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I thought It'd be fun to bet on the hometown Seahawks. Apparently they're a 250-1 longshot. I've been looking for a place to book it, but the best odds I can find are 150-1 at sportsbook. Do I need to be in vegas to get those odds, or will everything I find always be < 250-1?
Let's say the Seahawks road to the SB goes something like this: Saints, Falcons, Bears, Pats.
Saints: injuries and not quite as good as last year. Plus Hawks can step up at home so => .4
Falcons: this will be difficult. => .2
Bears: Seahawks have already beaten them at home, also not as good as their record. => .4
Pats: I think they're overrated and won't make the SB. Still, they're the favorite. => .3
.4 * .2 * .4 * .3 = 0.0096 or slightly less than 1% chance to win the SB. I break even at 0.4% so this is a snap?!
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