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jupiter

Jan
06
2011
Sports Betting Noob
Posted in Poker | View Comments (2)
 

I thought It'd be fun to bet on the hometown Seahawks. Apparently they're a 250-1 longshot. I've been looking for a place to book it, but the best odds I can find are 150-1 at sportsbook. Do I need to be in vegas to get those odds, or will everything I find always be < 250-1?

Let's say the Seahawks road to the SB goes something like this: Saints, Falcons, Bears, Pats.
Saints: injuries and not quite as good as last year. Plus Hawks can step up at home so => .4
Falcons: this will be difficult. => .2
Bears: Seahawks have already beaten them at home, also not as good as their record. => .4
Pats: I think they're overrated and won't make the SB. Still, they're the favorite. => .3

.4 * .2 * .4 * .3 = 0.0096 or slightly less than 1% chance to win the SB. I break even at 0.4% so this is a snap?!

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01-06-2011
klink- is offline klink-
not commenting on the bet itself, but generally futures bets are the highest vig and most -EV bets you can make on a sports betting site. You might as well just bet on the ML each game and if they win using their profits to bet on the next game, i.e. if the seahawks are something like +450, you bet 100 to win 450, then you put 450 on the next game, etc.
01-06-2011
jupiter is offline jupiter
Interesting, thanks.
 
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