NL50: 1card str8 facing river potlead

[wrap_it]

23rd hand of the match
villain is 1tabling and from spain
he folds a ton of BTNs
has 3b me once (I'm probably opening 90% from the start)
called probably 30% of the time
and led two flops one of which was this hand:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
($50.70)
Hero ($54.95)

Dealt to Hero 9 9

Hero raises to $1.25, calls $0.75

FLOP ($2.50) 4 7 K

bets $2, Hero calls $2

TURN ($6.50) 4 7 K K

checks, Hero bets $4.75, calls $4.75

RIVER ($16) 4 7 K K 4

checks, Hero bets $12, calls $12

Hero shows 9 9
(Pre 79%, Flop 75.7%, Turn 95.5%)

shows 4 3
(Pre 21%, Flop 24.3%, Turn 4.5%)

wins $39.50

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
($71.20)
Hero ($50.25)

Dealt to Hero Q J

Hero raises to $1.25, calls $0.75

FLOP ($2.50) Q Q K

checks, Hero bets $1.75, calls $1.75

TURN ($6) Q Q K T

checks, Hero bets $4.75, calls $4.75

RIVER ($15.50) Q Q K T 9

bets $15, Hero ?

So what here? He looks somewhat fishy so I think his range includes more weirdly played value hands but he still doesn't rep very much. He has been 3betting smaller than 3x so his value 3betting range should include TT+,AJ,KQ which means that he can only really show up with QT, Q9 for value (which might also raise somewhere) or Jx splits. That said, I don't really see any bluffs in his range so would this still be a fold given that the chance that he does still show up with a hand I've excluded above is >0%?

[guitarizt]

Annoying spot. Idk what the right answer is but I guess it wouldn't surprise me to see AJ here either which would probably make river a fold if I didn't miss anything in this:

Simulated 100000 Holdem Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
Board :: KsQcQdTd9s

 Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi       Range           
    
   1       33.3     0.0      66.7          QsJh      
   2       66.7     33.3     66.7     KQ,QT,Q9,JT,KJ

[tinygoldfish]

meh, not folding, a fishy guy like this that randomly donks bottom pair could def have stuff like Axdd or be bluffing with T9, he could also have ATo,A9o, something pretty that didn't want to let go on the flop on the flop like 9d8d,8d7d (i know it seems very unlikely for that to happen but it does happen) and IME after he showed that donk with 43s he's a lot more likely to lead Qx on the flop if he flops it soon after he was caught with a weak hand. Don't think he's donk potting a lone Jx very often tho...

[KnexFtw]

Well you block most of his boat combos so just call and expect to chop a lot and win now and then from some spazz