Thanks for the support, BigLeoser and Badonk, in my previous emo blog post. I really felt like getting right to work. So I had some lunch, did some housework and settled back into it. Here is the type of post I should be making, imo:

NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer

SB ($24.75)

BB ($26.21)

UTG ($25.22)

UTG+1 ($29.98)

Hero ($25)

BTN ($42.91)



Dealt to Hero A T


UTG raises to $0.85,
fold,
Hero calls $0.85,
BTN calls $0.85,
fold, fold



FLOP ($2.90) Q A 5



UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50



TURN ($7.40) Q A 5 3



UTG checks, Hero bets $3.75, BTN folds, UTG calls $3.75



RIVER ($14.90) Q A 5 3 Q



UTG checks, Hero bets $7.75, UTG calls $7.75



UTG shows A J
(Pre 69%, Flop 80.4%, Turn 86.4%)


Hero shows A T
(Pre 31%, Flop 19.6%, Turn 13.6%)



UTG wins $28.90

Here is a hand I played where I was a bit lost on the river.

Villain is unknown after just 7 hands. I am going to assign him a fairly tight range of:

{55+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo}

since a lot of people at this limit are limping 22-44 utg preflop. Including them doesn't change my equity that much anyway.

My equity vs. this range is 40% preflop. Right away we can see this is a marginal call. The BTN behind me is 40/8, and while I would like to see a multiway pot with a suited Ace, I think the fact that I don't have position overrides the fact that I am suited and it is multiway.

When the flop comes:

Q A 5

things are looking good as my equity vs. his opening range shoots up to 58.3%, however, we need to refine his range by his actions, and when he bets oop into two other people, I think villain's range looks more like this:

{QQ+,55,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo}

and my equity is now 37%, mostly because I am beating out KQ. Also, I haven't taken into account the BTN range here, and he didn't make it to showdown so I am not sure what he had, but let's give him a range, too, to see how drastically my equity drops. If we give him a preflop range of: {TT-22,AQs-A2s,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A2o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o}, then he calls the flop with:

{AcTc} 31%
{QQ+,55,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo} 52.6%
{TT-66,AJs-A6s,A4s-A2s,KTs+,Kh9h,Kh8h,Q9s+,J9s+,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h,AJo-A6o,A4o-A2o,KTo+,Q9o+,JTo} 16.4%

It doesn't take a huge equity dip since BTN range is so weak and he calls with a lot of worse aces and gutshots and fd type hands. I am assuming he raises sets and two pair here. All the same, I am definitely a dog in this scenario.

When the turn comes: Q A 5 3

and villain checks, we can alter his range a little bit and take out AQ and 55 as well as AK and 2 hearts.

{KK,AcJc,AdJd,AsJs,AcTc,AdTd,AsTs,KcQc,KdQd,KsQs,AJo,KQo}
My equity shoots up to 54%, so I bet here, IP and likely with the best hand.

Perhaps this is not the best play though. First of all, what does villain call that bet with? The only thing left in his range are Aces that beat me or KQ with no hearts. I think he probably folds KQ and that leaves hands that beat me. At this point, maybe I am trying to get value from the call station behind me, but if I just check the turn, he probably checks almost all of his range here, which I am way ahead of. If I do bet, and I want to fold out something better, I would have to bet more than half pot.

On the river, I have 43% equity if I include Kings, but maybe they fold too. Really the only option is to check behind. My river bet can be read in so many ways: A busted FD, a worse Ace and very rarely a Q. I almost checked, but figured I could fold out AJ or AK in this spot, but it would take more than a half pot bet to do that considering how villain likely sees my range.

This all adds up to me not being able to defend ATs vs. an UTG opener. Against villains known to open wider utg, and I mean with hands like A5s+, this could be alright. But if we assume a relatively tight UTG opening range (which I think I should with no reads), then this is a fold preflop, especially with a call station behind me.