I stayed at home to watch the World Cup today. I just couldn't drag my kids out to watch it in a pub again, and it would have been harder to get a seat, I think, since the start time was later. It would have been nice to not have given up a goal in the first 5 minutes, and we were playing catch up the whole game. I was ecstatic when Donovan scored on the penalty kick, and the U.S. was looking strong for most of the second half, but Ghana came back and won it in extended time (again scoring in the first five minutes...). I was happy we just got out of the Group play, tbh, but really wanted to make it to the next round (and a show down with South Korea--also a loser in this round-- would have been perfect because our countries are such sporting rivals what with the Olympic speed skating and all).

Pretty swingy all in all. Yesterday I lost 3.5 BI in an hour running 3 BI under EV and was in a pretty foul mood. I won't be playing very much the next week, or even the next month due to some vacation plans with the family and a guest from overseas. I will be spending my poker time grinding out some analysis like the following hands (I tried to make it an easier format to read than my last post):


Hand 1

SB ($106)
Hero ($51.50)
[/color]CO ($55.95)
BTN ($40.50)

Dealt to Hero K 7

CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, Hero raises to $8, fold, fold, SB calls $6.50

Preflop, I like this squeeze coz the opener opens like 23% from the CO and folds often enough and the BtN is like 24/4 and folding pretty often too. SB is relatively new, but seems kind of bad. It is not a tragedy if he calls and I am IP.

FLOP ($19) 4 6 J

SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB raises to $30, Hero raises to $43.50 (AI), SB calls $13.50

I bet big for max fold equity, planning on bet/calling. I think I can count 3 outs for my K, and 9 for the flush draw. I have a backdoor straight draw, too, so probably like 50% equity. The minraise is puzzling, but I am pretty committed by my cbet sizing so I just get it in.

TURN ($106) 4 6 J 8

RIVER ($106) 4 6 J 8 4

SB shows J A
(Pre 63%, Flop 53.4%, Turn 65.9%)

Hero shows K 7
(Pre 37%, Flop 46.6%, Turn 34.1%)

SB wins $103

Hand 2

Same donk. I now know he is playing 56/25/1.9
Very tilting hand.


SB ($57)
BB ($10)
UTG ($32)
UTG+1 ($114)
Hero ($50)
BTN ($97.95)

Dealt to Hero A A

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $2

FLOP ($5.75) T K 3

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $4, UTG+1 raises to $8, Hero raises to $18.50, UTG+1 calls $10.50

I think I can 3bet a lot bigger here. Probably closer to $22. He is never folding a K (see the hand above) and I should make the draws pay.


TURN ($42.75) T K 3 9

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $29 (AI), UTG+1 calls $29

Maybe I would worry if he open shipped the turn, but once he checks this is an easy shove.


RIVER ($100) T K 3 9 K

UTG+1 shows K 2
(Pre 15%, Flop 21.2%, Turn 9.1%)

Hero shows A A
(Pre 85%, Flop 78.8%, Turn 90.9%)

UTG+1 wins $97.25

Hand 3

BtN is 64/12

Hero ($61.71)
[/color]BB ($11.94)
UTG ($34.40)
UTG+1 ($86.50)
CO ($55.22)
BTN ($23.21)

Dealt to Hero A K

UTG calls $0.50, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, fold, BTN calls $3

Standard preflop.

FLOP ($8) Q 4 4

Hero bets $4.50, BTN calls $4.50

I am meh on the cbet sizing. I think I can bet a lot bigger here since I have good equity against most of his calling range. It would make for an easier ship on any diamond, A, or K, J, or T turn.

TURN ($17) Q 4 4 5

Hero bets $53.71 (AI), BTN calls $15.21 (AI)

I am giving myself 15 outs here, and villain has only $15 left, so I think it is an easy shove because it is about break even by the numbers and at the time I thought that I could have some fold equity to boot. Later, though, considering villain's stats, I thought I could just check because I don't know what he folds here. If I check, he most likely checks behind without a made flush and it will be hard to get paid if I hit on the river.

RIVER ($47.42) Q 4 4 5 7

Hero shows A K
(Pre 60%, Flop 28.8%, Turn 31.8%)

BTN shows Q J
(Pre 40%, Flop 71.2%, Turn 68.2%)

BTN wins $44.57

Hand 4

Here is my one tilt hand of the day which I played shortly after getting rivered in Hand 2.
Villain has opened 3 of the 4 hands I have on him since sitting at the table.

SB ($54.40)
BB ($23.37)
UTG ($118)
CO ($93.80)
Hero ($54.25)

Dealt to Hero K Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, BB raises to $4.75, Hero calls $3.25

The problem is that he is so short. I should just be 4betting to get it in if I think he 3bets super light or folding. Even if he is 3betting and shoving with 99+, AQ+, and KQ+, I am only at like 32% equity. I call telling myself that if I hit a Q or a K, my play is easy. But really I was just in no mood to fold KQ.

FLOP ($9.75) Q 8 A

BB bets $9.75, Hero raises to $49.50 (AI), BB calls $8.87 (AI)

Well I hit my Q. I think I can just fold when he pots it, because I think he has an Ace or AQ or QQ almost always there, and not 99-JJ.

TURN ($46.99) Q 8 A 6

RIVER ($46.99) Q 8 A 6 K

BB shows Q A
(Pre 74%, Flop 98.1%, Turn 100.0%)

Hero shows K Q
(Pre 26%, Flop 1.9%, Turn 0.0%)

BB wins $44.19

I stopped playing after this hand, wisely I think.

Hand 5

This is a hand from the previous day.
Villain is 13/9, not a lot of hands on him.Two donks behind me.

SB ($100)
BB ($55.45)
UTG ($53.05)
Hero ($59.90)
CO ($25.17)
BTN ($82.37)

Dealt to Hero Q A

UTG raises to $2, Hero calls $2, fold, fold, fold, fold

Preflop, calling seemed to be the only decent play. Folding is too tight, 3betting probably not great as there are no better hands I fold out except smaller to medium pps. But those comprise maybe 35% of his possible opening combos.

FLOP ($5.35) A 5 5

UTG checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG calls $3.50

Maybe I could bet a bit bigger. When he c/c, I think he has JJ-KK and maybe AJ or AQ, although AQ is unlikely due to blockers.

TURN ($12.35) A 5 5 8

UTG checks, Hero bets $8, UTG calls $8

RIVER ($28.35) A 5 5 8 J

UTG checks, Hero checks

Maybe I can find a bet here, but I don't know. The one ace combo I thought I was ahead of gets there, and I didn't think that he had worse opening Aces in his range. Maybe he folds KK and QQ on the river, too, so what am I trying to get value from?

UTG shows 7 A
(Pre 29%, Flop 28.3%, Turn 14.8%)

Hero shows Q A
(Pre 71%, Flop 71.7%, Turn 85.2%)

Hero wins $26.45


Play well. Do good work. Keep in touch.

PFJ