Here are some hands as promised in my last blog. I am on a huge downswing as well. I have been on bigger downswings in terms of buy ins, but this is my first sizable downswing at 100nl, which adds up to a lot more money thant 25nl or 50nl. I knew it would happen after being all self-congratulatory in my last blog and even posting a graph to tempt fate. I am running around 9 BI under EV in my last 3k hands at 100nl, which really sucks, and makes my decision to cash out a few hundred dollars at the beginning of the month pretty questionable. My last session was particularly brutal, although I am telling myself it is more coolers than anything else. All the same, I don't think I can fool myself into thinking that a big downswing after a big upswing is totally variance related, and I with that in mind, I am posting a couple of questionable hands along with some hands where I think I could easily have saved myself some money.

Fwiw, the story seems to have gone like this: Win a lot of money playing solid TAG and running decently; play looser resulting in more higher variance spots; lose some money due to variance; lose some money due to tilt.

Hand 1

UTG raiser is 44/28 and opening 44% from MP. He seems like a huge laggy donk running extremely hot. I have seen him get it in very lightly on the flop and turn. SB is a 19/14 TAG capable of being very aggressive.

SB ($139)
BB ($100)
UTG ($94.50)
UTG+1 ($390)
CO ($100)
Hero ($131)

Dealt to Hero 2 A

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, fold, Hero calls $3, SB calls $2.50, fold

FLOP ($10) 3 6 T

SB checks, UTG+1 bets $10, Hero raises to $31, SB raises to $113, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $128 (AI), SB calls $15.95

I am happy to get it in here on the flop vs. the UTG raiser since I think he stacks off with top pair, any overpair, or a worse flush draw, and sets of course. I am 42% against that range, and I would like to push the SB out with a raise. When SB raises, he seems pretty FOS to me, and I know from previous play that he is capable of bluffing here. I think he just flats with a set, so he has either a worse draw or a top pair strong kicker hand looking to get it in with villain. I think I am doing really well here, and there is so much money in the pot at this point that I can't possibly fold.

TURN ($277) 3 6 T 3

RIVER ($277) 3 6 T 3 6

Hero shows 2 A
(Pre 31%, Flop 37.2%, Turn 18.2%)

SB shows A T
(Pre 69%, Flop 62.8%, Turn 81.8%)

SB wins $274

Hand 2

This hand is at the end of my big losing session, and it just illustrates how I get sloppy in my thinking when I am tilting. Villain is 20/13 AF 4.

SB ($100)
BB ($134)
UTG ($206)
UTG+1 ($62.05)
CO ($139)
Hero ($108)

Dealt to Hero 9 9

UTG raises to $3, fold, CO calls $3, Hero calls $3, fold, fold

FLOP ($10.50) 7 7 3

UTG bets $6, CO calls $6, Hero calls $6

TURN ($28.50) 7 7 3 7

UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets $16.50, UTG folds, CO raises to $130 (AI), Hero calls $82.95 (AI)

I think I have the best hand here most of the time until CO shoves. Such a huge overbet means, imo, that he is at the very top of his calling range preflop (TT+) or has a 7. I don't think he plays a smaller pp like this very often as he seems to be a thinking player and would realize he only gets called by better. For my part, I was just enamored with my FH and called. I think I should be betting bigger on the turn, at any rate to set up an easier river shove that can be called by a smaller pp.

RIVER ($227) 7 7 3 7 8

Hero shows 9 9
(Pre 19%, Flop 8.4%, Turn 4.5%)

CO shows J J
(Pre 81%, Flop 91.6%, Turn 95.5%)

CO wins $223


Hand 3

Kind of a cooler, but it illustrates a problem I am having along with the next hand. This player fired 100% of flops and turns, and fired big, just pot pot potting away. 34/13 AF 2 over 66 hands. He started off playing much looser, and perhaps that colored my perception of him in a way. I am super comfortable with preflop and flop. On the turn when he bets half pot, perhaps I should be worried, but I pretty much made up my mind on the flop that I had to just call him down. I stopped calling IP with SC and more prospective hands because of his betting patterns, because he would make it very expensive for me if I flopped some kind of draw. I always feel like I am guessing on the river.

SB ($100)
BB ($96.10)
UTG ($101)
UTG+1 ($262)
Hero ($105)
BTN ($97)

Dealt to Hero A J

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, fold, fold

FLOP ($12) A T 3

UTG+1 bets $14, Hero calls $14, BTN folds

TURN ($40) A T 3 T

UTG+1 bets $20, Hero calls $20

RIVER ($80) A T 3 T 3

UTG+1 bets $80, Hero calls $67.50 (AI)

UTG+1 shows A Q
(Pre 74%, Flop 81.7%, Turn 85.2%)

Hero shows A J
(Pre 26%, Flop 18.3%, Turn 14.8%)

UTG+1 wins $211

Hand 4

Here is also a case where Villain fires 100% of flops and turns, this time over 125 hands. He is 24/12 and he opens 17% utg.


SB ($110)
BB ($26.75)
UTG ($197)
UTG+1 ($110)
CO ($399)
Hero ($100)

Dealt to Hero Q Q

UTG raises to $4, fold, fold, Hero calls $4, fold, fold

FLOP ($9.50) 2 J Q

UTG bets $9.50, Hero calls $9.50

My standard is to raise here with a FD on board, but I think villain has relatively few FD in his range, especially with the Qs out (ruling out AsQs and KsQs) that I most likely just fold out a lot of hands that I know would continue firing on the turn and possibly river. All the same I am unsure whether this is just FPS here due to tilt from losing so recently and I should just be raising. If another spade falls or maybe a T and he keeps firing, it would be very hard to navigate for me.

TURN ($28.50) 2 J Q 5

UTG bets $15, Hero calls $15

Again the half pot bet. This is a different player, but maybe this pot/half pot betting line is a read I have missed out on?

RIVER ($58.50) 2 J Q 5 A

UTG bets $169 (AI), Hero calls $71.50 (AI)

Hero shows Q Q
(Pre 18%, Flop 86.3%, Turn 95.5%)

UTG shows A A
(Pre 82%, Flop 13.7%, Turn 4.5%)

UTG wins $198

So upsetting when he flipped over his cards. I am owning 22, JJ, 55, AJ, AQ here hard every time, and there are a ton of hands that fire the turn that would give up to a flop raise, I think my line is +EV in the long run, but maybe someone impartial can chime in here.



Hand 5


UTG is 48/13 and donks 22% of the time. He donks with weak draws and 2nd and 3rd pair for the most part. BTN is 27/16. Here I think the river is a fold since I am not last to act. I can depend on UTG to bluff missed draws and valuetown himself with a worse hand most of the time, but the BTN behind me is only calling with a better hand once the A rolls off on the turn. This was near the end of my session, and I think the last hand I played.


SB ($131)
BB ($53.59)
UTG ($391)
Hero ($83.38)
CO ($50)
BTN ($93.15)

Dealt to Hero J 9

UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, fold, BTN calls $2.50, fold, fold, UTG calls $2

FLOP ($8.85) J 6 6

UTG bets $4.42, Hero calls $4.42, BTN calls $4.42

TURN ($22.11) J 6 6 A

UTG bets $11.05, Hero calls $11.05, BTN calls $11.05

RIVER ($55.26) J 6 6 A 6

UTG bets $55.26, Hero calls $55.26, BTN calls $55.26

UTG shows 8 7
(Pre 22%, Flop 3.3%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero shows J 9
(Pre 32%, Flop 48.7%, Turn 4.8%)

BTN shows Q A
(Pre 46%, Flop 48.0%, Turn 95.2%)

BTN wins $217

Hand 6

Last hand for this blog. This hand is so much easier to play oop when I 3bet preflop. Again this is a very aggressive villain that barrels a lot. 30/22 3.4 AF over 600 hands. But, I think based on what I have seen from him, I should just be getting this in preflop for value, his 4bet range is 5.4% and I think he would snap get it in on the flop with top pair against anything (including my possible overpair).

Hero ($50)
BB ($58.70)
UTG ($65.62)
UTG+1 ($10.45)
CO ($87.85)
BTN ($75.79)

Dealt to Hero J J

fold, fold, CO raises to $1.75, fold, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

FLOP ($5.25) 5 5 3

Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets $5.25, Hero calls $5.25, BB folds

TURN ($15.75) 5 5 3 Q

Hero checks, CO bets $15.75, Hero calls $15.75

RIVER ($47.25) 5 5 3 Q 2

Hero checks, CO bets $47.25, Hero calls $27.25 (AI)

CO shows A A
(Pre 81%, Flop 91.6%, Turn 95.5%)

Hero shows J J
(Pre 19%, Flop 8.4%, Turn 4.5%)

CO wins $98.25


I will just save all the set over set and KK all in preflop vs my opponents AA (happened a lot) hands as I would never play them any different.

Play well. Do good work. Keep in touch.

PFJ