Leggo Poker Every Tool You Need To Win

Running Good At Life

Jan
19
2012
Posted in Poker | View Comments (9)
 
If you're American (racist) and have been worried about putting money on Merge or have just had trouble getting money on (Western Union is never fun) then I'd like to stake you. If you're not from the US I'll still stake you. I've successfully staked a few people, the most notable is dougiedan678 when he first moved up to 100NL. 'm sure he'll vouch for me being easy to work with. My track record with staking is really good because I'm quite picky. I'm looking to invest about $5,000 to start so I can't stake higher than 200NL.

To apply please send the following information to probability@leggopoker.com. If you don't have all of the following, it's ok. Send what you have and give me a shout on Skype so we can talk about things.

PTR'able screen names

HEM screenshots

References



Limit and game type you want a stake for (10NL is the lowest limit I'll accept)

Expected monthly volume

Number of tables you play



And of course.... why do you want a stake?This does not have to be some epic essay. If you get staked it's not going to be because you romanced me with pretty words. Just a brief explanation which could be as simple as "I don't trust Merge" or "I don't have an easy way to get money on." Either one of those reasons work really well for me because I can transfer you money to start your roll and I do trust Merge.

skype: porkandbean
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Comments 9 | Post Comment » Probability is online now   
Dec
26
2011
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So I got a Mac about a week ago and I like it. Some programs I'm used to don't work on it or have inferior Mac version but I'm learning and coping. Another big issue has been my inability to order apps from the Apple store because my CC is American and I have a Thai IP. This has put a big hold on a couple projects I wanted to get started on right away.

Originally I was going to still use my Dell for poker stuff until I broke it today. When NBA League Pass was not working on Christmas I decided to stream the games from some random site. This, of course, got me infected with some search redirector. I tried a lot of stuff to regain control but in the end decided reformatting was probably best. I proceeded to move all the files I needed to keep into a single folder which I planned on transferring to an external hard drive before the reformat.

I ended up starting the reformat before moving any of my files (due to stupidity) and realized my error about one minute into the reformat process. I stopped the reformat immediately hoping I could still recover my data but was unsuccessful. Stopping the reformat also killed my computer and the only way to get it back is with a Windows install disc, which I don't have or want to have.

The only thing I have from my old computer is my passwords. That alone has made this disaster bearable. I have lost a few conversations with people in skype. I tend to have a million chat windows open so I might forget one or two people. If you are reading this wondering why I haven't responded to your skype message please recontact me. Sidebar: skype for Mac is not nearly as easy to use for me as it was on Windows. I really dislike how you can't have separate windows for each conversation.

Cliffs: If we were mid convo in skype or you were waiting to hear back from me on something hit me up because my computer died and I lost all my notes, files, and everything else.
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Comments 0 | Post Comment » Probability is online now   
Dec
15
2011
Posted in Poker | View Comments (6)
 
Quote:
Subject: Poker can now confirm that Full Tilt Poker and Groupe Bernard Tapie have executed an agreement to further the transfer of FTP’s assets to GBT. This agreement was necessary to pave the way for the US Department of Justice to take possession of the assets voluntarily being forfeited by Full Tilt.
http://www.subjectpoker.com/2011/12/ftp-gbt-agree/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29...ement-1139894/
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Comments 6 | Post Comment » Probability is online now   
Dec
10
2011
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Just wanted to stop in and say Leggo will officially be rolling out a variety of rakeback and VIP offerings across multiple networks at the beginning of 2012. I will be handling most of the customer service personally and will be your main contact if you get rakeback through LeggoPoker. A number of sites that no longer offer rakeback and often have confusing VIP schemes, however, Leggo is still able to increase the value of these programs.

By signing up through Leggo at a room where "all deals are standard" like Party or Pacific, you will get a completely free month of Leggo with no minimum rake requirement, all you have to do is deposit. After the first month it's easy to keep your free LeggoPoker subscription going indefinitely by raking only $150 a month. By using this very low rake target, significantly down from the industry standard of $500 a month, Leggo hopes to open up our free training promotion to all players. Leggo will also have private rake races on various sites which will add value to more serious players. It's interesting to note that casual players will find extra value in this system through the free training and those same casual players will be providing extra value to grinders by helping fuel the private rake races while not competing for the prizes. It's a win, win and does not cost players anything.

I'm certain Leggo will be an affiliate of choice for casual as well as professional players due to our unique ability to offer great value to both player groups. With very competitive deals across all networks and free training thrown in, Leggo is very hard to beat. Additionally, Leggo's system is very simple and will be heavily oriented towards customer service. There are no levels or tiers or dangling carrots. Sign up, get the very best deal possible, rake $150 a month and get free training thrown in. Boom.

Some poker rooms, as I touched on above, have standard, regulated deals in the form of VIP schemes. VIP schemes are often hard to understand and can be less preferable than flat rakeback for casual players or grinders who prefer to game select across various networks. Even the easy VIP schemes, especially on multi-skin networks, can be very time consuming to learn about. After spending the last few months learning about the different VIP schemes offered across various sites I've realized some skins can be better for certain players while they are often worse for others. Once Leggo's rakeback and VIP section is up and running their will be descriptions of each network and skin to help answer any questions, however, there is a lot of information and not all of it will be displayed. I encourage everyone who's unsure what the best network, skin, or promotion is best for their specific situation to contact me directly for more information.

All Leggo's offerings are ready to go, we're just waiting for the site to be finished. If you want to sign up at a new room or just have a question you want answered, lemme know. And now you know what the last few months of my life has been about - end update.

Skype: porkandbean
AIM: mattprobability
MSN: mattprobability@hotmail.com
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Comments 0 | Post Comment » Probability is online now   
Sep
30
2011
Posted in Poker | View Comments (20)
 
http://www.pokerstrategy.com/news/wo...reement_52195/

Quote:
"Full Tilt Poker and Groupe Bernard Tapie Sign Acquisition Agreement

Dublin, Ireland (September 30, 2011) Laurent Tapie, Managing Director of ‘Groupe Bernard Tapie’ announced today that the group has signed an exclusive agreement with the Board of Directors of Full Tilt Poker to acquire the company and all of its associated assets.

This agreement, which includes the repayment of Full Tilt Poker’s world-wide players in full, is subject to several conditions; the first of which is a favorable resolution with the United States Department of Justice. Discussions with the United States Department of Justice will begin immediately.

‘Groupe Bernard Tapie’ has over 30 years of experience in the salvation of financially distressed businesses, with over 40 companies acquired and managed to profitability, the most well-known being the sport equipment giant, Adidas."
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Comments 20 | Post Comment » Probability is online now   
Sep
01
2011
Posted in Poker | View Comments (1)
 
I got a PM from someone who will remain nameless saying they invested a small amount of money in GT and wanted to know my exit strategy so I wrote up a PM to further explain my feelings about the company. Please take all this with a huge grain of salt and don't invest in GT without doing your own research.

So I'm not sure how much you studied GTAT but they have 4 main product lines. The newest product is a monosilicate which will replace their polysilicate offering, basically re-reducing their offerings to 3.

This Mono stuff has a much higher efficiency than all Polys on the market at a cost that is not much higher at all. All the previous Poly Equipment GT sold can be upgraded to this new tech. So not only is GT creating an industry which people can enter, they are also creating upgrade options for anyone who has bought their Poly equipment. Other companies are (for the next few years at least) at an extreme disadvantage since GTAT is the only company with this high quality, low production cost, product offering. They aren't the industry leader, they are the industry.

The "CZ" thing on the graph is a type of product not in heavy use. Even though it's more efficient the cost to produce it makes it prohibitively expensive. DSS is Poly.



GTAT suggests this Mono business will generate $400 million in revenue per year starting at the end of 2013 at profit margins about equal to those they have with all their other products (40%+ gross margin). As a side note GT is able to get these high profit margins because their equipment is more efficient than what they call "copycat companies'.

In addition to Mono you have GT entering the LED market and SNAP getting 1bb in backlog from people who want their equipment. In addition to the accepted orders they are turning people away due to the inability to produce that many machines. This means the back log is high quality (the companies will def will pay for this round of equipment). GT also chose businesses that stand a very good chance of succeeding (will have to upgrade to more efficient LED equipment in the future). In total GT has over 2bb in backlog when you count all their offerings. Here is a slightly outdated graph. I think GT expects to be able to do almost 500mm a year in LED business. There will certainly be boom and bust cycles here so I don't think expecting 5mm a year until the end of time is realistic.





OK, so last years rev was like 900K and next years (we are almost half way in since GT does not run off the calender year) is supposed to be, and very, very likely will be, between 1 and 1.1 billion.



So you have a new business in LED that will generate somewhere above 500mm per year very easily and the LED industry is growing at a very fast rate. As costs go down it will just grow faster, additionally, lower costs are good fot GT!



Since GT is an equipment manufacturer it will not experience the issues that come from a commodity type business (actually selling the LED material), which their customers will, to our extreme benefit. GT's customers will have to upgrade again and again to keep up with costs.

GT is able to maintain it's profit margins by bringing superior equipment to market before anyone else. As a side note, by buying GT you are betting they will continue to out innovate everyone else, that's the big thing. Getting on with it... As far as I know you can't upgrade GT's stuff with non GT stuff, that's just a total guess though. The companies GT works with pick an equipment manufacturer and stick with them unless they want to re-outfit their entire business.

Next you have a new business (Mono) that will possibly generate 400mm a year starting in a year or so. No competition here, just a few years to crush and watch everyone squirm.

Then you have the PV business that will generate some amount of revenue. I think it was over 30% of rev for the last full year, so around 300mm. This is expected to drop quite a bit for the next year or so at least. This drop off is fully baked into any numbers GT has released.

OK, so the main issue is the solar industry is fucked right now. It's very much a boom and bust industry and right now it's fairly bust. Again, this is totally baked in to the numbers and estimates of GT. That's why you see solar companies with P/E's of less than 5. That and some of those solar companies are in the commodity side of the business, selling actual materials, with profit margins from 10% to less than 0% depending on the efficiency they are able to offer end users. Any profit they make will largely have to be reinvested in equipment upgrades to improve productivity and cut costs. This hugely benefits GTAT.

What I think will happen is a few things, depending on the timing they could all be a huge catalysts for GTAT.



* LED industry is growing, estimates put growth anywhere between 12% to over 20% a year, and the price of LED is rapidly approaching a point where it will be a sensible alternative for a lot of uses not only because of the inherent advantages but also because of price. Additionally there are more and more uses for LED's as time goes on, right now the next boom is coming from use in flat panel TV's and cell phones. There are also bans being placed on incandescent lighting in Asia and Europe, but not for 5 years or so.

* Solar industry will eventually rebound (and then bust again, lol). Interesting to note that a lot of the big players are turning this industry wide slowdown into an opportunity to increase productivity and lower costs (leading to GT still filling orders). This will force out smaller players that don''t have money or credit to upgrade and match new efficiency. Asian companies (where the majority of GT's business is, and the majority of solar business is in general) tend to operate at lower margins and also build excess capacity compared to other areas of the world, that's also good for GT but it does lead to these boom and bust cycles.

* GT's Mono offering will allow them to acquire new customers and probably sell as many machines as they can produce. They will also be able to convert all the Poly vmachines they sold into Mono machines.

* Cool side note is they have been working on getting their tax rates down and have done so pretty successfully. Over the next year or so it will probably drop another 2%-3%, which is sweet. They are doing this by building stuff in low tax areas and only keeping very new product offerings here in the states so the tech is not stolen.

I think within a year or two the landscape of the advanced tech industries will be much different, these are my hopeful assumptions.

* GT will be rocking in the LED business and generating over 500mm in rev a year.



* PV will generate some small amount...
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Comments 1 | Post Comment » Probability is online now   
Aug
30
2011
Posted in Poker | View Comments (7)
 
I'm not sure how much the overall market slid but I got owned pretty hard. Lost about 25% from the high water mark. If I had a do over I could have made a substantial amount of money, unfortunately I was 100% invested and unable to commit more funds.

On to the trades...

I bought a very small position in FLL, a company that runs indian casinos. I sold out losing 10% because I found a better value. FLL has since rebounded to my purchase price +8% and I might look at it again someday if it drops.

Besides that my only sale was my main holding VIFL. I sold at $6 (after buying at $5) and was very happy to see it drop to $4.65. I almost sold everything I owned to rebuy it but decided to wait it out for a few reasons a) VIFL is a little hard to get in and out of due to the size of the company, b) the other stocks I held we also in the process of rebounding and it was impossible to say what would go of first, c) I tend to shy away from moving my money around a lot because of the negative feelings I have regarding such short term trades. Needless to say VIFL has gone up about 40% in the last week from the lows I could have bought at.

Another huge error was not getting pre approved for unsecured options. I deposited 1K to buy GTAT calls when then stock was $10 per share with a strike price of $11. I think the options were $0.40 or something with the date you have to exorcise 9 months out (I'm not positive though). TBH I'm not even all that sure how options work, I just knew it meant leverage, and lots of it. Unfortunately my brokerage denied my application to trade unsecured options and GTAT has since risen back to $12.27. I think that means I would have done quite well and would still have about 8 months to watch the stock go up, which I feel it will. I also briefly looked at getting NEOP options when it was $1.60 although I;m not sure I could have pulled the trigger even if my brokerage let me... NEOP is now at $3.24 and still rising.

The main lesson I learned is you need to have cash sitting, waiting for stuff like that to happen. It would have had a significant impact on my results if I had 25% of my cash free.

Currently I own two stocks only.

GTAT is about 65% of my portfolio. I bought it around $12.50 and I'm only down about 10% on it now. I sent emails to my friends and family telling them to buy it but I don't think anyone listened to me. I still believe it to be free money and urge any friends or family members reading this to buy some.

NEOP makes up the remainder of my portfolio. The complete story of my NEOP holdings is me buying a bunch between $3-$4 and selling it at $5.50. Then NEOP started to get hammered and it dropped. I started buying again around $3.6 and kept buying as it dropped till I was out of money, at around $3.30 or something. FML for not realizing it could go so low and missing an even greater opportunity. I'm down just about 13% on NEOP (excluding the previous profit from it) but that shouldn't last long. I hope to see it hit $4.00 by the end of September and if (when!) the FDA approves the NDA (new drug application) it will go even higher.

If Lymphoseek is approved for use by the FDA the price should rise to somewhere between $6-$7. After reading through all the material on the phase 3 testing and following the stock closely over the last 6 months or so I expect the FDA to approve it about 80 times out of 100 )80% of the time). If you remove stupidity and hidden agendas from the equation I would expect an approval nearly 100% of the time.

Now I will attempt to do math, this could get painful so feel free to skip it (if you even got this far). I'm going to use $3.25 as the buy price I calculate off to make it easier. The actual price is $3.24 and my personal purchase price ranged from $3.30-$3.60 as I mentioned earlier.

80% of the time the stock will go to $6.00-$7.00. To help me with math I will use $6.50 as the target price if Lymphoseek is approved and goes to market.

80% of the time I double my money. 3.25 x 2 = 6.50

20% of the time I lose almost everything. 3.25 x oh shit = fml

So on a hypothetical 10K investment I would expect to earn $8,000 profit or 80% if they let me run it 100 times. In addition to that, while the stock will sharply tumble if the drug is not approved, I will likely be able to exit with some small amount of capital. It would not be a 100% loss.

I'm not sure if the above is correct so forgive me if it's not. I have a sneaking suspicion it might be 60% expected return for some reason, but idk, either way I'm fine with it.

I strongly discourage people from reading this and taking my advice, especially on NEOP. I am not a doctor and don't work for the FDA. I'm pulling these numbers out of my ass and I'm not even sure I did the simplest of math correctly. And while it will be awesome to make 80%, I don't think many people reading this have the stomach to lose the same percentage, even if the loss occurs a much smaller percentage of the time.

There is a guy on 2p2, DesertCat, who has a question and answer thread that is very, very informative. An excellent read for wannabe value investors.

EDIT: I should also add I bought some FTP money at $.68 and that's now worth about $.25 if I had to guess. Should have waited on that one too!
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Comments 7 | Post Comment » Probability is online now   
Aug
27
2011
Posted in Poker | View Comments (12)
 
I'm leaving for Loas to do some visa stuff tomorrow night and might post some pictures from that if there is anything cool. Here are some pics from a couple scooter rides we did. All of this stuff is less than an hour away from the house.

The images were too big to upload on Leggo and I can't figure out how to flip them on photo bucket so some of them are crooked.

Jordan at a viewpoint



Me at the same view point



Chasin waterfalls







Viewpoint



More waterfalls





Nother viewpoint







Action shot

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Comments 12 | Post Comment » Probability is online now   
Aug
13
2011
Posted in Poker | View Comments (6)
 
Hey everyone,

I'm looking to get some specific types of leakfinders.

6-Max PLO, either 100PLO or 200PLO with 4 tables.

Heads Up NL, up to 400NL with 2 tables.


Guidelines for making a leakfinder...

Only record the tables, nothing else.

Have the tables tiled with no overlap.

Deactivate the microphone, no audio is needed.

Don't start recording until you have been dealt in at all tables.

Produce your video in WMV format using the"best quality" or "recording dimensions" settings.
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Comments 6 | Post Comment » Probability is online now   
Aug
10
2011
Posted in Poker | View Comments (5)
 
I have hardly slept t all due to construction in my building over the last few day and did not realize how much it was effecting me until it stopped raining yesterday and I tried to ride the scooter. It was just really hard to balance and concentrate.Then today I almost hit some guy... who was going faster than he should have. Got some scratches on my foot but am fine besides that.
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Comments 5 | Post Comment » Probability is online now