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I think I will be shoving the river a huge % of the time. With "nuts," always will shove. With bluffs, there are tons of river cards to bluff (lots of straight cards, backdoor flush draw, etc) so I continue on those (and even blank rivers sometimes) as well.
Given this and the fact that his hand has little chance to improve, I think he needs to make his decision on the turn. Either call and get it in on the river or fold. Call turn/fold river doesn't seem correct unless I stop bluffing a lot.
In this situation (where I am going to assume Greg is floating a lot) a bet has to be for value or to induce a cr bluff (which I will do fairly often in spots where I think I am getting floated, Greg knows this). You have to think a cr is fairly likely and have to be willing to get it in if you are gonna induce one. If you're not comfortable, check back for control/deception or bet hoping I call down while folding to a cr. I don't think Greg's line is optimal here.
That being said, the spot is really sick because of the aggro dynamic and the board texture/situation/deepness. There probably is a ton of poker math to be done here as you have indicated, but I'm not even sure where to start in such a complicated spot mathematically.
Craig
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