NL50: JJ on Q high facing raise

[wrap_it]

reads/history

looks like a regular player from britain but he turned out to be a huge fish. At this point he was playing 67//65 with a low 3bet% and a 50% FCbet%

- he c/r and checked down A9o on a Q325Q rainbow board, I b/c the flop with K2o
- he c/r K73 2tone
- I put in my first 3b w/ K2s and he 3x'd J32 2tone so terrible raise size
- raised 83s, 2barreled A336 rainbow, he 3x'd again, didn't feel awesome about this spot but called him down and he showed 66

Then this hand:

So from 14 cbets in unraised pots he has c/r me 3 times and once in the only 3b pot we've played. What would you do here then? I'm completely lost. Shoving seems terrible since he might just do this with Qx especially because he has been raising so much. Calling seems terrible because he can check back all of his draws/bluffs on the turn or I have to play superfaceup by c/c leading and folding JJ on this board is also kinda meh if he's raising that much but I can't see what else I can do especially how many Qx are in his defending range.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($50)
($103)

Dealt to Hero J J

raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, calls $3.50

FLOP ($10) Q 6 4

Hero ?

[deamoneye]

I don't see a bet or villain's raise in the hand history.

Is it like this?:

Hero bets $7, villain raises to $21

I'd muck since he has shown the goods 100% up until now.

[d2themfi]

Definitely bet the flop, id go for 5$... Assuming he raised (not in the HH), we need more info.. What is his btn opening %, and his fold to 3bet %?

[Xeta23]

Also the action on the flop would help. But yeah bet the flop, and I think calling a raise as a standard is good, I wouldn't worry too much about playing faceup.

[wrap_it]

I'm sorry, the correct action is:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($50)
($103)

Dealt to Hero J J

raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, calls $3.50

FLOP ($10) Q 6 4

Hero bets $5.50, raises to $18.50, Hero ?

@deamon: Well, he has really only shown the goods in one exact hand. The A9o hand rather indicates that he's buttonclicky and doesn't have too much of an idea what's going on. And I don't think we can necessarily compare his turn raising range in unraised pots with a flop raise in a 3b pot.
That said, I find that especially the more fishy guys with such a bad image almost always have a hand in this spot when they've been raising a couple of times before. I feel like it's so much more likely for him to show up with a random Qx than a bluff.

@d2themfi: Both infos are in my initial post. His BTN/SB VPIP was 67//65 so his BTN steal was 67 and his F3bet is 0 over 1 sample (the K3s hand)

I just think this spot is pure crap. Shoving doesn't seem to make any sense because I'm either crushed or not that far ahead and I don't know much about his raising ranges. Especially with our history and his image, I don't think I'll catch him bluffing here all that often.
Calling doesn't look like a very attractive option either. With his terrible raise size I'm committed anyway but even if he raised smaller, I don't think it changes things that much. I'm either crushed and will terribly get it in on the turn (calling a flop raise and folding the turn seems even worse) or he's giving up on a bluff, realizing his outs and potentially he could even bluff me on good river cards. Again I don't think I'll catch him bluffing the turn very often.
So the last option is folding which seems nitty given how often he has been raising and how strong my hand is in this scenario but it really seems like the best option unless I have more info. The ball is clearly in his court, he can put me to the test and I have to reveal the bottom of my range which is another metagame advantage for him.

[flippity]

If youre playing a player who raises a ton of bets, you should usually only bet if you have a clear decision about what to do if he raises.
So in this spot, i only bet after deciding wether its a clear bet/go with it or bet//fold (i would try to make an assumption on how many Qx/draws he raises here, which i cant really do given your description).

With his sizing it seems unlikely that he gives up on the turn, altho maybe its possible (depending on his range probably <20% of the time, and then you still have to make a riverdecision).

Your read that he gives up on his bluffs sometimes could make this a good spot to c/c c/c c/f.

On a sidenote:
A cbet w/ JJ here is usually either gonna set up a turn c/c (to catch floats), or a turnbet (cause people call so insanely light).

As played i would probably fold and not cbet hands like this in the future. You can also make some reads on his calling range when you assume he raises a bunch of top pairs here (!!!!!!), which allows you to barrel very light for value and as a bluff.

[wrap_it]

Originally Posted by flippity

If youre playing a player who raises a ton of bets, you should usually only bet if you have a clear decision about what to do if he raises.

This makes sense and I can definitely see a c/c with JJ here but if we go down to 99, 88, 77 our hand is still the best very very often but is much more vulnerable to a point where I really don't wanna c/c anymore.
Another thing is that I might face the same sort of guessing game if he bets on any two or even all three streets because he knows so much more about my range than I about his.

[flippity]

He actually doesnt have that many better hands than JJ on this board, and he can even vbet flops and turns with worse hands (and then check back river).
You should also have some read on his barreling tendencies. Either way, you should decide what guessing game is gonna be more profitable (cbet/call or ch/call).