God knows what new potential members coming to leggo and seeing the blog page right now would think, and so I figure this place could use a poker blog. I've been trying to attain 50 BIs on Stars to move back to 400nl, but what with withdrawals, runbad, and bad play arising (I think) from general staleness, I've lost patience and so I'm about to play a 6 table 400nl.

I was last there Novemeberish time I think, and the clinching hand knocking me back down was 200bbs going in PF my KK VS Aaron's AK. He got there on the river, I kicked my elephant, and later that week he posted a blog about how hot he was running!

So yeah anyway going to play for an hour, then edit this post with all big and interesting hands here for analysis. Yes I could write this afterwards but this stops me knocking it on the head should it all go wrong and I be in a terrible mood.

-- to be continued --

Ok I stopped after 40 minutes. I was up $500 and felt a bit tilted with some late hands. Not all these hands are exciting, I just saved them whenever there was something I thought a little interesting or I struggle with or any other thoughts:

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG No3putts ($406)
CO Nahar ($158.90)
BTN Amoroso5 ($400)
SB n3kt ($584.30)
BB grogheadflow ($422.90)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) grogheadflow is BB 9 9
1 fold, Nahar raises to $10, 2 folds, grogheadflow calls $6

Flop: A 3 8 ($22, 2 players)
grogheadflow checks, Nahar bets $12, grogheadflow calls $12

Turn: K ($46, 2 players)
grogheadflow checks, Nahar checks

River: 9 ($46, 2 players)
grogheadflow bets $32, Nahar raises to $64, grogheadflow goes all-in $400.90, Nahar folds

Final Pot: $510.90

grogheadflow wins $508.90 (net +$86)

Nahar lost $86


OK I saved this just because I think it's a huge autopilot leak of mine to check nuts on the river a lot. I'm usually like weee protect my weak range in this spot, win more when he bets and I crai, etc. the truth is though to a bet check bet line, it's very rarely a bluff. It's more often weak value, from which I extract money through betting anyway. Ah, but what about when he calls your crai? Well, they don't call it very often. So yeah, bet because there's no bluffs to maximise from, you charge those weak hands that might check behind, you protect your 'cc flop, lead river as bluff' lines, and the gains made through the CR are small as it's rarely called by worse.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Amoroso5 ($656.80)
UTG+1 beesweet35 ($623.85)
CO pethie ($400)
BTN grogheadflow ($400)
SB n3kt ($400)
BB DuTTiFruTTi9 ($406)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) grogheadflow is BTN 10 10
3 folds, grogheadflow raises to $10, n3kt raises to $32, DuTTiFruTTi9 raises to $68, grogheadflow folds, n3kt folds

Final Pot: $110

DuTTiFruTTi9 wins $110 (net +$42)

grogheadflow lost $10
n3kt lost $32


Rather stuck here, which just shows what a sick play the small cold 4bet is given I'm at the top of my range for stealing in this spot. I *think* duti is leggo coach joinmystack so obviously a sicko. Problem- when I stove his range, I only need a few cold bluffs in his range to make this a call. But then NT3K might still be involved. Having said that, there's obviously quite a few bluffs in his range and I could probably call in terms of raw equity anyway. But then, how is my hand perceived exactly? And the playability element, overcards are going to come on the flop like always. Shove? Is terrible risk reward wise to the small 4bet. 4bet fold to $105? Maybe that's the one, if called then some playability, probably a ton of folds, and NT3K should fold JJ down and maybe AK. Hmmmm, I shrugged and folded.


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG beesweet35 ($496.20)
UTG+1 grogheadflow ($406)
CO adam001 ($414.30)
BTN n3kt ($1,010.10)
SB selma_x2x ($1,156)
BB CaptainGant ($406)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) grogheadflow is UTG+1 J J
1 fold, grogheadflow raises to $12, 1 fold, n3kt raises to $40, 2 folds, grogheadflow calls $28

Flop: 7 7 Q ($86, 2 players)
grogheadflow checks, n3kt bets $44, grogheadflow calls $44

Turn: 3 ($174, 2 players)
grogheadflow checks, n3kt bets $84, grogheadflow folds

Final Pot: $258

n3kt wins $255 (net +$87)

grogheadflow lost $84

Not too many stats on this guy (which incidentally is extremely ironic, given this was the guy who started the 2p2 shitstorm about me using datamined HHs! but I digress). But yeah we all know this spot, and without more knowledge a bit of a guessing game. I guess I need crEV to tell me what to do. My thinking though is like, ok say he has bluffs half the time and value half the time, and then on the river he'll shove bluffs half the time and check the other half, then his river shoves are 3/4 value. His quick timing on the turn I think gives a clue that a river bet is also imminent, and his bluffs still have equity yada yada. Plus my perceived range smashes the queen high board. I think fold turn is best but I haven't done the analysis justice probably.


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Amoroso5 ($725.80)
UTG+1 beesweet35 ($577.85)
CO pethie ($400)
BTN grogheadflow ($400)
SB n3kt ($443.90)
BB DuTTiFruTTi9 ($485)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) grogheadflow is BTN 7 9
2 folds, pethie raises to $12, grogheadflow calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: Q 6 5 ($30, 2 players)
pethie bets $21, grogheadflow calls $21

Turn: 6 ($72, 2 players)
pethie bets $42, grogheadflow folds

Final Pot: $114

pethie wins $111 (net +$36)

grogheadflow lost $33

Ok I've included this hand just because it started me thinking about 'the curve'. So much of what we do in poker we take for granted, but originally all our default plays were truly sick because they exploited the population as a whole in such a palpable way you could just sit there, click buttons and count the zeros.

Let's start with the cbet. One day, some math(s) sicko realised we only make a pair 1/3 times. In conjunction with the tendency for players to fold no pair on the flop as the PF caller, this fact made it profitable to make a flop bet with any 2 cards after raising PF and win the pot around 66% of the time on average. The original Mr Cbettor, aka Dan Harrington maybe, was ahead of the curve and printed money (and books!)

Before long the word float was invented. It exploited the tendency of those players who knew about flop cbetting to shut down on the turn once called. I can only imagine how much money must've been printed by people calling every flop cbet IP and betting every turn. Those early floaters were way ahead of the curve. In this environment, my play in the hand above is just scintillating.

2012 though, and how do you defeat guys who are probably going to float you? Well in lots of ways; double barreling, check raising turns, giving up OOP more. All of this stuff happens all the time of course. All winning players do all of these things fairly regularly. My conclusion? Floating, in general, completely sucks. The curve is somewhere else now, don't wait to get spoonfed it because the curve won't stay still for long! A new flop strategy is required; some mixture of double floating, raising flops and folding marginal draws.

The analysis I've done above of the flop float can be applied to all areas of poker. The fact that we all bet fold top pairs on rivers for example while rarely bluff raising them ourselves. Lots of in-congruency in poker, lots of ways to get ahead of the curve, still lots of ways to make money.


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG C1awViper ($416)
UTG+1 Amoroso5 ($411.50)
CO n3kt ($734.30)
BTN grogheadflow ($512)
SB No3putts ($400)
BB Nahar ($185.90)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) grogheadflow is BTN K K
2 folds, n3kt raises to $12, grogheadflow raises to $36, 2 folds, n3kt raises to $84, grogheadflow calls $48

Flop: A Q 2 ($174, 2 players)
n3kt bets $62, grogheadflow calls $62

Turn: 6 ($298, 2 players)
n3kt checks, grogheadflow bets $68, n3kt goes all-in $588.30, grogheadflow folds

Final Pot: $954.30

n3kt wins $951.30 (net +$217)

grogheadflow lost $214


This is the hand that tilted me slightly towards the end. This was my 5th 3bet of the session, and his first play-back-at. I think given history, stacks, and position, he's bluffing very often. The way to exploit that of course is to flat PF. Ace hi board, sad face, but let's make the most of it. Call flop, standard, and now the turn.

I'm struggling now to articulate a good reason for betting the turn, but at the time my thoughts were; betting small acts as a river blocker bet, losing me less VS a bet check betted Ax. Betting the turn as opposed to the river leaves my range nutted..... I don't want to check the turn bet the river and have him jam in a spot where it's very clear the top of my range is AJ. Two flushdraws out there though, and if he ever CRAI the turn with a flushdraw then my line obviously completely sucks. And he probably does, and he probably never bet checks bet with any bluff so I could've soundly folded the river. So, A+ for effort, E for attainment. I think anyway.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG beesweet35 ($493.20)
UTG+1 grogheadflow ($536.70)
CO adam001 ($457.30)
BTN n3kt ($931.80)
SB selma_x2x ($1,139)
BB CaptainGant ($400)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) grogheadflow is UTG+1 8 8
1 fold, grogheadflow raises to $12, 3 folds, CaptainGant raises to $36, grogheadflow calls $24

Flop: J 7 8 ($74, 2 players)
CaptainGant bets $38, grogheadflow calls $38

Turn: 9 ($150, 2 players)
CaptainGant checks, grogheadflow bets $76, CaptainGant calls $76

River: A ($302, 2 players)
CaptainGant checks, grogheadflow checks

Final Pot: $302
CaptainGant shows
K J
grogheadflow shows
8 8

grogheadflow wins $299 (net +$149)

CaptainGant lost $150


This hand tilted me as well. But, it probably shouldn't. I mean, it tilts me because situationally if I just raise the flop I win all his money (vs him), but meh. Anyway, flop analyis, how many cards do I *hate* to see? This is the question I ask when deciding to slowplay or not. Well, I'd hate a T or 9, but I wouldn't hate them *that* much considering he'd rarely have a straight. There's only 8 Ts or 9s, so an 8% chance one comes on the turn and a less important 16% chance that one comes turn or river. So, by calling I maximise VS potential bluffs, although perhaps do worse VS QQ+ as cards such as an A or J can come to stop me winning 100bbs. Meh, I think he's showing a lot of strength betting this board and I should just raise the flop to be honest regardless. MISTAKE.

Turn is a 9 AND diamond. Screw you poker. Meh, he's bad, time to bet for value (where VS a better player, it's probably time to bet Jx twice as a bluff). He calls, I'm ahead, time to ship the river for value.

River ace. Bleh, I'm left with only JJ and maybe AJ that might call me. I don't really put AJ in his range (wrongly as it turns out, he had KJ), his range is more JJ/QQ/KK/AA. If he has all AJ, I have 53% equity vs a calling range. If he doesn't have AJ, I have close to zero % equity. I check and feel weak tight.

That's all. I liked doing this, kept me on my toes in the session. More to come maybe. Now let's ALL JUST BE FRIENDS