Leggo Poker Every Tool You Need To Win

Running Good At Life

Aug
30
2011
Stock downswing and so on
Posted in Poker | View Comments (7)
 

I'm not sure how much the overall market slid but I got owned pretty hard. Lost about 25% from the high water mark. If I had a do over I could have made a substantial amount of money, unfortunately I was 100% invested and unable to commit more funds.

On to the trades...

I bought a very small position in FLL, a company that runs indian casinos. I sold out losing 10% because I found a better value. FLL has since rebounded to my purchase price +8% and I might look at it again someday if it drops.

Besides that my only sale was my main holding VIFL. I sold at $6 (after buying at $5) and was very happy to see it drop to $4.65. I almost sold everything I owned to rebuy it but decided to wait it out for a few reasons a) VIFL is a little hard to get in and out of due to the size of the company, b) the other stocks I held we also in the process of rebounding and it was impossible to say what would go of first, c) I tend to shy away from moving my money around a lot because of the negative feelings I have regarding such short term trades. Needless to say VIFL has gone up about 40% in the last week from the lows I could have bought at.

Another huge error was not getting pre approved for unsecured options. I deposited 1K to buy GTAT calls when then stock was $10 per share with a strike price of $11. I think the options were $0.40 or something with the date you have to exorcise 9 months out (I'm not positive though). TBH I'm not even all that sure how options work, I just knew it meant leverage, and lots of it. Unfortunately my brokerage denied my application to trade unsecured options and GTAT has since risen back to $12.27. I think that means I would have done quite well and would still have about 8 months to watch the stock go up, which I feel it will. I also briefly looked at getting NEOP options when it was $1.60 although I;m not sure I could have pulled the trigger even if my brokerage let me... NEOP is now at $3.24 and still rising.

The main lesson I learned is you need to have cash sitting, waiting for stuff like that to happen. It would have had a significant impact on my results if I had 25% of my cash free.

Currently I own two stocks only.

GTAT is about 65% of my portfolio. I bought it around $12.50 and I'm only down about 10% on it now. I sent emails to my friends and family telling them to buy it but I don't think anyone listened to me. I still believe it to be free money and urge any friends or family members reading this to buy some.

NEOP makes up the remainder of my portfolio. The complete story of my NEOP holdings is me buying a bunch between $3-$4 and selling it at $5.50. Then NEOP started to get hammered and it dropped. I started buying again around $3.6 and kept buying as it dropped till I was out of money, at around $3.30 or something. FML for not realizing it could go so low and missing an even greater opportunity. I'm down just about 13% on NEOP (excluding the previous profit from it) but that shouldn't last long. I hope to see it hit $4.00 by the end of September and if (when!) the FDA approves the NDA (new drug application) it will go even higher.

If Lymphoseek is approved for use by the FDA the price should rise to somewhere between $6-$7. After reading through all the material on the phase 3 testing and following the stock closely over the last 6 months or so I expect the FDA to approve it about 80 times out of 100 )80% of the time). If you remove stupidity and hidden agendas from the equation I would expect an approval nearly 100% of the time.

Now I will attempt to do math, this could get painful so feel free to skip it (if you even got this far). I'm going to use $3.25 as the buy price I calculate off to make it easier. The actual price is $3.24 and my personal purchase price ranged from $3.30-$3.60 as I mentioned earlier.

80% of the time the stock will go to $6.00-$7.00. To help me with math I will use $6.50 as the target price if Lymphoseek is approved and goes to market.

80% of the time I double my money. 3.25 x 2 = 6.50

20% of the time I lose almost everything. 3.25 x oh shit = fml

So on a hypothetical 10K investment I would expect to earn $8,000 profit or 80% if they let me run it 100 times. In addition to that, while the stock will sharply tumble if the drug is not approved, I will likely be able to exit with some small amount of capital. It would not be a 100% loss.

I'm not sure if the above is correct so forgive me if it's not. I have a sneaking suspicion it might be 60% expected return for some reason, but idk, either way I'm fine with it.

I strongly discourage people from reading this and taking my advice, especially on NEOP. I am not a doctor and don't work for the FDA. I'm pulling these numbers out of my ass and I'm not even sure I did the simplest of math correctly. And while it will be awesome to make 80%, I don't think many people reading this have the stomach to lose the same percentage, even if the loss occurs a much smaller percentage of the time.

There is a guy on 2p2, DesertCat, who has a question and answer thread that is very, very informative. An excellent read for wannabe value investors.

EDIT: I should also add I bought some FTP money at $.68 and that's now worth about $.25 if I had to guess. Should have waited on that one too!

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Comments
08-30-2011
Gerv is offline Gerv
Gerv's Avatar
Can I ask you through which site you are investing? your local bank? how much are the ''fees''? I know it is a lot here if I do it via my local bank which is basically every stocktrader's nightmare
08-30-2011
Probability is offline Probability
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I use fidelity but am looking to switch since they won't allow me to do options.
08-30-2011
bigdog6391 is offline bigdog6391
Why not just take that 1K you deposited and throw it into GTAT at $10 instead of buying calls? I understand that the leverage will lower your variance but why bother if you think its good value at $10?

Thanks for the stock updates and i look forward to more.
08-31-2011
Probability is offline Probability
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I think if I had bought calls I would have had an opportunity to make much more than if I bought stock strait up. Having an additional 1K of GTAT would not make a big impact on my overall return because of how much I already own.
08-31-2011
tinty is offline tinty
I like your blogs and what you've done in creating leggo but have 3 points on your investing:

1)I would strongly steer clear of giving tips to family and friends unless it is a regular two-way process. Best case scenario they make a bit of cash and think 'easy game', worst case scenario they lose more than they thought they could and resent you for it.

2) A 2 line portfolio is extremely risky in these volatile markets. I haven't focused enough on your strategy so don't know your investment horizons but unless you're day-trading it looks like you need a few more lines to minimise risk.

3)Just find the cheapest online trading site, fidelity is certainly not in Europe where I am.

cheeky 4th: It's not about having cash at hand, It's about knowing when to be out of the markets(in cash).

All the best.
08-31-2011
preflopjitters is offline preflopjitters
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Gl, dude.
08-31-2011
Probability is offline Probability
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Hey tinty,

Thanks, I'm glad you like the blog, I think I have a pretty thin readership on the investment ones. Unfortunately I did not create Leggo, would be awesome if I could take credit for that!

I agree with your first point and should probably avoid it in the future.I do give a decent amount of "do your own research and don't blame me disclaimers" but I'm not sure how much good that would actually do.

I mostly disagree with your second point though. An extreme example to help illustrate my point: If you could buy Coke (the entire business) for $100,000.00 but your net worth was only $150,000.00, would you pass and look for smaller positions to limit risk?

Fidelity is almost the cheapest site in America. I don't make many trades but I could def save a little bit. I'm actually looking at a few other brokerages right now.

I agree with your 4th point. If I was able to time the markets that would def be my best option, however, I don't have that ability (yet?).
 
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