Last time we analyzed the situation of 3-betting the flop for value. Recall that the board is 986r, and we get checkraised on the flop holding QQ. Let's now explore some of our turn options after calling a flop raise.

Case 1 - Fold unimproved. This is bad against all but the most predictable opponents.

Case 2 - Shove blanks, fold scary cards. We'll discuss this situation in this article.

Case 3 - Call blanks and decide on river, fold scary turns. I dislike this option on this board texture since even if the turn bricks we hate most of the deck on the river. This would be a line I'd take against easy to read players, since you can safely fold the river or easily pick off a bluff. A big draw will bet/call the turn anyways, so this option loses some value.

Case 4 - Call blanks for value, call or shove scary cards as a bluff. This is pretty interesting approach that I may discuss in a future article.

So let's continue with case 2. What are the scary cards? What are the blanks? Now, some of the scare cards are more scary than others, and the same goes for the blanks. But roughly I would say that we have the breakdown

Blank - 2,3,4,J,Q,K,A
Scary - 5,6,7,8,9,T

Note that an ace is somewhat scary (A7 or a pure bluff with AJ etc). A 6 and 8 are also not too scary, but we'll lump them in with the other scare cards. So our plan is to fold on 6 cards, and stack off on the other 7.

Assuming villain has the same range as in part one, we will have about 53% equity against the calling portion of that range on a typical blank turn. Some turns like the A lowers our equity, but 53% is a good approximation if we use a turn card like the J or 4. Our EV of getting allin on the turn is:

(6/13)(-10) + (7/13)[(.53)(130) - (.47)(110)]] = 4.6bb.

Now villain will bet/fold some hands on the turn. Suppose he bets 25 into 37 on the turn. Estimating his bet/folding frequency is a little tough, but let's use 15% (perhaps an underestimation). Then we get the new EV of:

(6/13)(-10) + (7/13)[(.15)(52) + (.85)((.53)(130) - (.47)(110))] = 7.5bb.

7.5bb is significantly lower than the 23bb we got for 3-betting the flop. So is calling to see a turn cleary incorrect? I don't think so. I may have overestimated our allin equity on the flop. I have also probably underestimated villains bluffing frequency on the turn. You can work out the numbers for slightly differennt assumptions to see what the EV difference is. My intuition tells me that the decision is closer, maybe a 4-5bb difference between the two. If the flop contains a flush draw I would guess that calling to wait for a safe turn will be even better. We will probably still stack off to a flush sometimes (call or shove turn depending on the flush card), but we can get more semibluffing hands to bet turn with poorer equity. Sometimes we get bluffed on the scary turns, but remember that we only lose the 10bb from the flop call.