I've been playing more live poker lately to offset my longish breakeven/downswing stretch online. I managed to make a great read and a rookie mistake all in the same hand last night.
Blinds are $3/5 at an LA casino, max buyin is $200 and stacks are basically still that for everyone in the hand. My friend has been opening pretty light to my left, he opens UTG to $20, a guy who had been active called from the SB and I completed from the big w/ QT.
Flop was AKx with 2 spades, I donked into my friend for $40, he folded, active guy called OOP. Turn was a non-spade K, and we checked it through.
River's a total blank, $140 in the pot, and active guy makes a really stiff looking $60. He had about $40 left.
I was just so sure he was bluffing. Guys almost never lead an Ace in this spot live, and will often lead a King on the turn if they think they sucked out. They also tend to bluff in bad spots. Problem was, I didn't just want to call him w/ Q high b/c guys will do weird things like turn weird hands with a pair into a bluff as well. So after thinking about it for awhile, I put him all in, really expecting him to fold out a bluff.
He thinks, finally he says "I have to see your hand" and calls his last $40. I muck, convinced I made a bad read on an Ace that wouldn't fold and he shows me 97 spades! I chalked it up to a "lesson" to learn from, but honestly don't expect a spot like this to ever come up again.