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While this is very straightforward, I will explicitly use this system for hand analysis. Documenting an example here should keep it straight in my mind. The following hand analysis is done by someone from my old university:
Button Button ($983.00)
SB ($1139.90)
BB ($649.70)
UTG Hero ($745.30)
UTG+1 ($414.10)
CO ($442.30)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Kh Ks
Hero raises to 14.00, 2 folds, Button calls 14.00, 2 folds.
Flop (34.00) 7d 8h 3d
Hero bets 30.00, Button raises to 92.00, Hero calls 62.00.
Turn (218.00) Kd
Hero checks, Button bets 182.00, Hero calls 182.00.
River (582.00) 5c
Hero checks, Button bets 275.00, Hero calls 275.00
Hero shows K K
Button shows T 9
Button wins 1132.00 with Flush (Diamonds) with King high
You want us to think about villains range, ok. Preflop, villain could have any number of suited connectors, pocket pairs, possibly even up to JJ because we are deep he might not 3 bet, some suited aces, probably he is 3betting strong suited aces, and some random broadways are a very small part of his range.
On the flop:
He raises our flop bet. He has either:
1) A set. 2) Overpair, 99-JJ raising to find out whats up. 3) Flush draw. 4) T9. 5) 78. 6) Air (including weak pairs hes missed a set & bluffraised with and other random parts of his range.
We call, turn Kd, completing flush. For simplicity, I will merge his range into 4 parts.
1) Made flush. 2) Lower set / two pair. 3) Weak pairs (99-JJ, other bluffraised pairs) 4) Air (str8 draws are now air).
If we lead, what is he doing with the different parts of his range?
1) Depending on strength of flush, calling and calling river or calling and raising river.
2) Call turn probably fold river.
3) Fold
4) Fold
If we check turn, what is he doing?
1) Betting turn and river.
2) Sometimes betting turn, sometimes betting turn and river. If he checks behind we bet 2/3 to 3/4 pot on river to get value from these hands.
3) Check behind turn, sometimes call our river bet.
4) Sometimes give up, sometimes continue the bluff on turn and sometimes river.
So by betting the turn, what do we gain in "controlling the size of the pot"? 1) He folds all of his **** and probably his weaker made hands since he wont want to call 2 streets after flush hits. 2) He calls us and we have no idea whether he has a flush or a weaker set/2pair and we are OOP on the river. You say we then bet half pot and fold to a raise. So we have lost the same amount to a flush as we would have done by check/calling, and we dont get to show the hand down. How is that controlling the size of the pot? So why dont we just checkcall turn and river and get value from all the air we just made him fold on the turn?
Essentially when you donkbet the turn in this spot you are turning top set into a bluff.
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