Variance is something we all deal with playing this fucking game every day. But at some point its supposed to even out. The problem is that if you understand variance and large numbers them evening out can take forever.

In the mean time we should play our game the best we can and understand that if we play well we are going to win money over the long run. Well I might just be out of time. Because this shit is fucking ridiculous.

This month has literally kicked me in the balls and spit in my face. It was so bad that at one point I got sweat by Probability, and at least I have a witness to the carnage. No, Not every hand i played was played correctly. And EV graphs wont even come close to telling the story here.

Basically I was grinding out 50nl, and shit got so bad I swore I would not deposit any more money. So i dropped down to 10nl. Shit hasnt changed !!!

I guess Im using this months blog to whine and bitch. But FFS how many times can you loose to Set over set, FH over FH, Flush over Flush, KK vs AA, and AK vs AK AIPF that runs a 4 flush before you just decide to quit.

Im sure some of these hands could have been folded, I suppose there was a small amount of tilt. But I feel most of these hands are just plus EV plays.

This hand pretty much put an end to the 50nl grind. Sadly I was 90% certain Villain had KK on the turn.

Can you fold this?

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $89.10
BB: $79.70
UTG: $52.25
CO: $35.95
Hero (BTN): $99.15

Pre-Flop: J 8 dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $1.50, CO folds, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 8 J 8 (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG bets $3, Hero calls $3, BB calls $3

Turn: ($13.75) K (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $10.50, BB folds, UTG raises to $22, Hero raises to $33.50, UTG raises to $47.75 and is All-In, Hero calls $14.25

River: ($109.25) 4 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $109.25 Pot ($3 Rake)
UTG showed K K and WON $106.25 (+$54 NET)
Hero showed J 8 and LOST (-$52.25 NET)

So after that I decided to drop down and play some mindnumbing 10nl bull shit, it should be fairly simple to build a roll back up, Ive done it before. I have a pretty dam nice sine bankroll for poker, I just didnt want to put any more money online at this time.

Ok here goes.
At this point I will say that 10nl has changed since I played there last. Vs most regs I dont even think getting AK AI pre flop is +EV. In this case vs this guy it was, and vs most of the fish it still is +EV. But how the fuck do we even comprehend this.

Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $2.75
MP: $11.82
CO: $5.33
BTN: $11.67
Hero (SB): $15.38
BB: $14.32

Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.05, BB raises to $0.60, MP folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $15.33 and is All-In, BB calls $13.72 and is All-In, CO folds

Flop: ($29.34) 9 5 T (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: ($29.34) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($29.34) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $29.34 Pot ($1.95 Rake)
Hero showed A K and LOST (-$14.27 NET)
BB showed K A and WON $27.39 (+$13.17 NET)

OK whatever, I probably have won this way myself before.

But surely when we hit sets they should have some post flop value right? In this hand I check the flop since it is not draw heavy and i dont expect to get called by much if i cbet. This villain will bet when checked to and is very aggressive when we show weakness. But seriously 2 outs and the guy hits the river.


Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $13.07
BTN: $3.55
SB: $10
BB: $11.09
UTG: $10
Hero (MP): $17.22

Pre-Flop: 6 6 dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) T 3 6 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.65) T (2 Players)
BB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

River: ($1.45) 8 (2 Players)
BB bets $1.10, Hero raises to $3.50, BB raises to $10.39 and is All-In, Hero calls $6.89

Results: $22.23 Pot ($1.48 Rake)
BB showed 8 8 and WON $20.75 (+$9.76 NET)
Hero mucked 6 6 and LOST (-$11.09 NET)


I think my line sucks in the hand, but wtf, I just think I can get called by worse here so often, I dont want this hand checking thru on the river.

Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $11.95
Hero (BB): $10.47
UTG: $9.51
CO: $15.23
BTN: $10.46

Pre-Flop: J Q dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.10, CO raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, SB folds, Hero calls $0.20, UTG calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.25) 4 9 3 (4 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, Hero raises to $2, UTG calls $2, CO folds, BTN calls $1.70

Turn: ($7.55) 8 (3 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN bets $4, Hero calls $4, UTG folds

River: ($15.55) Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $4.17 and is All-In, BTN calls $4.16 and is All-In

Results: $23.87 Pot ($1.59 Rake)
Hero showed J Q and LOST (-$10.36 NET)
BTN showed 7 K and WON $22.28 (+$11.82 NET)

Ok here is the last hand, I pretty much lost all desire after this one. Ya hes got equity, but hitting quads just ripped my guts out. i click it back expecting this fucktard to spaz out.

Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP: $13.08
CO: $10
BTN: $15.35
SB: $10.66
BB: $13.41
Hero (UTG): $10

Pre-Flop: 8 7 dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $0.30, MP calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($1.30) J 2 4 (4 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, 2 folds, SB raises to $2, Hero raises to $3, SB raises to $10.30, Hero calls $6.70 and is All-In

Turn: ($20.70) Q (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($20.70) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $20.70 Pot ($1.38 Rake)
SB showed J J and WON $19.32 (+$9.37 NET)
Hero showed 8 7 and LOST (-$10 NET)

So that my rant, if you read this far then you might understand why im pretty sick of the game. Last month was pretty much the same shit, but at 100nl. At this point Im not sure what fucking direction i want to go with the game.

I cant see myself quitting, but im not sure why on fucking earth I would continue.