NL50: river raise makes no sense

[banshee]

villain 53//51
open BTN: 35
limp: 18
l/c: 30
3b: 17

Definitely not terrible but kinda bad if you ask me. He also started out with a halfstack.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($55.68)
($65.25)

Dealt to Hero K Q

calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2.25, calls $1.75

FLOP ($4.50) A T K

Hero checks, checks

TURN ($4.50) A T K 7

Hero bets $3.50, calls $3.50

RIVER ($11.50) A T K 7 7

Hero bets $6, raises to $14.75, Hero ?

Generally it's pretty hard to assign people a range for limp/calling the BTN because preferences differ so much. However I still think his valuerange can only be sth like boats, the straight and maybe some trips. That said, boats are pretty unlikely unless it's sth like K7 that he decided to l/c and slowplay the turn with or T7s, a straight is completely unlikely as well and the only trip hands he could have are Q7, J7 and 7x of diamonds which he's not always limp/calling and probably not always raising the river with also.
On the other hand he might sometimes bluff missed diamonds or Qx, Jx (fishes love to bluff paired boards) so do you even mind looking him up pretty frequently?

I almost forgot to talk about my river plan: I'm obviously a bit concerned of a weak ace and I'm not sure I can get tons of value out of worse. At the same time I don't wanna check and give him the opportunity to bluff me off my hand (I should probably have c/c'd here because he doesn't have many broadways in his range but a ton of missed draws). Anyway, I decided to go for a kinda blocking bet which might have induced more action as well.

But still: Anypair is almost the same.

[Fuzzy Logic]

Bleh, it depends. In general however, unless he has been spewy aggro I'd just fold as this is rarely a bluff considering how the board ran out.

I would always bet if he was passive postflop or really spewy, so I will always have made my decision prior to being raised. Your blocking bet will not have induced, this guy is not smart enough to understand your bet-sizing tells.

[banshee]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy Logic

Your blocking bet will not have induced, this guy is not smart enough to understand your bet-sizing tells.

Well, he doesn't have to understand how my handrange looks like but just view a small bet as weak which is what many fishes especially maniacs do.

That said, it's probably true that it's not a board where we get bluffed a ton unless he is really horrible.

[mrrpb]

Folding is fine. His line is really weird but I think if we call we're going to be shown a better hand more often than not.

Unless he's been raising a lot of rivers previously. People at nl50 just don't really bluff on the river a lot, and when they do it's when they've 3barrelled in a meh spot.

[Unknown Soldier]

2 streets is too thin

[giveemhell]

i don't understand the flop check. it seems like this pot was lost when you let him "catch up" by giving him the free card. shouldn't we be betting 100% of our range here, even with the limp/call pre?