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Irishman07

Nov
18
2011
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Posted in Poker | View Comments (10)
 

There was a lot of Game Theory talk last month in the High Stakes thread on 2p2 and it got me thinking about Rock, Paper, Scissors. Its probably pretty obvious to most that the game theory optimal approach to RPS would be to throw 1/3 of each at random.

So while it would seem that it would be impossible to actually have an edge playing against someone even remotely intelligent, after watching enough episodes of Wheel of Fortune, (note on the vid: if you are offended easily there is some colorful commentary at the end you may want to avoid), I have come to the conclusion that the average person is pretty terrible at anything even remotely strategy related. That clip isn't even strategy related either, its just someone being dumb, which happens a lot too.

Thinking about this naturally led me to start wondering what kind of edge at RPS a winning midstakes poker player would have against a person of average intelligence, given that poker players by nature are adept at strategy and picking up patterns in opponents' play.

So my first question would be, if you knew you were playing someone of average intelligence, do you think there is an optimal choice for your first throw?

And how big of an edge, if any, (i.e. what percentage do you think they would be expected to win in the long run) do you think a winning poker player would have over:

Best of 9?
Best of 99?
Best of 999?

If you assume that the winning percentage increases over the longer series, is there a cap to the winning percentage that couldn't be increased by increasing the series length, and if so, at what percentage?

I'm not exactly sure how I would answer the latter questions, but in my mind I think the clear choice throwing first is Paper. Discuss.

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Comments
11-18-2011
jonstermonster is offline jonstermonster
in my game theory class in college the professor had a student come to the front of the class to play rpc. the professor throw rock for ever throw. it took the student a few turns to realize what was happening, so the professor ended up winning one of the throws. how this relates to poker is that against an incompetent, non-adjusting opponent there is no need for balance. a random opponent I FEEL would throw rock>scissors>paper. this is just my feeling after playing MANY games of rps (i seem to always win best 2 of 3 tho...probably just some sick run good...ORRRR perhaps i was sent by the rps gods to destroy all who play.
11-18-2011
grogheadflow is online now grogheadflow
grogheadflow's Avatar
I thought the ABC of this game was that fishes always go paper first ?
11-18-2011
chrisw7128 is offline chrisw7128
U should always throw rock first vs random ppl. W/o any strategy thought out before hand (which encompasses 99.9% of all RPS hands) ppl are apt to throw whatever comes to mind, which is seemingly random, but not random at all. It's convenient for them to throw rock or scissors way more often than paper. They throw rock because their hand is already in the rock position sometimes. They throw scissors because the last option they say out loud is scissors (this is even more reliable when you play R-P-S rather than R-P-S-SHOOT). So, vs villains throwing like ~40-45% rock and ~55-60% scissors, rock is the obv choice. If you tie, throw it again. If the speed of the game is kept moving quickly when the first round is a tie, they don't have time to think of a "strategy" and almost always revert back to hearing scissors or feeling rock and throwing one of them.

Regarding your question about winrates over time, I think our winrate drastically diminishes as the sample size increases because even the biggest drooler will start throwing all three more at random as the sample size increases and they begin to think about what they're going to throw.
11-18-2011
amurophil is offline amurophil
Quote:
So, vs villains throwing like ~40-45% rock and ~55-60% scissors, rock is the obv choice
pretty sure you can assign these frequencies to no one. lol who throws scissors 0% of the time on a first throw?

In a shorter match vs an average person, always throw paper first. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMxzU6hxrNA
11-18-2011
DennisGPunkt is offline DennisGPunkt
i doubt that the 1st choice is important, but the second surely is.
11-18-2011
Robin_Ripper is offline Robin_Ripper
I got owned by Probability hard because he figured out I rarely threw the same thing twice in a row
11-18-2011
Sc000t is offline Sc000t
I think throwing paper first is ideal. I KNOW it's ideal when playing vs. a large group (see below).

Another interesting way to play RPS is to play vs a group of people and to take their average. It's much easier to predict the groups average throw compared to a single persons. A large group of people will almost always throw the first 3 throws in order.

Also, there are automated (bot) RPS competitions. And the ones that randomize NEVER win.
11-18-2011
guitarizt is offline guitarizt
Take this article with a grain of salt but it makes sense to me. I think they also mentioned something on tv that girls are more likely to throw scissors than guys are by 6-7% or something.

http://www.mentalfloss.com/blogs/archives/2032
11-19-2011
kennell9 is offline kennell9
Vs randoms paper is the best first throw. Rock obviously pwns everything because it's the most manly throw even though it has an equal chance of losing. Due to so many rock vs rock showdowns, some adjust by throwing paper first. Nobody throws scissors first, and if they do it's important to question their sexuality in front of everybody so that they don't ever do it again. Also, grimming ftw.
11-28-2011
FabledHero is offline FabledHero
Yeah I've played a decent amount of RPS to see who shoots first in beer pong. The most commonly opener by a decent amount i've noticed is rock. if I had to estimate the averages on the first throw I think it'd be something like 50% rock, 30% paper, 20% scissors.
 
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