06-30-2009

Man, that's brutal

06-30-2009

If you don't mind explaining, what's yr thought process on the flop and turn in the 3rd hand? In particular the flop 3bet with middle pair and why you think this is better than calling or folding.

06-30-2009

3 BLOGS IN ONE DAY!!!!!!
who do you think you are...robin_ripper???

06-30-2009

siac -- I'm glad I posted that hand actually because it's different than how we perceive you should play middle pair.

The deeper the stacks are, the less important our holding becomes. I like to donk a lot, and there are lots of hands that have lots of equity vs. me if I c/c the flop. Secondly, this particular opponent was cbetting less than most, so I should be leading more than most. I don't really like a c/r here because it's going to simply inflate the pot without giving me more information.

When he raises, I think there is a greater EV with 3balling the flop than calling or folding, because I get folds from hands that have 25%+ equity vs mine all day.

On the turn, his bet size and timing seemed suspicious, as we only have 1.5x pot left, with 2 streets to get it in, and he's betting 70% of the pot on the turn. I have a blocker to a set, and there is a good chance he checks behind some/most jacks on the turn because my play does represent strength (or at least, something more polarized than say JQ). There's a good chance he checks behind sets because of pot-to-stack ratio (or does something like bet in the 1k range). Honestly, the guy is a winning 25/50 player, and you don't really see people being scared of checking the turn because the flush might hit at these limits because the variance of checking (or betting very small I suppose) is higher, but the EV is as well.