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Old 03-05-2010, 06:37 AM
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Default Re: AQo v 2nd 4b from my opponent

From your description, this player seems a little loose. I would put his range at something like:
A9s+
AJo+
KQo
Any pocket pair
Suited connectors 87+

If this is the case, then Poker stove says:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.307% 43.63% 03.68% 83672265 7052262.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 52.693% 49.02% 03.68% 94001259 7052262.00 { 22+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, KdQd, QdJd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, AJo+, KQo }

This is a clear shove.

If you have a read that villian would be even tighter than this then a really narrow range would be:
AJs+
AQo+
55+

Given this range, PokerStove says:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.065% 33.73% 05.34% 40429316 6395080.50 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 60.935% 55.60% 05.34% 66641803 6395080.50 { 55+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AQo+ }

Trying to calculate EV if called:
EV = 0.39*71.5 - 0.61*48
EV = 27.9 - 29.3
EV = -1.4

But given that you also have fold equity then I think it is still correct to push.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 03-09-2010, 02:21 PM
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Default Re: AQo v 2nd 4b from my opponent

Your pokerstove ranges include AdXd hands which he cannot have. I know PS doesn't count them but you it will have a small affect on the %'s.

/pedantry
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Old 03-13-2010, 05:10 PM
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Default Re: AQo v 2nd 4b from my opponent

can you post the hand where he stacked you? I'm curious to see what happened there, and if there are clues in that dynamic that can help us better approximate his range here.
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