We have all chosen to play a game based on logic. A game where we are necessarily compelled to do our very best to ignore the concept of “luck”, and instead focus on improving our skill sets to the point that variance exists as a mere footnote on our way to true success. However, this pursuit of logic has, for varying fascinating reasons, been accompanied by a completely disparate and illogical belief. This belief is that of the Poker Gods.

We’ve all encountered this. A man has moved all in with a flush draw. His opponent has called with top pair. The outcome of the hand, and their happiness of the immediate future, is now completely outside the influence of either of the players. But, rather than accept that he is powerless, the man with the flush draw looks towards the heavens, and claims that the ‘Poker Gods’ must surely owe him and will therefore somehow intervene and allow him to win his hand. If he wins the hand, he thanks his Poker God for its conscientiousness in realising it was his time. If he loses the hand, he curses the same figure and questions what he could have done to deserve such treatment from his deity. Never does it occur to him that his thought process on the subject is not only childish and silly, but can comfortably be categorised as a fully fledged delusion.

Easily the most popular argument in favour of the existence of a Poker God is the argument from improbability. No matter where its origin, the argument follows the same basic path: person A re-tells a bad beat of statistically unlikely proportions to person B, following it up with the conclusion that it was so brutal that it cannot have occurred purely by chance. The hand given is very likely to be statistically improbable. But the argument completely dissipates with a simple but often glaringly overlooked realization.

The probability of flopping set under set on a rainbow board only to get all the money in and still lose is no greater than the chance that a hurricane, sweeping through a scrap yard, would be fortunate enough to assemble a F-22 fighter jet from the assorted spare parts. If it seems unlikely to you that such horrific beats could in fact be purely the result of variance, then the idea that a designer of that very unlikely event, one that could decide the outcome of individual hands, actually exists must be as close as we can come to the impossible. The Poker God is the ultimate F-22.

One source of positivity towards poker religion is the comfort that a Poker God can bring when someone is running very poorly. In times of grief, such as running fifty buy ins below expectation in one month, the notion that running bad is simply part of a much larger ‘run good’ plan of a supernatural being is apparently comforting to the respective victim.

While I do not personally think this a positive ideal at all, there is certainly something to the idea of the mass public finding consolation from an all powerful poker deity. Crucially however, this does not make it true in the slightest sense. Merely believing something is a good idea, and even wishing it so, simply does not add any validity to an intellectual debate. Certainly in such hard times you will also believe that running neutral or even above EV would have been far more positive, but no amount of wishful thinking will reverse those QQ
In any scientific exploration of the power of prayers on the outcome of individual poker hands, all the evidence suggests there is absolutely no statistical difference for those players who attempted to use their hotline to a Poker God to their advantage vs. those who didn’t. Not only that, but given the short term emotional responses, it can actually be suggested that an aversion to Poker Gods leads to better life results. Both the player who prays and the one who does not are unashamedly happy when they win, and both are understandably unhappy when they lose. The only principal difference being that the man who asks for help from the Poker Gods, and loses, can be deathly afraid of the possibility of his Poker God being angry or upset with him which may lead to further punishments in future hands. While the non theistic player can look back comfortably at the wonder that is probability, embrace the natural variance for what it really is, and continue his game as tilt free as possible knowing factually that his chances of success in future hands will be entirely unaffected.

Another assumed reason for looking towards a Poker God is the thought that such a figure makes a potentially harsh looking game appear more socially luminous. In a batch of more recent televised tournaments we have seen some very positive looking tales on behalf of poker theism. The most famous of these is probably that of the 2007 World Series of Poker Champion Jerry Yang, who continually invoked the help of his Poker God in ‘letting him win’. Admittedly this is not the only happy story found amongst the newer donkaments. But when we actually look over such texts as the earlier tapes of the World Poker Tour, we see that the Poker God of the Old Donkaments is an unimaginably malevolent and cruel figure indeed.

In the story of the Borgata Poker Open Season 4, it was a classic duel between two hungry players. In one corner amatuer Al Ardebili, while in the other fan favourite "Ricky" Ricardo Festejo. Occurring during heads up play, the critical hand of the tournament is still taught to poker enthusiasts everywhere to this day.

This is an excerpt from the WPT scriptures found on worldpokertour.com,

"Festejo found As-2h on the button, and raised to 600,000. Ardebili, sensing a move, or maybe just setting up a steal on the flop, called with 3d-2d. When the flop came Ks-7d-2s, Ardebili checked his bottom pair, but Festejo bet his, firing in 1,000,000. Ardebili put the pincers right back on Festejo when he pushed over the top, all-in, with a brilliant check raise. Taking his time to recreate the hand in his mind, though, Festejo then made what Vince Van Patten accurately told the home audience was "the call of the decade." The entire room was abuzz as word worked its way around that "Ricky" Ricardo had called almost his entire stack with a pair of twos! Ardebili looked like he'd been run over, just as the turn card came a miracle 3d to give him trips! Ardebili had cheated death by hitting a two outer. A perfunctory 8h fell on the river, and now the young amateur had a 9-to-1 stranglehold on the still affable Festejo."

Mike Sexton agreed that the call for over $3 million in real currency was the call of the decade, while the WPT voice over guy called it the call of Ricardo’s life. Yet he did not win the hand or, eventually, the tournament of his dreams. Even if you were incorrectly basing your belief of Poker Gods on the positivity on their stories, is such a Poker God who deals out that most heinous of injustices to no less than the fan favourite (note, it does not say second or third favourite, but absolute favourite) really a figure possessing the quality of morality we would wish to follow? This is a merciless figure. It is a stunningly misogynistic figure (one need only to look at the number of major tournaments the Poker Gods have “allowed” women to win). It is a twisted figure, one who loves nothing more than to bring a turn card of real hope, only to dash those hopes unrelentingly on the river. Yet it is a figure that somehow, in the face of all logic and reason, remains.

It doesn’t have to.

Till next time.