NL50 hero call 3B pot vs unknown

[koboosh]

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $44.30
Hero (BB): $113.55

Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, BTN calls $3.50

Flop: ($10) 4 3 K (2 Players)
Hero bets $5.25, BTN calls $5.25

Turn: ($20.50) 5 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $14, Hero calls $14

River: ($48.50) J (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $20.05 and is All-In, Hero calls $20.05

Villain opening 100% BTN. I 3B him earlier and he folded. He's not reloading and I would guess he's not a reg.


I was planning on ch/folding the turn (in general I'm still a bit lost in these spots) but he just insta snap bet it which I thought was weird.

Is this okay vs what appears to be a bad agro player?

[Xeta23]

I think it's ok. Betting the turn is probably better though.

[Beans]

i agree betting turn is a better option

[koboosh]

Why? I thought by betting I would isolate myself with Kx, whereas I keep more bluffs in his range when I check - and there is some chance a bad player bets this turn with Ax...

[Xeta23]

Because he's probably calling turn with worse more often than he is floating. Of course there is some chance but I think there is a better chance a bad player calls this turn with Ax than bet when checked to. If he's that bad just start with a c/c on the flop.

[koboosh]

Ok,,, so once I bet turn what about on a blank river river?

I'm kind of unsure vs an unknown that seems bad. I get a great price so it should make him less inclined to bluff, but vs a potentially bad player i just don't know if he's a retard. Probably have to call given price on river?

[Xeta23]

Well try to think of it like this: We are betting turn because we think he has more hands with SD value that we beat than those that beat us. So let's randomly assign a range of A5s,66-88,AT,65s and he would most likely also have a range of at least some kings and slowplayed sets, and definitely some flush draws as well. If you check, his weak pairs and 66 and A hi's etc are just checking back hoping to win at showdown. He is just not going to bluff those. And he also has some kings and missed flush draws. This is where the reads come in. Do you think he might call a value shove with those weak pair hands that you beat? How often do you think he raises K on the flop? How about FDs? Would he slowplay pre? Would he ever slowplay sets (Does he even call 33-55 pre?)? Would he value shove K9o on the river? How often would he bluff his missed FDs on the river? And so on. Then you can either check/fold, check/call, value shove, bluff shove on the river based on your answers/guesses to those questions.

I'm not saying betting flop and turn is definitely best. I personally think it's probably better but that obviously also depends on a lot of things. My guess would be that a bad player at 50NL is probably more likely to be calling too loose both pre and on the flop/turn/river so you should usually be more concerned about missing value than getting bluffed.

[Xeta23]

As played, river call is most likely slightly negative EV or breakeven.

[Beans]

also betting the turn ballances for the time we are bluffing and going to barrel 3, and this is as close to a great spot for 3 barrel bluffing, like Xeta said, all Ax hands are prolly gonna peel the turn but have to give op on the river.

[d2themfi]

Id check this hand on the flop a decent amount, unless I was going for a 100% or near 100% cbet strat here. Regarding the turn- did you think he could bet/fold 14$ with a stack of only 34$? If so then I think that would imply just going call/call.. if he is basically just bet/calling everything on the turn (seems more likely to me), id rather just fold or shove.. whether or not to fold comes down to how often he does that with fds, and stuff like 65s or whatever.. Id say this is a turn spot where quite a bit of his range has marginal showdown and not a lot wants to bluff, so Id probably fold under that scenario on the turn