After a great summer of poker September has gotten off to a horrific start. ive played maybe 21k hands, won 500k w/out showdown and lost 750k at showdown while winning 43% of showdowns and 48% when seen flop. those are ugly numbers. I'm down something like 250k on the month, most recently -380k vs leggopoker's very own nutsinho in just 1900 hands of 50/100 hu. I think that qualifies as a true beatdown. he played extremely well vs me, so i dont want this to sound disparaging at all. though im sure he would agree he outplayed me so i wont hurt his feelings.

an aside:

One important thing in poker is that sometimes you gotta quit someone. I felt pretty comfortable against nuts in this match in the majority of spots, and i can point to a lot of important things i think he was doing wrong. the point is, that doesnt matter in a case like this where i lost so much. there are multiple levels of incomplete information in poker and one of them is how you figure out your own edge. What if im wrong about what is "good" in poker, about what is a leak? what if i dont accurately estimate my edge vs this specific player or some set of players? Both of those possibilities are very low probability events, because to be true they require that one or many of the things im very sure about in judging poker, which i have learned over 1000s of hours of play and study are wrong. However, if i am wrong about the way i handicap hu poker matches, the accompanying price is catastrophic. I'm just going to go broke. Why? Because against the player who's edge over me I fail to notice theoretically (rather than empirically because empirically they will be winning all my cash and kicking the shit out of me) I will play until I have no money left, thinking im "rolled" for the game and the swings. But there wont be swings, and my variance will be infinite, because i will be a dog. I really, really, really, really, dont want that to happen. So when someone wins a lot of money against me, they lose my action for some (large) period of time. the cost of being wrong is too high... Another way to think of it is to imagine what % of your bankroll you would be willing to wager that you have an edge vs a given opponent (counting external factors like your computer is hacked, etc). this will take into account your own risk tolerance and whatnot. if the opponent is just obviously a fish and we discount things like being hacked then our BR % might be 100. In other words we might just choose to go down with the ship, as we are sure of our edge and the payoffs are very high. That won't be the case against a very good regular though like nutsinho, even if i think im slightly better. My BR number might be something like 20%, maybe less.

(i dont know of the above is coherent or interesting, but its something which is very useful for me)

im just going to post a few hands, they are kind of cool maybe, and some quick evaluations of my play.


***** Hand History for Game 49885280866 ***** (Poker Stars)
$10000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, September 20, 12:40:15 ET 2010
Table Daniels Rm 100 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 3: nutsinho ( $39746.75 USD )
Seat 5: Sauce123 ( $35958.00 USD )
Sauce123 posts small blind [$50.00 USD].
nutsinho posts big blind [$100.00 USD].
nutsinho posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Sauce123 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce123 [ Kd Kc ]
Sauce123 raises [$350.00 USD]
nutsinho raises [$1000.00 USD]
Sauce123 raises [$2614.00 USD]
nutsinho calls [$1914.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, 3h, 5c ]
nutsinho checks
Sauce123 bets [$3624.00 USD]
nutsinho calls [$3624.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ]
nutsinho checks
Sauce123 bets [$7223.00 USD]
nutsinho calls [$7223.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 5s ]
nutsinho checks
Sauce123 bets [$9216.00 USD]
nutsinho raises [$25860.75 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$12856.00 USD]
nutsinho wins $3788.75 USD
nutsinho shows [5h, 7h ]
Sauce123 shows [Kd, Kc ]
nutsinho wins $71915.50 USD from main pot

river is likely a check here with stacks, dont think its particularly close. if he didnt have the option of raising on the river i think my bet is +ev. my plan was to treat myself as effectively all in if i bet the river in this case, because i thought the frequency of facing a raise was less than 15% and i also thought that because of my pot odds he has to be bluffing and incredibly small amount ot make my call at least neutral ev. tho on the face of it, it looks like it is very hard for him to be bluffing.

***** Hand History for Game 50134998438 ***** (Poker Stars)
$10000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, September 25, 03:06:31 ET 2010
Table Daniels Rm 100 IX (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 3: nutsinho ( $33964.00 USD )
Seat 5: Sauce123 ( $33082.00 USD )
Sauce123 posts small blind [$50.00 USD].
nutsinho posts big blind [$100.00 USD].
nutsinho posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Sauce123 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce123 [ 5s Ks ]
Sauce123 raises [$350.00 USD]
nutsinho raises [$1400.00 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$1100.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8h, 8s, Ts ]
nutsinho bets [$1600.00 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$1600.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3s ]
nutsinho bets [$8432.00 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$8432.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 7d ]
nutsinho bets [$22407.00 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$21525.00 USD]
nutsinho wins $882.00 USD
nutsinho shows [Js, As ]
nutsinho wins $66163.50 USD from main pot
Sauce123 doesn't show [5s, Ks ]

i dont even know how to evaluate this hand, but i do know im never folding K5ss.

***** Hand History for Game 50076326891 ***** (Poker Stars)
$10000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, September 23, 08:47:45 ET 2010
Table Daniels Rm 100 II (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Sauce123 ( $31494.50 USD )
Seat 6: nutsinho ( $33908.50 USD )
Sauce123 posts small blind [$50.00 USD].
nutsinho posts big blind [$100.00 USD].
Sauce123 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
nutsinho posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce123 [ 2h 2c ]
Sauce123 raises [$350.00 USD]
nutsinho raises [$1400.00 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$1100.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, 9h, Kd ]
nutsinho bets [$1800.00 USD]
Sauce123 raises [$4125.00 USD]
nutsinho calls [$2325.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7h ]
nutsinho checks
Sauce123 bets [$4825.00 USD]
nutsinho calls [$4825.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 8d ]
nutsinho checks
Sauce123 bets [$10500.00 USD]
nutsinho raises [$23433.50 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$10519.50 USD]
nutsinho wins $2414.00 USD
nutsinho shows [9s, 9d ]
nutsinho wins $62988.50 USD from main pot
Sauce123 doesn't show [2h, 2c ]

my flop raise sizing is too small here for stacks slightly. turn is to get him to fold hands like AQ/AJ/random floats and to allow me to check back river with a hand like K5 if i have it (making a smaller potsize than call/call/call if i think his bet/bet/bet range on this board is bad for my weak TP combos). betting almost any size with a hand like 22 is ok. river i make another small bet, figuring he will c/r worse for value somewhat liberally and thinking i insure a call from KT+ almost 100% of the time. a bluff doesnt look to be obviously -ev for my sizing either, but it doesnt look attractive either.

***** Hand History for Game 50083342203 ***** (Poker Stars)
$10000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, September 24, 12:42:55 ET 2010
Table Daniels Rm 100 II (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Sauce123 ( $29737.00 USD )
Seat 3: nutsinho ( $34363.50 USD )
Sauce123 posts small blind [$50.00 USD].
nutsinho posts big blind [$100.00 USD].
Sauce123 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
nutsinho posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce123 [ Ad Ac ]
Sauce123 raises [$350.00 USD]
nutsinho raises [$1400.00 USD]
Sauce123 raises [$3700.00 USD]
nutsinho raises [$5800.00 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$3200.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kh, Th, Qh ]
nutsinho checks
Sauce123 checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qs ]
nutsinho bets [$5750.00 USD]
Sauce123 raises [$11500.00 USD]
nutsinho calls [$5750.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
nutsinho checks
Sauce123 bets [$5225.00 USD]
nutsinho raises [$15538.50 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$5687.00 USD]
nutsinho wins $4626.50 USD
nutsinho shows [2h, 5h ]
nutsinho wins $59473.50 USD from main pot
Sauce123 doesn't show [Ad, Ac ]

my preflop flat is best for balance here, tho it loses a little ev relative to raising in a vacuum. his flop check is incredibly weird, ill leave it at that. on this board and with the tiny tiny preflop 5bet im likely to have my entire 4betting range which contains enough combos that some betsize is going to be +ev for nuts as a bluff which means he should be very often value betting as well. i check flop because im confused and i want to induce a bluff later in the hand. i dont know if i like my check, bombing is probably better, however, if its bad it is only very slightly bad. turn i raised min to induce a 3bet bluff from his air/ a light calldown with AK. i think its very unlikely he has a queen or str8 but somewhat more likely he has a set/flush which the money is gettin in against anyways. river play is fucking confusing again, check is going to be best vs this opponent.

***** Hand History for Game 50077953816 ***** (Poker Stars)
$10000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, September 23, 09:34:04 ET 2010
Table Daniels Rm 100 IX (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 3: nutsinho ( $70486.25 USD )
Seat 6: Sauce123 ( $24800.00 USD )
Sauce123 posts small blind [$50.00 USD].
nutsinho posts big blind [$100.00 USD].
nutsinho posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Sauce123 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce123 [ Ts Qd ]
Sauce123 raises [$350.00 USD]
nutsinho raises [$1400.00 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$1100.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, 4s, Jh ]
nutsinho bets [$1800.00 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$1800.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ]
nutsinho bets [$4925.00 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$4925.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]
nutsinho bets [$62236.25 USD]
Sauce123 calls [$16550.00 USD]
nutsinho wins $45686.25 USD
nutsinho shows [Qh, Qc ]
nutsinho wins $49599.50 USD from main pot
Sauce123 doesn't show [Ts, Qd ]

this is slightly -ev.

frustrating that im never going to play him again, as it was a fun match and put me in a lot of tough spots. gotta be a (Semi) professional i guess !

back to the drawing board, hopefully i get some action

favorite running bad song right now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGYDN6CEHO4, gotta double up a 4-leaf clover and a lucky horseshoe. good advice