I will have to work out a title that is a little more snazzy if I want anyone to read this blog. I would like to write about something else in my life, but I have been a bit consumed by the memory of this hand and wanted to try to work out mathematically what I thought about how I played it. I am pretty sure I got everything right, but feel free to go over it with a fine tooth comb.


Hero ($67)
BB ($53.77)
UTG ($47.70)
UTG+1 ($43.85)
CO ($80.85)
BTN ($49.25)

Dealt to Hero 9 A

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $5.75, fold, BTN calls $4

FLOP ($12) Q 2 8

Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

TURN ($24) Q 2 8 7

Hero checks, BTN bets $14, Hero raises to $55.25 (AI), BTN calls $23.50 (AI)

RIVER ($99) Q 2 8 7 7

BTN shows T T
(Pre 69%, Flop 82.8%, Turn 75.0%)

Hero shows 9 A
(Pre 31%, Flop 17.2%, Turn 25.0%)

BTN wins $95.50

Villain is 27/19

Preflop Analyses:

First let's deal with the 3bet sizing. I 3bet to 3.25x his pfr. I am risking 11.5 bb to win 5 bb (his pfr size plus the SB and BB), so I need this to work 70% of the time to break even (11.5+5=16.5 and 11.5/16.5=.6969), and Villain has to defend 30% of his opening range to not be exploited (natch).

If I 3bet bigger, say 4x his pfr size, $7 or 14bb, then i am risking 14bb to win 5bb, and I need this to work 73% of the time to break even (14+5= 19 and 19/14=.7368) and Villain has to defend 27% of his opening range to not be exploited.

If I 3bet smaller, say to $5 (2.85x his pfr size), then I am risking 10bb to win 5bb, and I need this to work 66% of the time to break even and villain has to defend 36% of his opening range not to be exploited.

With the initial look at the numbers, it seems like 3betting the smallest amount is the most effective as it requires him to defend a wider part of his range (which will be more difficult), however we need to take into account that we are laying better odds for him to call with a smaller 3bet as well.

Let's assume 100bb stacks for the following analyses.

In scenario 1, he needs to call 8bbs to play a 24.5bb pot. So he is getting 1:3
Scenario 2, the larger raise size, makes him call 10.5bb to play a 29.5bb pot, or 1.05:2.95
In scenario 3, he needs to call 6.5bbs to play a 21.5 bb pot, or 1:3.3

So, in scenario 1 and 2, we are offering pretty much the same odds, but we have a few advantages with the smaller raise size of the two choices in that we get to play a smaller pot out of position and we keep the pot to stack ratio bigger, which gives us more room to maneuver with our bet sizing on later streets (giving villain more room to fold, feel less committed to the pot, etc). Let's look at those ratios:

Scenario 1: Pot is 24.5bb, Remaining stacks are 88.5bb, or 1:3.6
Scenario 2: Pot is 29.5bb, Remaining stacks are 87bb, or 1:3.0


Now let's look at the flop and my bet sizing as the hand played out and the equity for my hand:

I think villains 3bet calling range from the BTN pre flop is:

QQ-77,AQs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo. My equity is 39.6% against this range. However on a Qs2c8c flop, my equity is only 15%


The pot is 24bbs and I bet 12. On a dry flop like this, I think this is ok. I am probably folding out smaller PPs, sometimes AK, and sometimes JJ,TT and 99.

Villain calls and the pot is now 48bbs. We each have 75bbs left, effectively, and I have picked up more equity with another spade. I think villain's range for calling my flop bet is:

QQ-99,AQs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo (I included AK, JJ, TT, and 99 because villain is somewhat of a call station) My equity is now 25%. I check, villain bets 28bbs making a 76bbs pot and leaving himself 47 bbs. By shoving, it costs me 75bbs to win a 200bb pot or 1:2.6 and I am just on the -EV side of this equation (I need to be getting 1:3 with 25% equity). I probably have fold equity here as well, but the line looks kind of fishy and this is probably not the folding type of player. Also, by letting villain choose the bet size, I am letting him lay the odds to hit my draw. Clearly this was not the best way to play the hand.

I think the solution starts with my flop bet size. If I bet slightly more than 1/2 pot, say 15bbs, then on the turn the pot will be 54bbs and we each have 72bbs left. Then I definitely need to bet when I turn extra equity with my Nut Flush Draw, and I need to bet the amount that allows me to call a shove by villain.

If I bet 2/3 pot (half my remaining stack, 36bbs) and villain shoves, I need to call 36bbs to win 200bbs and I am easily priced in at 1:5.5

If I bet 1/2 pot (just over 1/3 of my remaining stack, 27bbs) and villain shoves, I need to call 45bbs to win 200, or 1:4.4 and I am still priced in.

I think the ideal bet sizing is in between, maybe closer to the larger of the two. First of all, I am not sure what kind of FE a 1/2 pot bet has. I want to fold out made hands that are ahead of me like JJ, TT, 99 and possibly KQ. Also, I don't have 25% equity against the hands that shove. Against QQ, AQ and let's include 77, 88, I have closer to 18% equity, maybe 20 if he spazzes with AK or something. So having that 1:5.5 cushion makes this a comfortable all in call. If villain folds, beautiful. If he, perplexingly, calls, and I don't hit any of my outs, I can c/f the river knowing I am beat.

This is the type of work away from the tables I am planning on putting in come January, and this is my first foray into it. I am going to be posting two or, optimistically, three of these hands per week. I need a lot of help with ranges, I think. I will post this in the forums, too, so feel free to weigh in wherever you come across this hand.


Hero ($120)
BB ($100)-----Villain is 31/12 250 hands
UTG ($19.45)
UTG+1 ($53.50)
CO ($55.85)
BTN ($76.54)

Dealt to Hero K 6

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

FLOP ($3) 6 T K

Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50

TURN ($8) 6 T K 8

Hero bets $6, BB raises to $14, Hero calls $8

RIVER ($36) 6 T K 8 7

Hero checks, BB bets $36, Hero


When Villain is 31/12:

Preflop, his calling range is:

TT-22,AQs-A2s,KJs-KTs,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,AQo-A8o,KJo-KTo,QTo+,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,87o

On the flop, his calling range is:

TT,66,AQs-ATs,A6s,KTs+,QTs+,J9s,97s+,87s,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QJo,J9o,97o+,87o

On the turn, his raising range is:

TT,66,KTs,J9s,97s,KTo,J9o,97o

Once I narrow his range on his turn raise (and I think I was pretty generous with this range--KT probably raises on the flop, J9 probably calls another bet trying to get there on the river) I am a 2:1 dog. Take out J9 and KT, and I am 9:1. Against this player, I think my bet on the turn gets value from very little. KQ, KJ, QJ (and considering I have blockers to two of those hands, it is even less). I think T8 folds on the flop. I am not folding out better 2pair hands or sets. It might be better to c/c and let him bluff the turn with a missed draw or Kx--I think he is aggressive enough to do this--However I think I miss value from 1 pair hands or draws that will just check behind.

On the River when the 7h hits and he pots it, he is really saying he has a 9 of some sort. I don't think he pots it with a set or 2pair that I beat(78?) or top pair on such a connected board. And so this is a fairly easy fold.

I would like to look at this hand against a different villain, say, if Villain is a more taggish reg (18/15 or so):

Villain's range preflop is:

99-22,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-AJo,KJo+,QJo

Villain's range for calling a flop bet is:


TT,66,AQs-AJs,KTs+,QJs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo-AJo,KJo+,QJo

Here I debated if he raises a set on the flop or not. There is no flush draw, the board is not bone dry, but it doesn't scream connected (it is pretty deceptively connected, though, especially when you consider a 32/12 range). I am also not sure if he chases gutshots with AJ and AQ. I think he most likely does call one bet IP with these hands, though, to see if I bet the turn or not.

The turn is much more scary for this type of villain as his range is more weighted towards broadway cards and not middling connectors or one-gappers. The fact that he is not playing very many, if any, offsuit middle connectors really balloons his range combinatorically to the broadways. He can only continue with a set which he will be raising. I think it is better to c/c here on the turn because his range that he calls/raises a bet with probably has me beat fairly handily and I fold out a lot of worse hands or draws. In fact, because I have a K and there is a K on the board, it is unlikely I am getting value from KJ or KQ with a bet because there are just not many other combinations of them. So when I check the turn and he bets, his range is either a set (3 combinations of 66, 3 combinations of TT), a better two pair (KT--only 4 combinations since I hold the Kh) or a draw. All of the draws in his range either missed completely (QJ, AQ, AJ) or are sitting with a pair and a gutshot (T9, 89, 87).

Don't know what to call this blog, and the topics vary widely, so I will just list away to get caught up.

1. Had a Merry Christmas with the family. Actually, despite being sick and working a lot at the restaurant the past two weeks, I really enjoyed myself this holiday season with all the cookie and fruitcake making, holiday lights, holiday parties, holiday shopping, holiday everything.

2. Have played very little poker or even thought much about it. I have just been too busy between working and making family holiday memories. That will all change this week though.

3. Looking forward to poker again. I am currently putting together my business plan-like document to keep me on track for the next three months. I am trying to be as detailed as possible, which takes a while, but will make it easier for me on the accountability side of things. I am trying to not let it lapse into some kind of fantasy about how much work I will be able to do...

4. My brother Roy, currently stationed in Iraq, was promoted from Captain to Major in the U.S. Marine Corp. I don't think it officially goes through for a couple of months, but ooh-rah Major Miner. We used to joke about this particular rank with our last name when we were kids, but don't let it ruin your sense of accomplishment.

5. Working on New Year's Eve. I am actually closing the bar New Year's Eve, and opening it on the 1st, go figure. Maybe I will just spend the night.

6. Oddly, I felt like I had a lot more interesting things to write about, but can't come up with them. So much has happened over the past few weeks, it is probably crazy to try and catch up with it all, so I will just wrap things up right here with a promise for better and more regular blog posts in 2010 (this is seriously part of my plan).

Happy New Year everyone.

Play well. Do good work. Keep in touch.

PFJ

Since my last session with Matt, I had played very well up until this weekend. I had two sessions where I started well enough and inexplicably spewed a buy in or two. Perhaps getting owned set over set and full house over full house (by an 86/22 no less) had something to do with it, but I think the real answer is that I just shouldn't be playing this time of year. I am currently working an extra 15 hours per week at the restaurant, which doesn't sound too bad until you factor in that they are 15 adrenaline filled, move as fast as you can, highly stress filled hours. I just think I have very little reserves of patience left for poker. So I doubt I will be playing much until after Christmas, maybe just 20 mins or so a day to keep my mental game intact. I will however be active in the forums and do some other away from the table poker work.

Monday was a long day for me, and I went to work with Matt after my shift at the restaurant. The winning formula is for me to make a video of me playing for 45 minutes, and then we go through it and talk about it. Not a lot happened in my playing session, imo, but we managed to talk for about 3 hours and I was again given a good look at what level I need to be thinking at. Here is one hand that provoked a lot of discussion and I hope is illustrative of what I mean:

(I don't have the HH as I was playing on his comp)

I open KTcc UTG 3.5bbs
MP calls, everyone else folds.
Flop is Ad7h9d pot is 9bbs
I check, MP checks.
Turn is Th.
I bet 6bbs, MP calls
River is 2c.
I check, MP checks, I win the pot, MP mucks (never found out his hand)

When we review this, Matt says it is a pretty loose open UTG. I agree, and the only reason I think I open it is because I was involved in another fairly big hand at another table (funny what you see reviewing your own videos). Matt says cbetting this flop is ok because we fold out things like 22-66, but doesn't completely fault me for checking. For the record, I am trying to reign in my oop cbetting when I miss because I think I am spewing too much. I am spewing too much because I am not accurately analyzing flops, imo, so I should really work on that. Anyway, after the MP checks, Matt starts asking me a lot of questions like what does he do with his FD here, what about a straight draw or pair and a gutshot. Does he have A2 here? I have very few answers but we manage to muddle through the flop. The video plays and he sees me bet the turn. He says he likes it and asks me why I bet. I say that I think I have the best hand now. Matt points out to me that I had very few solid answers on the flop and could not rule out specific hands before, and then it hit me. He is asking for a lot of specific info and thinks in those terms. I am currently much more of an instinctual player. Here is how I was thinking: "That is a really connected flop and I don't have anything. I am not betting, he will probably take it down right here with a bet. Wow, he didn't bet, he must not have anything strong either. Ha ha! Now I have 2nd pair, king kicker. I think I will bet and hope to get called by a draw or maybe a worse pair. Ok he called and must have something. River is a blank, I don't think I get called by anything I beat if I bet, I will just check....Oh look, AQ on another table." Matt, however, is thinking a lot more specifically. I said something like he takes a players range, takes out his knife, and just slices sections out of it as the hand continues and he gets more information until he knows the most profitable play to make. After I said that, he assured me that he makes some really spewy plays too. I am sure there are people who break things down even more, too. I recall one of the hands K-man played at the end of his first video where he said something after a big river push by his opponent like "...here he is representing a flush, but I really just can't think of what suited hand he gets to the river with" and he named a few that would have folded on the flop or turn. Then he called the shove and won an $800 pot or something like that. All the information is right there, you just have to know how to perceive it and then know what to do with it.

On the drive home, I remembered something I read in Shootaa's blog. "The conclusion I came to is that poker is like an art to me and if the game isn't played for the game's sake, things are going to get all mixed up in your head and you're much more likely to get smoked." I have very strong feelings about Art and what is Art and what is not Art but a skill. All the same, I am beginning to view poker as a kind of Technical Art. Like when I was in Junior High School, and they called wood shop "Industrial Arts". Or the way Math or Physics can become really creative in the hands of someone who really knows them inside and out. How Einstein said he would sit around and imagine things like how the world would look travelling at the speed of light, and then work out the mathematical side of it afterwards ("Art and Physics" by Leonard Shlain, great book, totally changed the way I thought about Physics and Science in general). Or how a Chef spends so many years learning very technical things about cooking, how to handle his knife, work with dough, how hot the pan should be before adding the butter, and yet no one can deny certain dishes a talented chef creates are imaginative, inspired works of great Art. Taking apart a villain's range action by action is really a mental science, and your mind needs to be sharp for you to do it. The more specific you can be, the sharper your mind is, the better.

It has given me a lot to think about these past few poker free days. I thought about what I am going to have to do when Matt is in Thailand. How I can advance my game on the technical side, what kind of work habits I will need to have and where I need to go with my game. I got home at around 2:30am after my session with Matt, and the next morning came early with my kids shouting and crying and spilling their cereal and not wanting to brush their teeth. The previous night and the thoughts I had seemed so far away. It almost seemed like it wasn't real or some kind of alternate bizarro-world universe where I got to talk about Math and work on using my powers of deduction. It was very strange, and I will confess to daydreaming about the future, about working as an actor on stage for very little money while playing poker to support my family (I am trying not to spend too much time daydreaming like that, because I work less diligently on my poker and tend to auto pilot), and experiencing that same kind of disconnect. That same kind of secret life. Thinking this is how it might be for me.

Play well. Do good work. Keep in touch.

PFJ

I had another tough session with Probability on Monday night. He was sweating me and asking me questions and I had some fairly vague answers. He said he expected a little more specificity after all these months (totally correct) and then had me make a video which we then reviewed together. It was super useful, and made his point perfectly clear that I have in fact fallen into the habit of auto piloting. I was thinking at the time "wow, how upsetting to find out I am not as good of a player as I was two months ago when I was thinking a lot more deeply about the game." But, after calming down a little bit, I realized that just because I play poorly doesn't mean I am a bad player. I just have to fix the problem. All the same, it is a little unsettling how easily I slid into lazy playing, and I was more than a little curious how I got myself into that position. Also, I think I can make better use of Matt's time than having him function as an external watch dog for the amount of effort I am putting into poker. That should be my job.

I think there are a number of factors that got me back to this point, and normally I wouldn't go into them, except that I am sure there are other players who might possibly read this blog that have the same problem.

First of all, I have always done well in a structured environment. School, the work place, it didn't matter, as long as there was some structure to lay out the guidelines of what I needed to do to be successful, then I could flourish. Poker is a little bit different, however, in that it is entirely self-modulated. Sure Leggo offers a lot of tools and a lot of companionship in this regard, but really, no one is forcing anyone to do anything, so you have to be motivated to really succeed. I don't expect a coach to take that role either. I have always known this about myself, and it was one of the things that made me doubt if I had what it took to be a poker player. All of this makes me think that some sort of Mission Statement or Business Plan would be in order. Obviously I need something external from myself to hold myself accountable to, and maybe a well thought out Plan would help. It would also help me figure out exactly why I play poker or what I hope to accomplish with it. I know the answer, of course, but it is still a little vague in my head and I think setting it down in writing would help.

Also, the fact that I was playing a lot and answering HH somewhat made me think that I had a very profound misunderstanding of what a pro poker player (or in my case, semi-pro poker player) does. Namely, playing poker and answering HH in the forums. Of course they do that, but that isn't all they do, and that doesn't speak to why they do it. It is almost as if a part of me thought that by engaging in these actions, that was enough. That would get me by and to the next limit. I was "working hard." In fact, a professional poker player does far more than what I listed, and they do those things for a purpose, which is to learn more about the game and implement that knowledge into their play. I think a lot of people out there think this way, knowingly or not. And instead of looking to improve their game, they are looking to feel better about themselves for engaging in their actions. Maybe they do the things they see other successful players do, incorporating things they see in videos into their game plan "cut and paste" style. I knew all of this three months ago, and I took steps to better my game and I had very positive results. Last month I was break even, and I don't think it should take me a month to realize I am not improving my game and just auto piloting. That can get awfully expensive if you rely on some or all of your poker income to support yourself.

Maybe having something I could refer to on a daily basis and use as a standard to evaluate my actions would be helpful. If anyone has written or tried to write a Business Plan for poker, let me know what kind of things you used to write it.

Play well. Do good work. Keep in touch,

PFJ

On Tuesday, I went over to Probability's place for our weekly session. We started by going over my biggest winners and losers for the last 15 days. Man was that brutal. There were a lot of bright spots in the winning hands, for sure. But I was very uncomfortable sitting next to the person who is giving me so much of his time for my own betterment and looking at hands that I butchered beyond belief in ways that even left me aghast. It was a real poker slaughterhouse, with offsuit connectors and silly flop raises with air scattered about the killing floor like offal. I also had to admit that I have not been as active in the forums as I would like to have been. I answered a good amount of posts, but I only posted one hand (that day as it turns out).

So with renewed vows to work hard, I have been very active in the forums for the past few days, and will even overcome my shyness and post some of my own hands. Also I am not folding to enough 3bets and trying to outplay people in 3bet pots. I am just gonna tighten tighten tighten my range when facing 3bets. I doubt anyone at 50nl is going to be able to exploit me by 3betting me enough, so this seems like a common sense approach to plugging that leak. The last thing is that I think I am losing money playing out of position. So I am going to continue with my tighter UTG and MP ranges, but just cbet a lot less. Also, if I had just folded more, I would have had a pretty sweet month instead of a just over break even month, so I plan to do a lot more of that in questionable spots. I think I talk myself in to making a lot of calls or raises with very questionable reads even though those actions fly in the face of all solid factual evidence.

Play well. Do good work. Keep in touch.

PFJ

The results for my first complete month as a Semi-Pro are in. Before I blather on about it, here is the graph:




14.5k hands is a little weak, but I am playing 3 tables at the most at the moment, and frequently 2 tables. I posted the graph in big blinds to even out the $ side of things from playing different limits. I can definitely identify certain points in the month where I was playing too loose or on tilt or playing well. I can also identify when my studying and posting in the forums tapered off. On the bright side, I am playing fairly aggressively for small pots, pots on dry boards, and limped pots (hence the red line) and I think that is a big positive for me. I will have to learn to fold a little more frequently and not be paranoid that people are "playing back at me."

On the whole, I am fairly disappointed in my results and my performance. I underestimated the added pressure of being dependent on poker as income, and I didn't do the things I had told myself to do to proactively relieve that pressure. I also think it is peculiar that I told myself at the beginning of the month that I would be fine with rakeback and bonuses financially speaking, even if I broke even on the month in terms of my winnings. And wouldn't you know it, that is pretty much what happened. It is almost as if I set the bar low from the outset and just barely cleared it.

December will be tough on me, I think. The good news is that I will be busy at the restaurant and most likely pulling in enough extra money so that I don't have to pull any out at the end of the month. So my winnings from poker can directly pad my bank roll so I can move up to 100nl sooner. The bad news is that I will have less time to play for that same reason, and even when I do have time, I think I will be stressed or tired or whatever and I need to be very careful about playing my best and not spewing chips all over the place. Also, Matt leaves for Thailand in early January and it will be my last month to soak up his knowledge for a while. So maybe January will be filled with pressure, too.

The really bright spot in all of this is, and I should keep this in mind, that I can definitely beat the game. I have learned so much in the last two months it makes me laugh a little bit to myself. I just feel like I have it in me and can eventually make it to 400nl for sure. Making it to 100nl will make a big difference in my life. 200nl means a big sigh of relief and a lot more freedom. 400nl and I can really live the life I want to with my family and my theatrical aspirations. There will be a lot of hard work ahead, though, and I will try to stay focused on that.

Play well. Do good work. Keep in touch.

PFJ

Hope y'all had a happy Thanksgiving. My family celebrated the night before at my father-in-law's house. My son said he was thankful for peanut butter. My daughter said she was thankful for Christmas. (She added her family and the color red with a little prompting.) We had turkey, ham and duck. Thanksgiving day itself, we had a mellow morning and I went into work around 2pm. It was super easy and not crazy busy at all. My first table apologized for me having to work on Thanksgiving. I didn't want them to feel bad their whole meal through, so I told them I celebrated the night before and just did some laundry earlier that day. I think they felt a little less guilty, and they tipped 20% to boot. Ship the extra income on the week. Also any fear I had about being in trouble with management for something I didn't do evaporated when they offered me an extra shift per week during the holidays. I feel much better about my financial prospects this holiday season. I probably won't play as much, but that is ok, because it brings me to the real subject of my blog post, tilt.

Sunday night I ran super hot and happened to have a very spewy player at three of my tables. I made 7 BI in around 550 hands. I was just hitting lots of flops and turns, and I had a really good read on the donk. I was super excited to have padded my bank roll so efficiently. I not only thought about moving up to 100nl sooner than later, but I spent a lot of time that night and the next day daydreaming about where I wanted my life to go and how being successful at poker would help. The next night, Monday, I had scheduled myslef to study and maybe play a little, 2 tabling HUDless. I started answering HH in the forums, but was a little dissatisfied as there weren't a lot of new posts in the micro forums. I dedcided I would play. I was soon up to three tables, and you can probably guess the rest. At the end of my session I had lost everything I made the night before almost to the dollar. Did I run really bad? Yes. Did I tilt? Yes. Did I play my best? No. At the end of it all, I would have to chalk up 2.5 BI to tilt and the rest was just bad luck. I probably made a few spewy turn calls, too. I usually have a 5 BI stop loss point, but I felt most of my losses were as a result of bad luck so I didn't check to see how I was doing during my play (I try not to). When I checked my results though, I felt suddenly sick in my stomach. The next day I was distracted and a little grumpy. My mind wandered to my session the night before. I was filled with doubts about my abilities. I questioned the future I had thought about only 24 hours before. I didn't play or do anything poker related for a few days and I tried to gain a sense of perspective.

After my relatively short semi pro poker career, it seems like the biggest most pressing issue facing me is my ability to control my tilt. I think it would be irresponsible of me to continue playing without addressing this directly. I have long talked about meditation and how it helps me play evenly and make good decisions. It's effects are usually immediate and profound. Yet, the most I seem to be able to put together is a week or two of regular meditation before tapering off. Getting in "enough" hands always seems to take precedence. But after this month, it is easy to see how a little more work on having the right mindset while playing (whether I am winning or losing money) would more than pay for itself over the long run in terms of my winrate. I committed myslef to playing HUDless at my coach's urging, and it payed off in a lot of unexpected ways even though it was very difficult for me and I had serious doubts if it would really work out for me. I turned out to be the defining moment in my poker career so far. I think I should just commit to meditating in the same way. I did the HUDless challenge for a little over a month, but I think tilt is going to be much harder to master unless I set up some serious work habits. So, I will just have to disallow myself from playing poker unless I have meditated that day. Say for 20 minutes. Also, I am going to recommit to playing HUDless Monday-Thursday and only playing two tables (and ideally working on some specific aspect of my game.) I will try this out until Valentine's Day. Hopefully I will be at 100nl by then, but I suppose that is being fairly results oriented.

I think by controlling winner's tilt, I am also winning the battle of recipricocity that I wrote about in my previous blog. This can be one area where others are tilting off a portion of their big winnings to me but I am not doing the same back to others. I was very happy to have won 7 BI, and that made losing money just as emotionally charged.

I was pretty down on myself for a long time after that big losing session. And sometimes I think I will run head first into every major pitfall there is in poker no matter how good my mentor is (and he is really good and kind and understanding and all that stuff and I don't mind saying I had a little thankful thought for him on Thursday). I think what will separate me from other players is how quickly and efficiently I act to overcome these obstacles. It is easy to get lulled into a sense of comfort. Especially when you are winning. It is easy to read about the kind of money and lifestyle that the top pros have and get distracted by that because you think that you can do it too because you belong to the same poker training site (and because they commented on your blog or something). I just have to keep working on my game, that's all. And the part that is glaringly bad doesn't have a lot to do with how much I have learned about poker in the past few months or how much there is to learn about the game.

Maybe if I considered tilt as part of the game I would be better off. I take advantage of players I think are on tilt all the time. Why would I think they aren't doing the same to me? Maybe your tilt level is just as important as your cards because your skill edge is fairly small and it can be obliterated, turned on its head if you are tiltng. Hmmmmm.

That's all for now. I wanted to write some more about my "winrate" and how difficult it is mathematically to really calculate that, but I will save it for another time.

Play well. Do good work. Keep in touch.

PFJ

Last week I had a session with Matt where I played this hand:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($89.50)
BB ($169)
Hero ($172)
UTG+1 ($79.16)
CO ($104)
BTN ($155)

Dealt to Hero Q K

Hero raises to $3.50, fold, CO calls $3.50, fold, fold, BB calls $2.50

FLOP ($11) 9 J T

BB checks, Hero bets $8, CO calls $8, BB folds

TURN ($27) 9 J T T

Hero bets $19, CO raises to $92.50 (AI), Hero folds

CO wins $61.50

He explained that by folding I would be winning the recipricocity war. That because I don't stack off to a full house when I have a straight my winrate goes up because the people I play with will pay that off. To be honest, I was just going to bet and bet until it was all in, I wasn't thinking about what cards were good or terrible on the turn. I was really pissed to have to fold. I thought he would have raised a set on the flop, but Matt thought he just wanted to keep the BB in the hand (who was a huge donk).

I trust it was the right play, and after thinking about what he said for the next couple of days, and it really changed my play. I was finding the courage to make folds that I couldn't make before and happy about the money I was making by folding.

I had one serious tilt attack and was essentially breaking even on the month because of that and playing too laggy at the beginning of the month. I think this was mostly due to me being semipro for the first time and, uh, well, the money really mattered and I wasn't really making any, at least not enough. So in the beginning of the month, I played loose and really chased money (which worked for a while) and when I didn't win or got drawn out on especially, I really got upset and just overplayed marginal situations and hands.

The good news is I have got that under control. The bad news is I paid off a full house with a nut flush and felt like I should have folded the river. One issue at a time I guess. My graph this month really does look like an EKG graph.

I will defer to a bullet point system to deliver the rest of the news in my life because it has been a while.

* Started to potty train my youngest. I hope to have changed my last diaper by the spring.

* While I haven't had my final meeting with my manager yet, my 3 month probation period is up and I am sure I have accomplished the goal of getting along with my coworkers better. Just destroyed that goal, really.

* Tiltingly enough, two of my coworkers and myself were accused of doing something very bad and very stupid. Something that none of us in a million years would ever do. Seems like a bad idea to get into the specifics of it here, but there is a small chance someone will lose their job over this even though it is almost impossible to know what exactly happened.

* The restaurant where I work is open on Thanksgiving for the first time in 6 years. We will be having Thanksgiving dinner with my in-laws the day before, and I am not sure what to expect as far as my Thanksgiving shift--I am waiting tables and not bartending because they need so many people to work. We are booked solid, so at least I will make some money.

* We are starting to compost at home. (I actually have a lot to say about this and why it is such a good thing to do, but it would be breaking with the bullet point format.)

* Looks like I will be volunteering in my daugher's Kindergarten class a few hours a week for the first two weeks in December.

* Eye surgery for my son on December 8th.

* My restaurant is starting to get very busy and I am pulling in money hand over fist on the weekends. Partly this is because we are understaffed and there are just not as many people to share the money with. The downside is that we are definitely not deliverng the level of service that we previously had. My shifts go by in a frenzied blur and I am very tired the next day. Hopefully we can pull together some more manpower because we really built our clientele on great service, and while I am happy to make the money short term, I think we are hurting ourselves in the long run.

* I had the opportunity to play poker on a Saturday night, and wow, how donktastic was that? I usually get in a decent number of hands during the day on Saturday, but the money just doesn't fly at you like it does at night.

* I continue to have faith in the basic goodness of all humanity.

* I continue to believe I am on the cusp of greatness.

I suspected I was playing too laggy. I had another session with Matt a few days ago and, based on some of his replies to HH I sent him (fold preflop, fold flop, why are you raising the turn...) I was indeed playing maniacally. Maybe it is possible to be lag and profitable, but I would need to know a lot more about poker to do it effectively. Also, the more I learn about poker, the less likely I will decide to play overly loose and overly aggressive. It works out ok at 50nl because most players are not capable of exploiting you, but it will get harder and harder the more you move up.

After looking at some hands Matt misplayed and talking about what his coach told him, we played some 50nl and 100nl. I played much more tighter and it was fairly anxiety free.

I had a long day yesterday. We started out with breakfast at my brother's to commemorate Veteran's day. He is a veteran, and I have another brother in Baghdad right now. Even though breakfast was early and we had a lot to do that day, I wanted to thank them for their service, so we went. Then we drove to the San Francisco and my son had an appointment with an eye specialist. He needs minor surgery to widen a very constricted tear duct that is blocked by some sort of membrane as well. We knew this ahead of time and had tried a lot of other options over the last 9 months, but it looks like surgery is the answer. Hopefully we will do the surgery next month because if the membrane starts turning into cartiledge, it will require a major surgery (which would be a lot for a 2-year old). Also, for health insurance reasons, if we do it before the end of the calendar year, our deductible doesn't reset, and so it will be cheaper for us. After that we went to my father-in-law's house in the city for dinner and drove home. I was too tired to play or study or whatever, so just watched a little TV with the wife and went to bed.

Today I plan on answering some HH in the forums, watching a video, and reviewing some hands from my session with Probability. I will need to play a little bit to cement my more taggish style in preparation for the weekend grind. I think I will go HUDless, too, to sharpen my observation skills.

I know this blog entry was slightly uninspired, but I haven't updated for a while and wanted to post something.

Play well. Do good work. Keep in touch.

PFJ