I will save the blow by blow analyses, but feel the need to note that I suffered close to 6 BI in losses as pure coolers to a 45/21 maniac last night. We were 200bb deep, and usually I leave the table at 200bbs, but thought my edge was so thick I should stick around. Only down 3 BI on the night (tho my HEM says 4, it is only because I stacked the donk so quickly at the beginning of my second session that he was gone and the table closed before I even remembered to click the import HH button). I have been playing 31/25 so far this month, the majority of that upward pull coming from my last two days playing with opponents who were either weak/tight or maniacal. I am very impressed with myself at this moment, so I really need to be careful and get in some serious study and not get carried away with how awesome I think I am. I will post the bulk of my hand analyses in the days to come, but I wanted to post this one that I played last week and I discussed with Probability and Beans because it is giving me a lot to think about.


NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($68.95)
BB ($50)
UTG ($64.95)
UTG+1 ($67.50)
CO ($106)
Hero ($52.70)

Dealt to Hero 5 6

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.75, SB raises to $6, fold, Hero calls $4.25

When showing this hand to Probability, this is as far as I got. He said this is a fold every time. Beans brought up the point of reverse implied odds (if we were deep) and it was interesting to hear them discuss it. Basically the question is would you rather call with something like a suited connector (say 78s) and get yourself into a best case scenario of flopping a huge draw and getting it in on the flop (where you are basically flipping) against most people's 3bet ranges, or would you rather call with K9s? Everyone says K9s is easily dominated, but how often is the situation going to arise where you call with a K, your opponent bets with a K and a K hits the flop? As often as flopping a set? And how often will you flop a combo draw of some sort, or 2pair? Position and your hand reading abilities are a huge factor, obv, and adapting to your opponents' play. But what is better? I dunno really, but I think I need to come up with an answer. The results for this hand support the traditional arguments for SCs, but there are a couple of things to note. 1) I had just played a bvb hand with villain, or should I say MISplayed a bvb hand with villain where I showed a lot of aggression and took a weird line and got owned for around 30bbs in a really spewy way. 2) I had a fairly aggro image at the table. 3) Villain had been 3betting my BTN and CO opens fairly regularly, and I was considering leaving the table. I think if I didn't have an aggro image and had horribly misplayed a hand previously, I don't get the call on the river from the hand he had.

FLOP ($12.50) 6 5 6

SB bets $6, Hero calls $6

TURN ($24.50) 6 5 6 8

SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB calls $10

RIVER ($44.50) 6 5 6 8 3

SB checks, Hero bets $30.70 (AI), SB calls $30.70

Hero shows 5 6
(Pre 43%, Flop 99.4%, Turn 100.0%)

SB shows Q A
(Pre 57%, Flop 0.6%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero wins $102

Voila. I still think this is a fold most of the time, but I am struggling to put together a 3bet defense strategy for 100, 150, and 200bb stacks. It is an area that I think if I put together a strategy I will just be less anxious playing once I move up (where 3betting is a lot more common).

Play well. Do good work. Keep in touch.

PFJ