I've been playing more live poker lately to offset my longish breakeven/downswing stretch online. I managed to make a great read and a rookie mistake all in the same hand last night.

Blinds are $3/5 at an LA casino, max buyin is $200 and stacks are basically still that for everyone in the hand. My friend has been opening pretty light to my left, he opens UTG to $20, a guy who had been active called from the SB and I completed from the big w/ QT.

Flop was AKx with 2 spades, I donked into my friend for $40, he folded, active guy called OOP. Turn was a non-spade K, and we checked it through.

River's a total blank, $140 in the pot, and active guy makes a really stiff looking $60. He had about $40 left.

I was just so sure he was bluffing. Guys almost never lead an Ace in this spot live, and will often lead a King on the turn if they think they sucked out. They also tend to bluff in bad spots. Problem was, I didn't just want to call him w/ Q high b/c guys will do weird things like turn weird hands with a pair into a bluff as well. So after thinking about it for awhile, I put him all in, really expecting him to fold out a bluff.

He thinks, finally he says "I have to see your hand" and calls his last $40. I muck, convinced I made a bad read on an Ace that wouldn't fold and he shows me 97 spades! I chalked it up to a "lesson" to learn from, but honestly don't expect a spot like this to ever come up again.

Real meh, obviously. This is about the most frustrating stretch I've ever played through. Can't seem to turn the corner, but I've read about some pretty sick break even stretches (sometimes 200-300k hands) for even very good players, so will just continue to grind and try to improve.

cuz I don't think these beats are sustainable

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $86.85
Hero (BB): $108.70

Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $5, BTN calls $4

Flop: ($10) 8 9 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $9, BTN raises to $81.85 and is All-In, Hero calls $72.85

Turn: ($173.70) 2 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($173.70) 2 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $173.70 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
BTN showed 2 2 and WON $173.20 (+$86.85 NET)
Hero showed Q Q and LOST (-$85.85 NET)

First run good in a long time. Ship

After going almost 2 years w/o a losing month, I've managed to book 2 in a row! Hopefully the worst of my bad run is over, I was actually allowed to win a few 70/30's towards the end of the year.

Great trip so far, people and place have a great vibe. Went into the rain forest today, definitely recommend. Tomorrow is NYE, happy 2011 everyone.

Last 90k or so hands



I guess it's pretty standard to have a bad stretch. This one's been particularly brutal though b/c it's a day in and day out thing. I don't really want to take a 'break' just b/c I'm in a downswing, I figure sooner or later the math will work itself out and the quicker I grind out of it, the happier I'll be. Problem is, it's massively disappointing to get the bad taste just about every day since I play so frequently to get good volume in (outside of my job) . I try to reset before every day/session, get a work out in, get in a good head space, but it just keeps breaking bad. Hopefully this is a reverse jinx post.

On my way to San Juan on Sunday, probably just what I need.

Couldn't dig out of the hole, snapping a string of 21 straight winning months. I'd like to think I'll start another long streak, but since I'm mixing in more 2/4, I think there's more of a chance that I'll get wrecked a few times now and then.

Sick final episode of Sons of Anarchy. Revenge is sweet.

3rd month in a row that I've had a >$2K gap in EV. Most of the run bad's still at 200-400NL. I'm gonna try and dig out of this hole at 100NL for the 2nd half of the month. I've got a streak of 21 consecutive winnings months I'd like to keep intact, I think I can do it if I play well/run better.

Running bad is brutal, but I don't really believe in taking breaks. There's plenty of jobs that have much lower lows than losing at poker that people can't just walk away from when things get tough. With more variance in the game these days, I just think it's more important than ever to be able to take a punch. Sooner or later I'm gonna grind through to the other side of variance and I'd like to get there sooner.