My you look lovely tonight, may I have this dance?...who can guess where the 5/10 shot is...

[IMG]http://www.gamblinggateways.com/images/midstakes.jpg[/IMG]

Been attacking the points mean cash promo this week, returned from my week off from the last promo grind on thursday, fortunately, and obviously, things have been going well...besides running insanely hot, also haven't been spewing or doing anything stupid, sticking to solid and aggressive poker. The week off really helped re-work some of those synapses...good or bad, I don't know yet, but in that week off, I couldn't help turn most remedial tasks like watching tv or sitting down having a coffee into a mental journey through hands I played during the last grind. I'm sure you all do it, you're sitting there, replaying hands that pissed you off or you thought u messed up in your head, reworking the best line you could have taken etc. Getting back on thursday felt good, what a refreshing break.

Anyway this promo requires 20k party points by july 26th, so thats like 90k hands at 200, but since I'm playing a lot of 400 as well, shouldn't be so bad. I have started it off 6-9 tabling though, sometimes going up to 12 tables if there are a lot of great games, thank you party :).

Here is the graph, and then below are some hands :P.

[IMG]http://www.gamblinggateways.com/images/pinchme.jpg[/IMG]



SB ($400)
BB ($400)
UTG ($400)
CO ($421)
Hero ($445)

Dealt to Hero 7:club:5:club:

fold, Hero raises to $12, SB raises to $36, fold, call,

FLOP ($76) K:diamond:4:diamond:Q:club:

SB bets $42, Hero calls $42,

TURN ($160) K:diamond:4:diamond:Q:club:K:heart:

check, Hero bets $55, SB folds, , Hero shows 7:club:5:club:,

Hero wins $157



SB ($522)
BB ($633)
UTG ($744)
UTG+1 ($895)
CO ($400)
Hero ($967)

Dealt to Hero 7:heart:7:spade:

fold, call, fold, Hero raises to $20, fold, fold, call,

FLOP ($46) 4:diamond:5:heart:6:club:

check, Hero bets $33, UTG+1 calls $33,

TURN ($112) 4:diamond:5:heart:6:club:T:diamond:

check, check,

RIVER ($112) 4:diamond:5:heart:6:club:T:diamond:2:diamond:

UTG+1 bets $32, Hero calls $32,

Hero shows 7:heart:7:spade:
(Flop 79.2%, Turn 88.6%)

UTG+1 shows 8:heart:9:heart:
(Flop 20.8%, Turn 11.4%)

Hero wins $173


This next one is a little blah, didn't have much equity, but it was a standard spot with a continuous donker, and I knew I had enough fold equity to fill an origame class, so whatever.



SB ($233)
BB ($133)
Hero ($253)
UTG+1 ($0)
CO ($200)
BTN ($232)

Dealt to Hero T:heart:8:heart:

Hero raises to $7, fold, fold, call,

FLOP ($15) K:club:2:club:6:spade:

BB bets $2, Hero raises to $15, BB calls $13,

TURN ($45) K:club:2:club:6:spade:5:club:

BB bets $6, Hero raises to $42, BB folds, , Hero shows T:heart:8:heart:,

Hero wins $54.50


And an example of the greatness of running well...

SB ($528)
BB ($627)
UTG ($753)
UTG+1 ($796)
CO ($400)
Hero ($1,109)

Dealt to Hero Q:heart:Q:club:

fold, call, fold, Hero raises to $20, fold, fold, UTG+1 raises to $60, call,

FLOP ($126) 4:spade:Q:diamond:5:heart:

UTG+1 bets $60, Hero calls $60,

TURN ($246) 4:spade:Q:diamond:5:heart:J:club:

UTG+1 bets $108, Hero raises to $333, UTG+1 calls $225,

RIVER ($912) 4:spade:Q:diamond:5:heart:J:club:6:diamond:

check, Hero bets $355, UTG+1 calls $343,

Hero shows Q:heart:Q:club:
(Flop 91.4%, Turn 95.5%)

UTG+1 shows K:club:K:spade:
(Flop 8.6%, Turn 4.5%)

Hero wins $1,595




Not really sure what to make of the whole thing yet, poker's going great, lifetime 200 "winrate" now is over 6bets, 400 only like 15k hands so far but still at over 10 bets, guess I'm a pretty lucky poker player in general. Would've never imagined making 15k in one week this early, but, regression is just around the corner to spoil the heater party, good thing, would be a shame to let making this much money influence your behavior and the way you see yourself and the people around you. Variance is like poker's way of keeping you in check and ensuring your feet stay on the ground, glad it's there...


Main lesson you should take from this is, keep sacrificing to the poker gods, what does that mean?...Fold your pocket aces every 7th time preflop, that's what I do...:p

We all do it, spend endless hours analyzing the technical factors of our poker play, whether merely verbally, or down and dirty with a pen and paper. If we don't know what to do in a certain hand, what button to press, we go to the drawing board, discussing with our friends and "co-workers", and evaluate on a mathematical level (whether explicitly or implicitly, the inevitable fact is that all our actions are governed by numbers...), the intricacies of the situation and the the act which finds the greatest long-term expected value.

Now, as a semi-beginner, it's become quite clear...albeit in myself, yet most certainly in most, the seeming lack of confidence in performing, what appears to be at that point in time, and quite possibly is in reality, the best course of action in a hand. As we progress through our poker careers, the experience and technical dissection will lead to confidence which increases our mental strength and subsequent likelihood of listening to our "instinct" at the table, of course at the same time enhancing and "correcting" that instinct. Who hasn't been at that point in a hand, where the alarm bells are ringing in your mind, and the subconscious recognition of previous examples of this pattern of events that is the current hand is concluding to take what seems like the most obvious and profitable action. And yet, the hand finds its way to another button.

Malcolm Gladwell's Blink gives an entertaining look at this phenomenon, what creates and instills us with this instinct, what factors enhance the ability to take the instinctual instruction, or hinder it's manifestation. Of course there aren't many poker examples, but still a fun read :P.

Yesterday, I was watching clips on youtube of Durr, Patrick Antonius, Phil Ivey, Brian Townsend, and you can't help but think that they were better suited at not only enhancing that instinct, but in listening to it and allowing it to control their actions with less distortion, distraction, or obstruction. If you bell-curved this "instinctual confidence" of poker players during their professional progression, I would wager quite a bit, that players like the one's mentioned would be to the very extreme right of that curve. You can notice it in their general demeanour and persona. There simply seem to be less emotional cues.

Well, yes great, poker players need to control their emotions, congratulations somnius, what a revelation. The point is, in all our mental consumption with poker technique, where hands are broken down to their most individual components and dissected with a fine-toothed analytical "comb", I have yet to see much of this directed towards the intricacies of instinctual physiology. I don't know about you, but when my brain says triple barrel now and he will fold, he has 77-99 everytime, bet, yet my finger cannot press the button, I can't help but feel at least a little curiosity about what road of synapsesis is obstructing which, and how do I re-pave. Not all of you are met with the same fate, of course, but there is most certainly a need for exploring the science of this very real, and I think, extremely important phenomenon.

A poker player's success depends on "trusting his reads", of course, but saying that is like saying, to make the most money in this hand, you have to play it in the most ev fashion. Of course, that is the goal, now, let's take a pen and paper, and dissect.

Here you go Party, here's your 240 hours...albeit you stole 20 of them but whatever.

Good experience overall, I was just breaking into 1/2 when I did this, so I now have a ton of hands to really start digging in and studying. From this point, it's 40 hours a week of playtime + study with short sessions to maintain A-game. Thought poker was about how much you won, my, how much it also depends on how little you tilt and spew.

I followed some fish up to 2/4 at the end, didn't know the same 1/2 fish hit it up, so that was fun. Avoided the regs for the most part, tried to bluff a couple and got owned, it was great, actually fun to watch good poker. Definately doesnt' seem as randomly spewy as 1/2.

Anyway, so that's it, freedom reigns once again, and after a week pokerfree I shall return to study, play, and get back to the forums. See ya.

And of course...here's the graph.

[IMG]http://www.gamblinggateways.com/images/JunePromo.jpg[/IMG]

No idea how this happened, but the final week, it turns out I need 130 hours, wtf party, this defies my records and HEM's, but whatever, who knows, who cares. So, that's almost 16 hours a day for 7 days. I have finished the first 2 and started the 3rd, I just did over 20 hours straight, so I get to take a quick nap and do the rest of todays 11 hours in like 6 hours.

Amazing how retarded you can play sometimes if you're tired enough, but that's ok, I'm not spewing enough to de-value this promotion. No idea if I'll do the 2nd month, I don't wanna see anything poker related for a week after this whole ordeal, but, whatever.

One thing I have realized, is that this promotion goes against everything that a learning poker student should stand for. So perhaps it was a mistake, I don't know...

In any case, time for my nap, yippee.

Well, little behind again this week which stinks. The days I played were fine, but had to take care of some life stuff so didn't get in the hours I wanted. Next 2 weeks will have to be at least 65 hours each. I'm gonna try to shoot for at least 70 this week in case, don't wanna leave too many hours for the end.

On the bright side, getting a bit better it seems, plugging some leaks, finding the fold button nicely now instead of getting stubborn with strong hands that are so obviously beat. Think I'm a clean 5 bet winner at least now. Mainly I'm happy about my 3bet pot play, getting a little more comfortable there, which is great since they were my most vulnerable times I would say.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to going nuts the next couple weeks, I hope to post week 3 after 80 hours of solid play.

Here's the chart so far, 2 weeks, 110 hours.

[IMG]http://www.gamblinggateways.com/images/2weeks.jpg[/IMG]

Well, kinda dissapointed, only got in 55 hours this first segment for the promo, started off pretty slow but getting into the groove of things so should make the 240 by month's end. The play is suffering a little bit, times when I wanna get up and take a break I force myself on a bit, but whatever, building up tolerance and poker endurance is fine with me. After this is all done maintaining a 40 hour a week "work schedule" will be easy.

Also, think I will be doing the second month as well, just hard to turn down 160 hours of rakefree play. If all goes according to plan, after these 2 months, I will have an investing roll to start playing around with and learning, as well as a huge poker roll for comfortable shots at 2/4 when the time comes. These couple months will suck, but it's just really worth it.

Basically right now it's waking up, spending an hour or so with family, looking into hands, starting the grind with breaks until like 12 or 1am, then going out for a couple with friends to enjoy my newfound treat, the angus burger, quite the healthy lifestyle :S.

Anyway here's the graph for the week, ugh to the last 6k hands or so, losing every flip running into sets etc etc, whatever, gonna pick things up a bit this week.


[IMG]http://www.gamblinggateways.com/images/week1.jpg[/IMG]

So I woke up today to a great sight. An e-mail from party, another great and crazy promotion. Play 160 hours in 30 days, and you get up to 80 hours of non-rake play within that same 30 day period. Basically, 240 hours of poker play in a 30 day period, 80 of which will be rakefree.

Never wanting to miss a nice grind challenge, I began today, only got in 7 hours but felt alright, 9 tomorrow should be fine.

I'm quite sure as well, unless I misread, that you have until august 2nd to make use of this. You can either restart the 30 day period, or, you can start another one if you finish the first. So, you can do 480 hours in 60 days, 160 of which would be rakefree...not much else to say, ship the dough.

Let the grind begin :D

First blog I tried got too personal for my liking, giving it another go, this will be just about poker, part performance, part ramblings as I learn more about this world and its people.

Proud to say I begin this one as a recent 200NL regular, maintaining a healthy 7 bets, only 4 tables, but the fun's just beginning. Of course gotta thank Etown, Probability and Possu for helping transform my game.

Anyway, gonna use this entry as an extension of a recent thread by Probability about good winrates. Aejones made a comment that I agree with and feel hits the mark the best. My post in that thread is below, I'd like to elaborate here:

If a tree falls in the woods and no one's around, does it make a noise?

If an arbitrary sample of hands is averaged out to x winrate, is it a reflection of the ev on the very next hand, or the one after...each of which, has infinite strings of fluctuating subtleties....?

I'm guilty before I begin, earlier in this entry I mentioned I was beating 200nl for 7 bets, what hypocrisy. Well, I am...over the sample I have...

It seems the perceptual disparity in the winrate discussion is analogical to that of variance, so this shall be a discussion of both then, as they belong to the same creature.

What if someone says, I beat 200nl for 7 bets, are they wrong or right? Well...both. Over the sample they are referring to, they have in fact accumulated an amount of winnings which averages out to 7 bets across each random 100 hand group. Simple enough. But now, how is this information acknowledged, considered, interpreted, analyzed, applied...for the most part, rather incorrectly.

Sure, part of that is variance; if J4s is J6s' ugly splasher cousin or whatever aejones goes on about, then variance is the deformed nephew of natures true winrate(lack thereof). We talk about regressing to the mean, others to winning being the predictor of upcoming loss, it is this disparity between understanding and outlook on regression being the more accurate interpretation of nature, that compares to this perceptual anomaly being considered with winrates.

But why, well, of course, there are a multitude of reasons. Lets say you play 10k hands and average 15 bets. What could have contributed to this. Fish, soft games, your "A" game, working out, good breakfast, nice weather, good relationships, just saw something funny, were in a good mood, only played 4 tables, only played 1 table etc.

But these types of factors are not the end of the story, you see, lets say now we help control for those factors, not perfectly of course, but, by enlarging the sample of course we further negate variables that are more likely having an influence in the short term.

So, now, we take a sample of 1 million hands, wow, nice, k now this sample averages out to 6 bets. Pretty sweet. Now, this individual sits down to play a hand, is he playing this hand in such a manner whereby he will maximize the ev of the hand in such a way as to create an expectation equivalent to that of the other similar situations included in the million hand sample?....Mainly...no, no he won't.

Why you ask? Well, lets see, those factors I listed above, those things influencing your play, they effect you, hand, after hand, and after so many hands, it was said their influence was closer to being rendered null. Well ye in a sense, these fluctuations, guess we can call them random, definately don't have to be though, lets say some are under your control, others are not, well, sometimes they effect you positively, sometimes negatively. So over x hands, we can postulate that through the "random" fluctuations of these incidences, we have exercised greater control for them in our assessment of your game.

These factors are influencing everyone though, you, and every other player at the table. Lets say the fish factor is controlled for, it's only regulars, okay well one of these regulars is tilty today, nicer result for you, of course a week later it could be reversed, and you tilt to him. In any case, it is these factors along with many others that render this hand slightly uncomparable to the similar ones in the 1million hand sample. Now, the point is, through all this, after all this, can we now sit down, and say with confidence, that this very hand we are playing, we are playing, as a 6bb winner?

A million hands, with all its fluctuations - internal, external, skill related, non skill related, is still just a collection of pieces.

This can be extended to say then, that the strongly advocated mentality and approach to poker of playing each hand individually with its own merit, isn't just relevant to tilt control. Rather, it's obviously the most reasonable, grounded, and accurate representation of the poker paradigm.

So go forth, play those hands, one hand at a time.