Poker has been incredibly frustrating the past month or so. I was briefly rolled to play 2/400 as my main game and take shots at the very biggest games, mostly 500/1k CAP. I feel like my hu plo game has improved quite a bit as well. I think I have some technical leaks to plug still, but I definitely think I have an edge on a lot of the regulars playing the big games, and a big enough one to stomach the nasty variance that comes with playing them hu. I've also been playing a fair amount of hu nlhe against urnotindanger2 who I think I have a big edge on as well. I just can't win though, despite being very confident in my game and my game selection. My last 36k hands my won$wsf is at 48.5% and my w$@sd is 43.5%. HU those are at 49 and 42%. The reason for this downswing is clear from looking through my database: I'm getting consistently coolered, sucked out on, and just getting dealt the worst hand much more than my fair share. I'm not an expert in statistics, but intuitively the most likely explanation by far here is just an extended string of bad luck, nothing else. I've played enough 35k hand samples of poker at this point to tell when I'm getting fucked over, and I'm getting fucked over. So what can I do?

Well, nothing really. I'm doing just about the only thing I can do which is move down to 100/200 for awhile, where I'm still very comfortably bankrolled. The wrong move would definitely be to move down to say 25/50, where my game can get rusty, and if I am in fact doing something wrong, I can bleed a lot of money away complacently. Other than that, I just study my game and try to innovate and find new ways to get better. I'm going to begin work with a new piece of software and a new coach in the next few days to work primarily on my hu nlhe and plo games, and try to make more precise gameplans for my regular opponents. I've also been playing a bunch of nl 2-7 single draw as well as some 10game and 7game mix. The only game I can seem to win in is nl 2-7 sd, where I have been dominating at 50/100 and 100/200. I can't believe how bad people play, I've been playing since the update on FTP came out and the toughest player I've played so far is Phil Galfond, and I think it was his first time ever playing the game! I don't want to give too much strategy away, but I have never found a form of poker where game theoretic principals are more directly applicable, even with very deep stacks.

The worst part of this downswing is that I feel helpless, and so therefore incredibly frustrated. I keep going over my matches and I find some small mistakes, but I come out of the study thinking how big of an edge I have and how bad I have had to run to lose to these people. Losing to worse regulars, and more generally, just losing at poker and having to move down tilts me just much, much, much more than losing a ton of money. Now, I know this is weird and atypical: most of the professional players who I chat with constantly tell me sob stories about how much below ev they have run over some sample and how much more cash they should have. And I think that is and should be the emotional norm. My case is just really strange as I don't play for money really, except as a tool to compete on a higher level with better players. My emotional test for this strange conclusion has been to think about how I feel after each session I play before checking my results or trying to mentally count them up or something. They don't seem to be correlated too much at all: sometimes I get hammered for 150k and I go out to dinner, have a couple drinks and don't think about it for more than 5 minutes. Sometimes I win 40k, but feel like I could have played better and I feel a bit frustrated all night. Mostly, (in contrast to the addicted gambler) I feel fine when I know I played well, I feel I'm moving toward my goals in poker in some way, and I feel that I'm comfortable at my current stakes and can take a few losses. Right now, I just project running this badly into the future: if I run like this for 70k more hands I'll be playing 25/50 and on down and down. Is it more likely that I run bad for another 35k hands after just running bad for 35k hands? No, of course not, but it sure does feel that way and I don't know any way to shake that feeling really.

Each time I go through some soul-crushing downswing it just puts more time and effort between where I am now and when I can play 500/1k, do the durrr challenge, play Ivey/PA etc. And I don't have THAT much time: I'm trying to graduate college, chill with friends, enjoy my life, and start to make plans for a career after poker. I want to be beating the biggest games before I move on from poker, and won't have the amount of focus to compete at the highest level. Even now, it is somewhat of an uphill battle as I divide my energy between poker and school, compared to those pros who just think about poker. Also, the level of play is high enough at the nosebleeds that if I run very badly lifetime, I will never accomplish those goals, and no amount of will power will possibly allow me to change that. Now, having graduated statistics 101 and being familiar with variance I can intellectually accept this, but losing when I feel I "shouldn't" is frustrating, and I can't really change that.

So I guess I'll just vent on the internetz for your mild enjoyment or possibly extreme boredom.


Gl all
Ben

PS: In some ways, times like this are where the old-school gamblers would say you have to show "heart". Sure, I could conclude that I can't beat the biggest games and move down and crush smaller stakes and spare myself the vicissitudes of extended downswings. But I'm not going to. I think I can beat these games, and I'm going to try to do that. I wouldn't have had this confidence in my game two years ago the first time I played nosebleeds. Cashing out my roll and moving up the ranks a 2nd time post UIGEA has taught me that if I got lucky to be here, I got lucky both times I tried it. So, I'll move down when I don't have the money to play these games, and if I have the money again later, I'll try try again. And I'll try to stop complaining, life is good.