're not stats lol, they're what I perceived your frequencies to be in this situation.
01-19-2010
shadowuk is offline shadowuk
That HIrsty sounds like a right jackass!
02-12-2010
shootaa is offline shootaa
Seems like a good call, solid.
 
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