5/10 300bb deep

[petenilson]

Villain is opening 90% and 3betting 30%. Iv reduced my opening range to combat this and am calling a bit wider. I have semi bluff raised him a few times when he c-bets in 3b pots and now he has started check folding some flops.

I call a bit light here pre as he has started giving the initiative away. I was kinda feeling like he might check raise given the game flow. FWIW Im playing relatively passive pre and he might think im on the nittier side.

Full Tilt, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $2,909.50
BB: $3,095.50

Pre-Flop: Q 7 dealt to Hero (BTN)
Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $100, Hero calls $70

Flop: ($200) J 8 4 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $160, BB calls $160

Turn: ($520) 6 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $420, BB raises to $910, Hero raises to $2,649.50 and is All-In

Im not sure what to make of his c/r on the turn but I know I can have a ton of strong hands I can shove for value here considering how widely im calling pre flop. Its another 1700ish to villain on the turn.

Thoughts?

[six 4 suited]

ahh i play considerably lower stakes and rarely get 300bb deep so not sure whats standard here. pre flop seems loose, is 4bet bluffing and folding superior to calling?
anyway on flop you felt like he was gonna c/r yet you bet what was the plan if he did raise? i like checking back flop, disguise our draw, see free turn card and free or cheap river with an opportunity to bluff IP if we miss.
if his turn c/r range is made of draws which ones are we ahead of? 9dTd? 9cTc? do you really have a tonne of strong hands here, set of 8's and 4's, possibly J8 judging by pre flop standards. seems like a miracle he if calls and where ahead with Q high.
i only play up to 100nl so take my advice for whatever you think its worth

thoughts?
ask sauce

[petenilson]

Im not checking the flop Q high especially on this board where peeps are check folding a lot. Look its not like I'm expecting a check raise as I make the bet. Its that if I presume that he is capable of adjusting then I could expect him to start countering his c/f with a c/r or a c/c. So far he has done nothing to prove he will do this but its an adjustment Im aware that I might do in his situation. I will flat JJ this deep too and occasionally bet 66 on the flop considering he has just been c/f'ing. My turn shoving range is JJ,88,44.J8s,66 and his range is capped considering he didnt bet the flop this deep.

[klamsauce]

I don't hate the shove in theory given like you said his range is capped for not cbetting here and ours isn't. It just depends if he has adjusted and checking some monster on the flop to us given the current gameflow.

[petenilson]

Originally Posted by klamsauce

I don't hate the shove in theory given like you said his range is capped for not cbetting here and ours isn't. It just depends if he has adjusted and checking some monster on the flop to us given the current gameflow.

Given that we have no reads on villain in a situation like this. Would it be correct to assume he is more likely to c/r strong hands on the flop than he is to check raise those strong hands on the turn? FWIW there is no history of me repeatedly double barreling him.

[klamsauce]

Originally Posted by petenilson

Given that we have no reads on villain in a situation like this. Would it be correct to assume he is more likely to c/r strong hands on the flop than he is to check raise those strong hands on the turn? FWIW there is no history of me repeatedly double barreling him.

Yeah probably. I mean it's tough to really assume anything. But yeah I think the flop is more likely where he would c/r just given the depth of the stacks and the wetness of the board. He risks a lot with a monster on this texture by waiting until the turn when he's out of position.And if he doesn't have a monster, our shove just kicks him in the nuts.

[PiercE]

I like the way this hand is played, however it is important to know if our opponent is capable of adjusting to current game-flow and checking monsters here. If this is not the case then we can rule out AA/KK and all flopped monsters making this turn play a lot more powerful imo.

[entrncdrnr]

Obviously a call will be +ev, the only question is how much more +EV is shipping?

According to my calc, he only has to fold around 26% for the shove to be +EV.

I have a hard time coming up with bluffs in his range here. I suppose the most likely bluff would be a hand such as a flopped pair and turned gutter, however I would expect him to flat them most of the time on this turn. Perhaps also some hands such as 910o or a flush draw that took this line expecting you to barrel a ton. Also perhaps a hand such as A10o that is turning into a bluff.

It is possible that he is taking this c/c c/r like with an overpair or KJ+ given how wet the board is getting. I don't really expect those hands to fold at all really as I think they will often justify a call with how many combo draws are possible (though it is likely a fold is correct with the bottom of this range).

Also it is possible that he has a turned 2 pair or set which are certainly not folding.

A lot of possibilities, and vs. a good opponent is very difficult to say what frequencies without seeing all the relevant history.

I would most likely flat because I am sure it is +EV and it plays fine vs. his bluffs and value range alike.

[sauce123]

this is ok, i mean, in your head you need to be thinking he is folding like 45% for jamming ot be better than calling. std is to call