NL200 Deep 3B pot line check

[Xeta23]

I was playing villain on a few shorthanded tables and some hu. He had stacked me 250bb deep one or two times before this hand happened, which were standard hands on his part. He was pretty aggro but I didn't have a lot of specific reads on him. He was opening tight for hu like 70 something I'm not sure and I wasn't 3betting too much (was less than 15% iirc).

Can I play this hand any other way?

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $571.10
BTN: $494.80

Pre-Flop: Q A dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN raises to $6, Hero raises to $24, BTN calls $18

Flop: ($48.80) A 3 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $36, BTN calls $36

Turn: ($120.80) K (2 Players)
Hero bets $96, BTN raises to $296

[flippity]

without more reads... no chance.

[Xeta23]

Sorry I forgot I left out my final action in the hand. I shoved, is that good?

[d2themfi]

Did some quick sims

For flatting range pre I gave him

50% AA, KK
TT-22,AQs-A2s,KQs-K4s,QJs-Q5s,JTs-J6s,T9s-T6s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,AQo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o
which is ~30% of hands

For Flop Calling Range I gave him
no 2 pair hands (he is raising them)
50% 3 of a kind(sometimes slowplaying sometimes raising)
50% flushdraws that have gutshots or more (again sometimes raising them)
All Middle pair or better
all flush draws
all gutshots
and KQ

Works out to a calling range of about 48% and a value raising range(inc good draws) of around 7% I think.

On turn you can see from pictures what the strategy was that I gave him




Our Max Exploitative Strategy (MES) is to bet these hands



And call a shove with these hands



I used a very rough estimate of how the rivers would play out using checkdowns so its not 100% accurate but a good guide. This is also maybe a best case scenario as he might not be so likely to shove combo draws on the turn

If we give him only 50% of his combo draws for shoving, our betting range increases slightly, but our calling range of those shove decreases quite a bit to:




Calling it off with AQdd becomes neutral EV when Villain shoves ~20% of his combo draws

[luckychewy]

super informative post d2 ty. i don't understand why including more combo draws in his range would make us fold pair+fd though? unless combo draws include kx+fd for him then it would make sense. i would guess that most people don't shove 20% of their no showdown combo draws here, but still likely wouldn't find a fold without a better read than pretty aggro.

[Xeta23]

It wouldn't. I'm not exactly sure which part you are talking about, but we call AdQd in both cases. If he calls 50% of his combo draws instead of shoving all of them, our overall betting range widens, but our calling range gets tighter because now he is shoving a much stronger range.

[d2themfi]

Originally Posted by luckychewy

super informative post d2 ty. i don't understand why including more combo draws in his range would make us fold pair+fd though? unless combo draws include kx+fd for him then it would make sense. i would guess that most people don't shove 20% of their no showdown combo draws here, but still likely wouldn't find a fold without a better read than pretty aggro.

I might misunderstand, but I think you misinterpreted/misread possibly-

The first sim is where he is shoving all his combo draws, and we bet that range I posted, and call I think ~80% of it. In the 2nd sim where he is shoving 50% of his combo draws, we bet slightly more hands (I didnt post the picture because it was pretty similar), but then we bet/fold a lot more often- still calling AQdd to the shove though)

The final pic, just shows the cut off point for calling AQdd vs a shove once we have already bet and get shoved on by a range of (2pair+, combo draws), where the variable is combo draws

btw the combo draws in this sim are just flushdraws that have a gutshot as well (but they can be clubs or diamonds)

[luckychewy]

i post bad. i didnt mean fold aq w fd i meant fold some 3x/7x w fd as the sim indicates, which i don't get given were giving him a range w many unpaired fds.

[d2themfi]

Originally Posted by luckychewy

i post bad. i didnt mean fold aq w fd i meant fold some 3x/7x w fd as the sim indicates, which i don't get given were giving him a range w many unpaired fds.

ahh yea. I just rechecked the sim, and its because those hands arent even in our betting range anymore. I should have posted the picture, but I didnt notice that there was that much difference. Heres our betting range vs a range of (twopair+, 50% fds+gs)