Re: AQo v 2nd 4b from my opponent
From your description, this player seems a little loose. I would put his range at something like:
A9s+
AJo+
KQo
Any pocket pair
Suited connectors 87+
If this is the case, then Poker stove says:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.307% 43.63% 03.68% 83672265 7052262.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 52.693% 49.02% 03.68% 94001259 7052262.00 { 22+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, KdQd, QdJd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, AJo+, KQo }
This is a clear shove.
If you have a read that villian would be even tighter than this then a really narrow range would be:
AJs+
AQo+
55+
Given this range, PokerStove says:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.065% 33.73% 05.34% 40429316 6395080.50 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 60.935% 55.60% 05.34% 66641803 6395080.50 { 55+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AQo+ }
Trying to calculate EV if called:
EV = 0.39*71.5 - 0.61*48
EV = 27.9 - 29.3
EV = -1.4
But given that you also have fold equity then I think it is still correct to push.
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