It's really hard to write a post about variance without sounding like you're whining about it. Let's face it, unless you're running badly yourself you just don't want to hear someone talk about how bad it can be. And especially when you're running good it just doesn't cross your mind that it can be that bad. I'll admit it, the past couple years I've run fairly well and anytime I saw someone complain about some really bad stretch of luck I'd just chalk it up to them not really being that good of a player.

So I guess I shouldn't then expect people to pay attention when I say it: Variance in this game can be really bad - worse than most people can imagine. I don't even pretend to think I've gotten the worst of it but nonetheless here's a small taste of it:

[/url]

That's been the last month and a half or so. 40 buyin downswing... check. Unfortunately all-in EV only tells part of the story. It's easy to look at the graph and conclude that I'm barely winning much anyway even with the All-in EV taken away. I know that'd be my first thought if someone showed me a graph like this - "Well the downswing wouldn't be nearly as bad if only he played better and won more in non all-in pots". There's so many different forms of luck though and it's certainly conceivable to run bad in more ways than one. Off the top of my head:

1) Running badly in G-bucks EV - probably the biggest source of bad luck - no real way to calculate this but running into the top of your opponents ranges - something like running KK into AA more than your fair share and more than when you have AA vs KK yourself. Even if you win your "fair share" of all ins according to all-in EV it's still running bad in the sense that with KK you are nearly always a favorite against opponent's range.

2) Overall how many times you're dealt premium hands and/or hit flops big with speculative hands. It's great to play well but if you just don't get big hands as often as your opponents do or flop sets as much it'll be tough to win as much money.

3) How often you get paid off when you do hit. Again, it's all well and good to get dealt big hands but if everyone else has nothing when you do you're not gonna make much money.

4) Random seat selection - when you're on a wait list or starting a table often it'll just be completely random where you get placed. Sometimes people can just get lucky and have the fish sit in on their direct right a lot or just avoid being placed to the right of a very aggro reg.

Most people assume that these things just even out and on average they're right but like in any scenario there will be outliers and it's certainly conceivable that in a player pool numbering in the thousands there will be several that run badly in multiple categories. I'd like to think I'm fairly objective about my own game and I do feel that as far as the G-Bucks category goes I'm running into the top of opponents ranges a lot. Maybe some of that is perception bias where I'm remembering more the times I lose than when I win, but I feel this hand has been fairly typical for me.

Full Tilt, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $591
Hero (SB): $1,057.60
BB: $800
UTG: $649.80
MP: $1,175.70
CO: $800

Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG raises to $12, 3 folds, Hero raises to $40, BB folds, UTG calls $28

Flop: ($84) 9 3 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets $52, UTG calls $52

Turn: ($188) 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $130, UTG raises to $557.80 and is All-In, Hero calls $427.80

River: ($1,303.60) 4 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $1,303.60 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed A A and LOST (-$647.80 NET)
UTG showed 6 7 and WON $1,300.60 (+$650.80 NET)

Once I'm shoved against on the turn I'm not thrilled about my hand but my opponent was 35/25 and pretty aggro and only needing 33% equity I figure if he ever is semibluffing here or has a worse pair I can't fold. Unfortunately he has the stone cold nuts and I'm drawing dead. Vs his shoving range I figured I was somewhere in the 35-40% range at least but that just shows how all-in EV can sometimes be misleading.

Which leads me to my next point - variance can easily have a negative impact on win rate due to tilt or altered perception of ranges. Tilt is easy to understand - if you constantly get in as a favorite against the opponent's range and either run into a better hand or have a better hand but get sucked out on it begins to stress even the most even-keeled personality and can cause you to play sub-optimally. Altered perception of ranges is another problem associated with variance, although poker players are definitely better than the general public in this regard. What I mean by this is that we know that even if we run kings into aces a few times in a row we know that it's still correct to get all in with kings since we know our opponent's range is wider than simply aces even though short term history suggests otherwise. However, I think it's human nature that we put more emphasis on short term results - I'm no scientist but I imagine it's hardwired within us as part of an evolutionary trait where those that could adapt the quickest to changing circumstances would survive. So what that means in terms of poker is that, using the hand history example above, it's easy to conclude that you are making a mistake bet/calling Aces on the turn if you lose often enough and you either start to play more passive on the turn and probably lose value or you start to fold too often when raised, assuming that opponent "always" has it. As a quick sidenote - this is not only limited to situations where you are losing - it can often happen to players on a heater as well where they so often are hitting draws or getting opponents to fold when they bluff that they often will incorrectly start to adapt and playing hands in a -EV manner just because they believe that they will win more often than they actually will in reality.

I guess the main point of this post is to highlight the fact that a VERY big part of being the best poker player you can be, and one that is often overlooked in favor of the ability to make cool fancy plays like double floating and bluff raising the river, is the ability to handle variance in stride. If you are aware that it can happen to anyone and can somehow remain objective about your game throughout the process you will stand to make a ton more money than a more talented player that alters his game too much when variance hits. As I know from personal experience, that is a task much easier said than done.