I played a PLO hand this morning that has got my head all scrambled up. I was crushing the table and up a bunch of BB's and the game broke leaving it HU with a middle-aged guy from St.Louis who played loose passive, but made no errors in spewing off. He triples up his 20k stack to 60k and Rafi Amit sits in. Stakes are $100/200 and we are all putting on the $400 Mississippi straddle. My reads on the guy are that he doesn't make big bluffs and is content on letting me bluff, semi-bluff, and value bet him. Basically he tries to play his hand by not taking risks and not getting out of line. Btw, this style can be fine vs tilted aggro's who are 1) Bad at hand reading or 2) Bad at betting strategy. His confidence was up because he tripled and I felt like he was certainly not the type to risk losing his stack on a marginal spot.
$60k effective, He limps SB, Rafi folds. I pot 3388ss, he calls. $3k in pot. 34Kr he c/c $2,400 in rhythm. Turn Qd he C/R $7,400 to pot after thinking for a minute. I ask him if he would show if I folded and he says yes. I tell him I have outs and ask him how many times he wants to run it if I go allin and he says 4x. He doesn't look extremely relaxed and I do not think he would think for that long on the turn if he had THE top set. Definitely still a possibility. He also commented that he raised it $30k "I made it 30 you tell me if I have a good hand."
Help me.