Rough month so far for me, poker-wise. I've put in more volume than I thought I was going to be able to, considering school, which is good. Unfortunately, I'm at this odd point in poker where 25/50 is too small of a game for me, but 2/400 is a little big, and 500/1k is of course temping but definitely too big. So this has me playing a strategy of game selecting well at 2/400,game selecting a bit more loosely at 1/200 and playing pretty much anyone at 25/50 or 50/100 in order to get better. The other big problem is that most of the juiciest games at 2/400 and 3/600 are PLO. I think I have a big edge in these games, however, there is just so much variance in the game that even the best players are pretty likely to go broke. By pretty likely I mean 5-10% to see a 50+ BI downswing (So, -2mill) within a given year. And I'm thinking that the best players have true winrates in the 4-8 ptbb/100 range. I'm probably winning less than that almost certainly since I'm not a PLO specialist. So I'm gambling here, and there isn't a ton I can do except hope I win a bunch before I hit a crippling downswing so that I can stand the hit. Luckily, I play a lot of other games as well, so that will cushion the swings a bit, but I'm just trying to explain how scary of an endeavor trying to take shots at the nosebleeds is. You have to be good and lucky to stay, and no matter how good you are, you just can't be unlucky. That's exactly what has been happening to me lately, I feel like I'm playing in great games but I've just been getting destroyed, mostly by Gus at 500/1k hu CAP PLO where I dropped 200k yesterday in an hour or so. And I've just been running brutally bad situationally, part of which is accounted for by the fact I play a very demanding (situationally) style, but most of which is just bad luck.

Aside from the PLO, I've been playing a bit of 7game and 10game up to 500/1k when the game is very good. I think I'm about breakeven in those games if 1) they are good and 2) I'm playing my A game. For any experienced 10game players they must be a goldmine though. That being said, I don't think barely anyone is even competent at all 10 games, especially the stud games where people play terrible but I play even worse. 2-7 SD is a really fun game as well, I'm hoping there will be more high stakes action there. Ditto with triple draw where there already is a ton of action, the problem with TD is just that the best regulars are actually quite tough already since it has run on stars for a long time. There are also a ton of bad/mediocre players, but the sharks make the games too tough for me to consider playing since I suck just a bit less than the fish.

Finally, I've been getting a bunch of action at 1/200 nlhe against Urnotindanger2. Long hu nlhe matches over multiple tables is for sure my favorite kind of poker on the planet, 1) because it is so intense and difficult not to tilt and stay focused 2) because after a few thousand hands there is so much information available to analyze. I think 2) gives me an edge as matches get longer since I'm not afraid to do work away from the table and make drastic adjustments in my game. Urnotindanger has been just incredibly frustrating to play though as my strategy has been relatively static each time we've played, and he hasn't changed his game up at all either. I mean, after each match, I will go over all the hands and make subtle adjustments, but my general gameplan has stayed the same. Which is why it is doubly frustrating to be down like 200k in $$ and 400k in ev to this guy, and moreover, each time he beats me he constantly says how bad I play and how great I run to only be down 200k. This is one of those matches where I feel I have an edge and I'm just going to have to go busto before I will deny him action, I don't know what else to say... So let's hope I run a little better or this is going to be a countdown to busto !

Some hands for the people who like hands:

Seat 1: Sauce1234 ( $40599.50 USD )
Seat 2: URnotINdanger2 ( $87604.50 USD )
URnotINdanger2 posts small blind [$100.00 USD].
Sauce1234 posts big blind [$200.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce1234 [ Kd Kc ]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$300.00 USD]
Sauce1234 raises [$1200.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$3400.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$2400.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, 8s, Ac ]
Sauce1234 checks
URnotINdanger2 bets [$3200.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$3200.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5c ]
Sauce1234 checks
URnotINdanger2 bets [$8600.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$8600.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
Sauce1234 checks
URnotINdanger2 bets [$72004.50 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$24999.50 USD]
URnotINdanger2 wins $47005.00 USD
URnotINdanger2 shows [Qs, Ah ]

I'm not sure what else to say in this hand without giving away too much. I think my pot odds are good enough to make this call a call.


Seat 1: Sauce1234 ( $64688.50 USD )
Seat 2: URnotINdanger2 ( $39321.00 USD )
URnotINdanger2 posts small blind [$100.00 USD].
Sauce1234 posts big blind [$200.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce1234 [ Qh As ]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$300.00 USD]
Sauce1234 raises [$1200.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$1000.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8s, 7s, Ac ]
Sauce1234 bets [$1625.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$4600.00 USD]
Sauce1234 raises [$9275.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$33321.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$27021.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 shows [Ad, 8d ]
Sauce1234 shows [Qh, As ]

I don't see a point in this hand where I'm not ahead of his range. And I don't see a point where I want to give free cards to what I think his range is.

Seat 1: Sauce1234 ( $48350.00 USD )
Seat 2: URnotINdanger2 ( $36791.50 USD )
Sauce1234 posts small blind [$100.00 USD].
URnotINdanger2 posts big blind [$200.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce1234 [ Ks 5s ]
Sauce1234 raises [$500.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$2200.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$1800.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4c, Jc, 9c ]
URnotINdanger2 checks
Sauce1234 bets [$3400.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$3400.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6h ]
URnotINdanger2 checks
Sauce1234 bets [$8000.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$8000.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 6s ]
URnotINdanger2 checks
Sauce1234 bets [$34550.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$22991.50 USD]
Sauce1234 wins $11558.50 USD
Sauce1234 shows [Ks, 5s ]
URnotINdanger2 shows [Tc, Qc ]

This is either okay or bad or very bad, I'm not sure which. But if you add those three descriptions up it's hard to come out with 'good'.

Seat 1: Sauce1234 ( $48821.00 USD )
Seat 2: URnotINdanger2 ( $86059.50 USD )
Sauce1234 posts small blind [$100.00 USD].
URnotINdanger2 posts big blind [$200.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce1234 [ 6s 4s ]
Sauce1234 raises [$500.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$2200.00 USD]
Sauce1234 raises [$5020.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$9400.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$6180.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 6c, Ah ]
URnotINdanger2 bets [$5600.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$5600.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6h ]
URnotINdanger2 bets [$9600.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$9600.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 7h ]
URnotINdanger2 checks
Sauce1234 checks
URnotINdanger2 shows [6d, Qd ]
URnotINdanger2 wins $53999.50 USD from main pot
Sauce1234 doesn't show [6s, 4s ]

I don't see any other line is viable besides jamming turn which I think is bad in this case.

Seat 1: Sauce1234 ( $26370.50 USD )
Seat 2: URnotINdanger2 ( $41221.50 USD )
URnotINdanger2 posts small blind [$100.00 USD].
Sauce1234 posts big blind [$200.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce1234 [ 5d 4h ]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$300.00 USD]
Sauce1234 raises [$1200.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$1000.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, 8h, 3h ]
Sauce1234 bets [$1625.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$1625.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7c ]
Sauce1234 bets [$4650.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$4650.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 6c ]
Sauce1234 bets [$18695.50 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$18695.50 USD]
Sauce1234 shows [5d, 4h ]
URnotINdanger2 shows [Tc, 8c ]

I like every street

Seat 1: Sauce1234 ( $23822.00 USD )
Seat 2: URnotINdanger2 ( $21998.50 USD )
URnotINdanger2 posts small blind [$100.00 USD].
Sauce1234 posts big blind [$200.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce1234 [ 4d 8d ]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$300.00 USD]
Sauce1234 raises [$1200.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$1000.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6c, Td, Jd ]
Sauce1234 checks
URnotINdanger2 bets [$1800.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$1800.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4c ]
Sauce1234 checks
URnotINdanger2 bets [$4600.00 USD]
Sauce1234 raises [$20622.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$14198.50 USD]
Sauce1234 shows [4d, 8d ]
URnotINdanger2 shows [Kh, 9d ]

Really odd turn call by him here, he has to think I have 98 or like 52dd a large % of the time.

Seat 1: Sauce1234 ( $83613.00 USD )
Seat 2: URnotINdanger2 ( $20398.50 USD )
Sauce1234 posts small blind [$100.00 USD].
URnotINdanger2 posts big blind [$200.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce1234 [ Ad Qc ]
Sauce1234 raises [$500.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$2000.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$1600.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, Jh, 7h ]
URnotINdanger2 checks
Sauce1234 checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3s ]
URnotINdanger2 checks
Sauce1234 bets [$3400.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$7600.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$4200.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Kd ]
URnotINdanger2 bets [$10598.50 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$10598.50 USD]
URnotINdanger2 shows [Ah, Td ]

Another slowplay on the turn by me, again, I think my play is best though it didn't work out.

Seat 1: Sauce1234 ( $50314.25 USD )
Seat 2: URnotINdanger2 ( $68107.25 USD )
URnotINdanger2 posts small blind [$100.00 USD].
Sauce1234 posts big blind [$200.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Sauce1234 [ 9c 6c ]
URnotINdanger2 raises [$300.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$200.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ah, Ac, Ks ]
Sauce1234 checks
URnotINdanger2 bets [$600.00 USD]
Sauce1234 raises [$1800.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 calls [$1200.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
Sauce1234 checks
URnotINdanger2 bets [$2200.00 USD]
Sauce1234 calls [$2200.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 7d ]
Sauce1234 bets [$1225.00 USD]
URnotINdanger2 folds

The only bright spot of the match, I cracked a smile and in my head I'm thinking 'wtf this can't work, can it?' Somehow I bink the fold.


So I guess the main point here is that I'm a bit dejected, since last time I took shots at the nosebleeds, in 2008, a similar thing happened where I just ran like shit as soon I had a chance at competing at the highest level in internet poker. Both times I have taken these shots I have been significantly better bankrolled than a lot of the big names you guys see playing day in and day out, and it's going to be rough to go broke and have to move down only to try again in another year. Of course after two big losing days in a row (-200k and -200k) right after my biggest winning day of the year (+175k) it seems inevitable that every plague from 2 outers to locusts will be rained down upon me as part of some malevolent master plan, but Sklansky said poker hands are independent and I'm still inclined to believe him.

GL All,

Ben



ps

Bonus graph showing slaughter, for the people who like graphs

Attached Thumbnails